By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - The Damning Truth: The percentage of LTD sales sold in the first week

Gnizmo on 19 April 2009
Legend11 said: 

Having numbers that are similar means nothing since they both could be off or just one.  You talk about similar patterns but that doesn't hold true for every game.  If it did it would mean one console's games would always sell better than the other's and I can easily point out different games where that isn't the case.

I'll repeat what I've already said, we have no way of knowing if most of the numbers for non-charting games are accurate.

 It would not mean one console's games would sell better than the others. It would mean on average a game will perform a certain way. As an example, you can expect a game that opens at 200k on the Wii and 360 to have greater lifetime sales on the Wii based on this data. If you want to show some examples to the contrary then be my guest, but I suspect you won't find many.

 As for the non-charting games, well you are on VGChartz. You either trust the data here, or are on the wrong site. If you don't think they are generally accurate why do you bother to show up at all? I can understand slepticism when it comes to software, but there are updates made regularly. Further, this should affect all systems evenly so it should not have a big effect on therelative rankings.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

Around the Network
Gnizmo on 19 April 2009
puffy said: 

Maybe so however it's an average and there are always going to be outliers or times that the number needs a modifier of some sort.. An example is if you are looking at a sequel it is usually always more front loaded and if a sequel does the same or worse in the first week/month it can be almost instantly concluded that it will actually do worse overall than the last game in the series. I'm not trying to give all the answers as nobody can 100% mathematically predict the sales of a game but we can see a few things very clearly from the results.. The major one being the difference in sales patterns in Wii and HD consoles. That was the key argument I was trying to support/disprove and I think, to me, it supports the argument that calling Wii games a flop after only a week of sales is ridiculous.. These numbers point to that being the case.

For me to go through every game that launched with similar numbers but failed to make a million would be a MASSIVE task and so my numbers will stand as they are.

 As seen in my edit I am poking through trying to find the exceptions. The problem is the average doesn't mean quite what you think it does. It proves that most games that sold a million on the Wii sold at or below 111k. It does not mean the reverse is true as well though. I am not saying it is wrong, but I am saying the math you have can't claim that with any kind of authority if that makes sense. I am not suggesting to go through and check all the games, but I do feel the need to point out the slight error in the conclusion. You prove your main point either way.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

SaviorX on 19 April 2009

Nice efforts. It just goes to show that legs aren't just a myth to appease disappointed fanboys.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

JerzeeBalla on 19 April 2009

Great work man, as a stats junkie I can appreciate the work you put into this. I wonder how many of those million sellers were above or below that average?



I am a gamer. Not a fanboy, not a troll, a gamer. So when you dont like what I have to say, remember this fact.

gergroy on 19 April 2009
Gnizmo said:

There is one major flaw with your final conclusion that I almost hate to point out. Without showing how many games opened with similar number and yet failed to make a million its not safe to say games opening to those numbers will make a million. Unfortunately the number needs a bit of additional work to make the last jump there.

 Edit: In principle I stand behind this statement. In actuality I am havign trouble findign even a couple games per system that would buck this trend definitively. Sometimes solid logic can lead you to somewhat misleading conclusions. I will continue to look around.

 As another though you might want to modify some of the 360 data as well. Lego Indiana Jones, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, and one of the Viva Pinata games (likely the best selling one) were all bundled for a decent bit of time. On the flip side Halo 3 should also probably be tossed out for skewing the data way too far in the other direction. Similar problems arise for Motorstorm on the PS3, but I don't think the one game will skew it too much.

seems to work pretty well as an average.  I don't think the OP meant these numbers to be the end all be all of stats, but merely a guideline of how one might actually go about predicting sales a little bit more accurately.  I find it all very interesting.

 



Around the Network
puffy on 19 April 2009
Gnizmo said:

There is one major flaw with your final conclusion that I almost hate to point out. Without showing how many games opened with similar number and yet failed to make a million its not safe to say games opening to those numbers will make a million. Unfortunately the number needs a bit of additional work to make the last jump there.

 Edit: In principle I stand behind this statement. In actuality I am havign trouble findign even a couple games per system that would buck this trend definitively. Sometimes solid logic can lead you to somewhat misleading conclusions. I will continue to look around.

 As another though you might want to modify some of the 360 data as well. Lego Indiana Jones, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, and one of the Viva Pinata games (likely the best selling one) were all bundled for a decent bit of time. On the flip side Halo 3 should also probably be tossed out for skewing the data way too far in the other direction. Similar problems arise for Motorstorm on the PS3, but I don't think the one game will skew it too much.

 

Funny thing is the bundling of Sega Superstar Tennis and Kung Fu Panda only affected MeanAmountSold quantity, after rounding, by nothing! I also took into account Viva Pinata by moving the launch sales from 20k to 100k because I was unsure how long it had been bundled for.. The other titles won't have done much to the final results though I don't think.. As I said though.. There is a margin for error..

Also I hope you do find a few games that are inconsistant because we can then work out why they were different in each case and we'll be armed with even more info! 



 

Gnizmo on 19 April 2009

So far I have Pro Evo Soccer 2008 for the Wii at 101k opening week, but it is at .9 million anyways so not a strong counter example there. The only good one is Dragon Quest: Swords which opened at over 300k anad has only managed 600k.Both of these are pretty easy to understand why they are exceptions. As I said this is mostly an academic objection.



Starcraft 2 ID: Gnizmo 229

gergroy on 19 April 2009
Gnizmo said:
puffy said: 

Maybe so however it's an average and there are always going to be outliers or times that the number needs a modifier of some sort.. An example is if you are looking at a sequel it is usually always more front loaded and if a sequel does the same or worse in the first week/month it can be almost instantly concluded that it will actually do worse overall than the last game in the series. I'm not trying to give all the answers as nobody can 100% mathematically predict the sales of a game but we can see a few things very clearly from the results.. The major one being the difference in sales patterns in Wii and HD consoles. That was the key argument I was trying to support/disprove and I think, to me, it supports the argument that calling Wii games a flop after only a week of sales is ridiculous.. These numbers point to that being the case.

For me to go through every game that launched with similar numbers but failed to make a million would be a MASSIVE task and so my numbers will stand as they are.

 As seen in my edit I am poking through trying to find the exceptions. The problem is the average doesn't mean quite what you think it does. It proves that most games that sold a million on the Wii sold at or below 111k. It does not mean the reverse is true as well though. I am not saying it is wrong, but I am saying the math you have can't claim that with any kind of authority if that makes sense. I am not suggesting to go through and check all the games, but I do feel the need to point out the slight error in the conclusion. You prove your main point either way.

I think you are being a little overly critical Gnizmo.  You can see how these stats might be useful in predicting the probability of a game reaching 1 million units sold yes?  The op is just saying if it sells these figures it has a good chance of hitting a million units sold. 

Obviously there are going to be issues with this, as games are still selling and can still make it to a million units sold over a long period of time.  Also the more hardware out there equals lower number of first week sales required to hit a million as games will have more legs. 

As it stands right now, this is a good guideline you can look at and say "hey, this game has a good chance of selling a million units." 

 



puffy on 19 April 2009
Gnizmo said:
So far I have Pro Evo Soccer 2008 for the Wii at 101k opening week, but it is at .9 million anyways so not a strong counter example there. The only good one is Dragon Quest: Swords which opened at over 300k anad has only managed 600k.Both of these are pretty easy to understand why they are exceptions. As I said this is mostly an academic objection.

 

I understand your objection to my argument and I mean a game can launch at 60,000 and end up hitting something like 3 million but I'm trying to show what the average title on a particular platform behaves like..

Anyway I think Pro Evo being 10k under the 111k and then ending up being 100k under the million actually does more to prove my accuracy :P Dragon Quest Sword on the other hand is one that works against my argument.. I think bad word of mouth could be a major reason behind that one..



 

Munkeh111 on 19 April 2009

The mean percentage is wrong, you have used the total as 1m, instead of the average sales of a million seller