hmm well i was very sure it would, particularly as i think ps3 will be selling [decent numbers] at least 2 years after 360 [thats 1 year longer life].
A while ago i thought it was probably going to overtake during both consoles life,... now i'm less sure but i'm going to go and say fall 2009, at which time i expect ps3 to be doubling 360 sales p/wk. but Wii will still be selling almost 1.5 times ps3 [rather than the current 2.5]

It definetly will, but it will take a while.

The 360 will never be a success in japan and the PS3 will which will give it a massive advantage. If you look back at last generation, the PS2 sold more in japan alone than the xbox did worldwide. I doubt the exact same will happen this gen, but it will have a massive effect on global sales figures.

The 360s worst enemy is its own userbase. the majority of them shun anything that doesnt involve killing/shooting or driving and while this is all well and good for the time being, theres only so many consumers that want to play those games.

The PS3, even at its high price will eventually offer a far wider range of titles than M$, as mentioned already, Buzz, Singstar, Guitar Hero and so on are already well extablished on the brand and while M$ may have some of those, or atleast something comparable, the average 360 owner doesnt even want to know.

M$ are stuck with the machine as it is now, filling a part of the market very very well, but unluckily for them that part of the market is a small % of the whole market, untill they can break the mold and sell other game styles to new customer, they are ultimatly faced with hitting a cieling where they satisfy their current target market.

i think it will because it has huge games in all three regions.

In Japan it has FFXIII, most of the other FF games on PS2 sold between 2m-4m.

In Europe it has GT5 which is absolutely huge! GT4 sold 5M in Europe alone making it bigger than any DQ or FF game in Japan. GT3 also sold over 7M in the America's so its massive in that region too.

Although in the America's I dont think the PS2 has a game on the scale of Halo there are an amazing combination of big games, such as MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, KZ2.

There are also multi platform games such as GTA4 and lots of brand new IP's like Heavenly sword, uncharted, white knight story etc.

I dont think the 360 has any exclusive games on the same scale as the PS3 exclusives apart from Halo 3, and thats only massive in America. In the end I think Europe and Japan will make sure Ps3 outsells xbox 360's. I am predicting it will happen in July 2009.

Yes it will in o8 IFF and only the PS3 will get his killer games before June o8 . Than it will have the entire summer to boost itself in all 3 regions . If not than I would say that only in o9 , and lifetime difference of max 1o million consoles .

Once the big 5 are out for Sony(GTA4,GT5,FF13,KZ2,MGS4) it will only be a matter of time before the PS3 overtakes the 360, add-in games like ratchet&clank, jak&daxter,HSG5 and it will come sooner.

This may be 360's american year yet again, but I expect that the ps3 is going to outsell it in europe and japan by a large margin the rest of the year.

I'm really not sure if the PS3 will ever pass the 360 in worldwide sales. If you had asked me the question at the beginning of this year, I would have said yes for certain, but now I don't know. We're nine months into this year and the PS3 has made essentially zero inroads into the 360's lead; the two of them are pretty much right where they started, with the 360 having a lead of 6+ million units. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence in me as to the long-term chances of the PS3 surpassing its rival.

The PS3 will not pass the 360 in sales this year, that's absolutely clear. The 360 will probably increase its lead this holiday season, if anything. 2008 also looks highly unlikely. If the 360 stopped selling right now and never sold another unit, the PS3 still would not pass it at its current sales rate until late 2008. (PS3 is doing about 100k sales/week; it's behind by 6.32 million units, so that would take 63 weeks to surpass - November 2008!) Since that's obviously not going to happen, we can pretty safely assume that the crossover won't take place in 2008. Even if PS3 sales DOUBLE, in every market and every region, it still won't catch the 360 in 2008. Sorry, Sony fans, but it's not going to happen next year.

That leaves 2009 or later, which are so far in the future at this point that it's almost impossible to forsee. I really don't know what the market will look like 2 years from now, which is why I'm just going to make a random guess that there's a 50/50 shot of the PS3 eventually surpassing the 360. I really don't think that the PS3 will ever surpass the 360 in the American market, so if the crossover takes place, it will have to be on the strength of the Japanese and European markets.

Most of those arguing for a humongous PS3 sales surge are listing various games that will come out in the future. But, if you've been watching the charts here for a long period of time, you should be aware that software titles rarely have a significant impact on hardware sales. Usually sales surge for a week or two, then return to normal levels. No matter how great game ____ may be, it won't suddenly transform a struggling console into the market leader position. (Just ask the N64!) Crunching numbers may be a less interesting way of predicting future sales than listing exclusive games, but it's a lot more accurate.

Didn´t we do this thread like one or two times ???

Anyway congratulations on a flame-free thread till now.

I´m really not that sure anymore weather the PS3 will catch the 360 in 09, I think 08 is out of the question, I can see how Sony will have many great games in 08 but people pretend that after this Xmas Microsoft and Nintendo will wake up and remember they have no games for 08, sure the PS3 will have the heavy hitters during springtime, but that doesn´t mean they will dominate the whole year. 

2008 will be interesting to see how fast the PS3 can gain ground, if it doesn´t take of fast it might take deep into 2009 or even early 2010 to catch the 360. This is of course all speculation at this point, the only thing I know for sure is it will not catch the 360 in 08.

I think it is still too early in the war...

Until both hardware are the same price (or within $20 of each other), and the PS3 gets its main AAA titles out, things are up in the air.

You can speculate, but it won't go anywhere until then.

eh I don't think these "big 5" are going to make as much of a difference as people are assuming,
gra 4 is also on xbox 360 and the biggest of the games and really is the ultimately a casual game (face it most players and suburban wannabee's that think there big because they can shoot virtual cops)
FF13, this should be interesting, final fantasies have always come out on hardware with a strong installed base, what's going to happen when it doesn't, the same could be said about the rest of the games, mgs, gt5, KZ2
note regardless of my belief that the ps3 will not over take the 360 I'm going to say that I think Killzone 2 will be a far more enjoyable game than Halo 3, since the massive graphics issues are what really held back the first game (i.e. terriblely inconsistent framerate and draw distences outside)