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Forums - Sales - The Damning Truth: The percentage of LTD sales sold in the first week

puffy said: 

Funny thing is the bundling of Sega Superstar Tennis and Kung Fu Panda only affected MeanAmountSold quantity, after rounding, by nothing! I also took into account Viva Pinata by moving the launch sales from 20k to 100k because I was unsure how long it had been bundled for.. The other titles won't have done much to the final results though I don't think.. As I said though.. There is a margin for error..

Also I hope you do find a few games that are inconsistant because we can then work out why they were different in each case and we'll be armed with even more info!

 The PS360 seems to have a number of exceptions to this rule. Amongst them Ninja Gaiden 2, Lost Odyssey, Dead Space (360), Sould Calibur 4 (PS3), Madden NFL 08 (PS3), andSOCOM: Confrontation all have bigger opening weeks and have yet to sell a million some are as close as .96, or as far as .77. My guess is these are just front loaded titles that show what I am tryig to say. Of course just a few exceptions don't really prove a whole lot, but I am just nitpicking.

 @Gergroy
 Read my posts again. Pay special attention to the last few lines. I really have no other response.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

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Munkeh111 said:
The mean percentage is wrong, you have used the total as 1m, instead of the average sales of a million seller

Hmm.. you sure?

I divided 525k by 2.37 Million and multiplied by 100 in the case of the 360

Isn't that right? correct me please if that's wrong, it's 4.20AM here :P



 

puffy said: 

I understand your objection to my argument and I mean a game can launch at 60,000 and end up hitting something like 3 million but I'm trying to show what the average title on a particular platform behaves like..

Anyway I think Pro Evo being 10k under the 111k and then ending up being 100k under the million actually does more to prove my accuracy :P Dragon Quest Sword on the other hand is one that works against my argument.. I think bad word of mouth could be a major reason behind that one..

 The answer to Dragon Quest: Swords is far simpler than that. It is an extremely front loaded game that is only popular in one region. The Japan opening week was somewhere around 324k. The American opening week was around 24k. Expecting to sell one million in one region is a bit much.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:
puffy said: 

Funny thing is the bundling of Sega Superstar Tennis and Kung Fu Panda only affected MeanAmountSold quantity, after rounding, by nothing! I also took into account Viva Pinata by moving the launch sales from 20k to 100k because I was unsure how long it had been bundled for.. The other titles won't have done much to the final results though I don't think.. As I said though.. There is a margin for error..

Also I hope you do find a few games that are inconsistant because we can then work out why they were different in each case and we'll be armed with even more info!

 The PS360 seems to have a number of exceptions to this rule. Amongst them Ninja Gaiden 2, Lost Odyssey, Dead Space (360), Sould Calibur 4 (PS3), Madden NFL 08 (PS3), andSOCOM: Confrontation all have bigger opening weeks and have yet to sell a million some are as close as .96, or as far as .77. My guess is these are just front loaded titles that show what I am tryig to say. Of course just a few exceptions don't really prove a whole lot, but I am just nitpicking.

 @Gergroy
 Read my posts again. Pay special attention to the last few lines. I really have no other response.

 

Hmmm well in support of my data it could be that these haven't stopped selling just yet and in support of your argument well the numbers don't lie do they? I would say Madden is one that's front loaded.. Ninja Gaiden I'd have no idea to be honest.. If it sold a lot at launch in Japan (sounds japanese) then I'd expect that to play with the results a little bit.. SOCOM no idea.. SC4.. No clue.. Dead Space? I'd expect that one to be close to a million surely? That's not an old game, it'll still be selling

EDIT: Well you seem to have more knowledge on the reasons why these games didn't follow the pattern in the OP.. So I'll leave that stuff to you :P



 

puffy said:
Munkeh111 said:
The mean percentage is wrong, you have used the total as 1m, instead of the average sales of a million seller

Hmm.. you sure?

I divided 525k by 2.37 Million and multiplied by 100 in the case of the 360

Isn't that right? correct me please if that's wrong, it's 4.20AM here :P

I thought you were doing the average 1st week sales/average total sales... but it looks like you have divided 1st week sales by 1m then x 100.... I have been doing geography revision and it makes your brain work in weird ways...



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Legend: Just because you don't like the conclusion, you shouldn't just come in here criticizing the site with absolutely zero basis. This is an average so unless you are trying to claim that there's some systemic bias in our data that overestimates Wii games and underestimates 360/PS3 games in the long term (in which case how about showing some evidence instead of making unsubstantiated accusations) then the conclusion drawn here is mostly valid - in general, Wii games have double the legs of 360/PS3 games.



puffy said: 

Hmmm well in support of my data it could be that these haven't stopped selling just yet and in support of your argument well the numbers don't lie do they? I would say Madden is one that's front loaded.. Ninja Gaiden I'd have no idea to be honest.. If it sold a lot at launch in Japan (sounds japanese) then I'd expect that to play with the results a little bit.. SOCOM no idea.. SC4.. No clue.. Dead Space? I'd expect that one to be close to a million surely? That's not an old game, it'll still be selling

EDIT: Well you seem to have more knowledge on the reasons why these games didn't follow the pattern in the OP.. So I'll leave that stuff to you :P

 Dead Space is relatively new, but it is at .77 which is a long way from a million at this point. Looking at the date again you might be right though. I tried to select games that wouldn't continue selling anymore, but that one seems to have slipped though. Ninja Gaiden 2 is mostly a western titles. My guess is that the game is a front loaded title, but it is close by. I just found it strange that the PS360 had more readily available counter examples than the Wii. Still trying to decide if thats just a random coincidence.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Gnizmo said:

 Dead Space is relatively new, but it is at .77 which is a long way from a million at this point. Looking at the date again you might be right though. I tried to select games that wouldn't continue selling anymore, but that one seems to have slipped though. Ninja Gaiden 2 is mostly a western titles. My guess is that the game is a front loaded title, but it is close by. I just found it strange that the PS360 had more readily available counter examples than the Wii. Still trying to decide if thats just a random coincidence.

It could be competition? I mean Wii has a certain lack of.. well.. good games.. and the HD consoles seem flooded with them so it could stop the legs of titles on thoses systems quite quickly? Just a thought.. 

Well I guess the number is less reliable for the PS3 and 360 than it is for Wii.. I mean it's still only an average of million sellers.. I knew there would be games that didn't follow the rules :P

 



 

puffy said:
Gnizmo said:

 Dead Space is relatively new, but it is at .77 which is a long way from a million at this point. Looking at the date again you might be right though. I tried to select games that wouldn't continue selling anymore, but that one seems to have slipped though. Ninja Gaiden 2 is mostly a western titles. My guess is that the game is a front loaded title, but it is close by. I just found it strange that the PS360 had more readily available counter examples than the Wii. Still trying to decide if thats just a random coincidence.

It could be competition? I mean Wii has a certain lack of.. well.. good games.. and the HD consoles seem flooded with them so it could stop the legs of titles on thoses systems quite quickly? Just a thought.. 

Well I guess the number is less reliable for the PS3 and 360 than it is for Wii.. I mean it's still only an average of million sellers.. I knew there would be games that didn't follow the rules :P

 

to be fair, most of the ps360 titles he found will most likely hit a million.  SC4 is only .3 away from selling over a million on the ps3, and has already sold past that on the 360.  Dead space is still new and can still make it to a million.  It is still a 60 dollar game after all, it isn't going off the shelves anytime soon.  Ninja Gaiden should hit as well, according to tecmo, they have already sold 1.10 million to retailers, so those titles should eventually sell and drive it over a million.

so that leaves maddon 08 ps3, socom ps3 and lost oddysey xbox 360.  All of them are pretty region focused titles, so that is probably where the exception to your averages come into play.  Games that heavily favor one region over the others may not follow the same pattern.  Specifically when the region they focus on is where the hardware is underperforming. ps3 in america and 360 in japan.

 



Nice work puffy.

Now can we trust those numbers lol, because I'm about to memorize them.

X360 22%
PS3 23%
Wii 11% (!)

Although the Wii number seems lower than it is in practice, because that number included Wii Sports and Wii Play (who have insane legs for obvious reasons).