leo-j said: Hus has a point, the psp is going to sell 35million by year's end not by 2012, simple the FF VII psp will sell out in japan, and the D VADER/SPIDERMAN psp's will sell out in europe and North america, also I believe that alot of the normal psp owners might transition to the slim psp, just like most of the old ds owners.

what! assuming you are using vgc numbers that means you think psp will sell a further 12 million by years end. The DS i think should manage somewhere between 11 and 13 million, the psp has no chance, it won't break 30 million sales. [should manage 30m shipments cos sony will want to announce that number, same as MS did with 10.4mil 360s] oh and neither PGR nor Forza will outdo GT. Even concentrating on USA where 360 is big i doubt it. WW no chance. finally, ps3 has little hope of surpassing 360 ltd in 08.

For the simple fact that the PS3 was able to almost match monthly sales of the 360 in one month at $500, with really no new games released when the price dropped tells you something. There is a good chance of a $400 PS3 (with no games at the moment of the drop) outselling the 360. So to say that a $500 PS3 with a new good game or two worth playing outselling the 360 is quite possible.

Yet what could detract good points of my statement would be the 360 being at $350 right now, but we'll have to see when the August NPD comes out.

If the PS3 starts selling like the Wii worldwide, it'll have no problem passing the 360 next year.

*sniff*

Now, who thinks that'll happen?

No

kn said: Hus said: kn said: So... take recent sales histories, take out your fanboy beliefs, project forward a bit and it is going to come down to, in my opinion, U.S. beating PS3 for the forseeable future, Europe split *fairly* close over time, and Japan solidly behind the PS3. How long will it take, then? Europe flip fairly even, tell me what does the 360 have in 08 to combat GranTurismo5 in Europe ? GTA is multi so in a "even" Europe the tag team of GTA and GT is a monster to beat. Point to conside r- Even now PS3 is outselling the 360 in Germany, Italy and Spain. Thats a 185million market, half of western that seems to be for whatever reason not very 360 friendly. Fact is at half the price and with a Euro froendly game like Forza2 out already the 360 should be having no trouble outselling the PS3 in every single European market. You were doing fine with your first sentence, Hus, but then your fanboy nature got the better of you. You are (again) betting on one game (GT5) to be the deciding factor in this race. This has proven to be a bad assumption on both sides repeatedly. Don't look to a few regions in Europe. Look at Europe as a whole and add up the sales. There will always be spots that play to one side or the other.

Before X360 price drop PS3 outsold X360 every week (Price different 200€). PS3 has huge potential in europe. Sony only needs to drop price.

@selnor saied
"""games I want on PS3. FFXIII? Ill take Mistwalker thanks. fresh and new. GTA IV downloadable content only on LIVE.
I bought my 360 december 2005. never had a problem.""

==> you are talking about yourself.
I talk about market.
- Mistwalker agaisnt StarOcean4/FFXIII ?
- 2 GTA IV add-on agaisnt 2 fresh and new exclusive games ?

KillerMan said: kn said: Hus said: kn said: So... take recent sales histories, take out your fanboy beliefs, project forward a bit and it is going to come down to, in my opinion, U.S. beating PS3 for the forseeable future, Europe split *fairly* close over time, and Japan solidly behind the PS3. How long will it take, then? Europe flip fairly even, tell me what does the 360 have in 08 to combat GranTurismo5 in Europe ? GTA is multi so in a "even" Europe the tag team of GTA and GT is a monster to beat. Point to conside r- Even now PS3 is outselling the 360 in Germany, Italy and Spain. Thats a 185million market, half of western that seems to be for whatever reason not very 360 friendly. Fact is at half the price and with a Euro froendly game like Forza2 out already the 360 should be having no trouble outselling the PS3 in every single European market. You were doing fine with your first sentence, Hus, but then your fanboy nature got the better of you. You are (again) betting on one game (GT5) to be the deciding factor in this race. This has proven to be a bad assumption on both sides repeatedly. Don't look to a few regions in Europe. Look at Europe as a whole and add up the sales. There will always be spots that play to one side or the other. Before X360 price drop PS3 outsold X360 every week (Price different 200€). PS3 has huge potential in europe. Sony only needs to drop price.

Yep, outsold until recently by 5K-10K units on average for all "others".  That's hardly worth noting and if you look back at my previous post, I said "split fairly close" in Europe which is where we are at the moment.  5-10K on average per week -- call it 7500 average -- is 30K/month for Europe plus others.  It would be years to catch up in europe based on that number.  I'm sure that the hardware issues with the 360 have had a significant effect on the box and I'm assuming that a redesigned unit will overcome some of that, but that is pure conjecture on my part.

Since noone wants to take the time, I pulled weekly "All World" data through last few months.  Here are the numbers I got from VG Chartz.  Keep in mind I kept the numbers as close to the months I could -- i.e. they may not align with NPD with one week spilling into the next.  I tried to keep all of may, for instance in may and so on.

 

May
Xbox 360	362097
PS3	319409

 

June
Xbox 360	312714
PS3	231628

 

July
Xbox 360	259443
PS3	344629

August
Xbox 360	488486
PS3	478394

 

From this, I get the following total over the last 4 months.

 

Xbox 360	1422740
PS3	1374060

 

And a per month average (worldwide) of:

 

Xbox 360	355685
PS3	343515

Since that still has the 360 in the lead, the obvious answer is never.  I'm not going to do the math -- maybe ioi can give us the tools to download data to a spreadsheet so that we can do more complex analysis, but it is a pain in the ass to pull everything down week by week and build a sheet when all the data is sitting right there.  A true moving average would be nice but a lot of work.  But, given the above, you get the impression that the PS3 has an uphill battle if the idea of "passing" the 360 is the goal.  Even if the numbers above were reversed, 11K/month would take 35 years or more to close the gap.

I'm not bashing the PS3 though I'm sure Hus, Leo, and everyone else will tell me how blind I am, but the numbers are what they are.  Until the PS3 mounts a significant, and lasting, leap in sales above the 360, we can begin to guess the timeframe.  We haven't reached that point, yet, and it doesn't exactly appear likely any time soon.  It certainly isn't going to happen through the end of this year for sure.  To think that the PS3 might catch the 360 next year would mean the PS3 on a worldwide basis will have to start outselling the 360 on a monthly basis by 100s of thousands.  There is currently a 6 million unit gap.  That means 500K units overall PER MONTH OVER the 360 would be required to catch it in a year.  That's just lunacy to belive that is going to happen any time soon.  If it's going to happen -- and that's a big if -- I wouldn't count on seeing it get close until 2009 at the earliest.

But again, I use math, and not fanboy conjecture.  I'm sure that the blind fanboys will tell me that X game will make the difference -- i.e. GT will turn the tide, or a pricecut will turn the tide, or a blue-ray victory will do it, or so many other baseless arguments.  The reality is in the sales numbers, folks.  Plain and simple.  For every action there is a reaction.  If sony cuts their price, so will Microsoft.  For every uber game the PS3 releases, there is a title on the 360 that does just as well.  Don't think MS will stand by and watch Sony try every strategy under the sun to blow past MS without microsoft pulling out all stops to counter. 

The ps3 has managed to keep pace with the 360 thus far, despite having piss-poor games and a $150 higher price tag. Once the price drops to $400 and the "big four" (GT5, MGS4, FFXIII, and Tekken 6, all 4 mil. plus sellers on average) hit next year, the ps3 will begin to dominate the 360 in sales across the globe.

makingmusic476 said: The ps3 has managed to keep pace with the 360 despite having piss-poor games and a $150 higher price tag. Once the price drops to $400 and the "big four" (GT5, MGS4, FFXIII, and Tekken 6, all 4 mil. plus sellers on average) hit next year, the ps3 will begin to dominate the 360 in sales across the globe.

Ok, but once the rodd issue is fixed, wont that that boost sales?

Wont having huge games this fall boost 360 as well?

Seriously guys, your saying that ps3 will dominate because of games, but every system has fantastic games and to say one console will get the true boost is just stupid.

Also if ps3 drops price to 400 (not for a long time) you can bet microsoft will drop to 250 or less

I believe the ps3 has a chance of overtaking the 360, but it needs to act now and fast, games will not save a console if its to far in the hole