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Forums - Sales Discussion - Could Halo Wars possibly outsell the much more hyped KZ2 in first two month

Jereel Hunter on 13 February 2009
RPG said:

I would be shocked if it does not, this is the power of the Halo name. I do however expect a LOT of used copies in a month though, I expect a front loaded game with Halo Wars and legs for Killzone 2.

 

I expect just the opposite, actually. Halo Wars is not being hyped, is getting great word of mouth on the demo, and is getting fantastic reviews. Those three combine for legs. KZ2 on the other hand I expect to be frontloaded, because anyone who knows about it and it hyped about it will get it up front... One of the big things that helps legs in FPS games are friends... playing it Coop or split screen at a friend's house... I think the lack of those will hurt its legs, because when someone's over a friend's house, instead of playing KZ2 and getting interested, they'll play something 2+ player.



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blue-lady on 13 February 2009
Kantor said:
TacoBoy49 said:
Why would Halo Wars not have long legs? Halo 2 and Halo 3 had incredibly long legs. Halo 3 is still selling like it was launched last November. MGS 4 ran out of breath after 2 short months. Halo Wars will sell for a long time also. Halo brand is evergreen like Mario.

Because it's an RTS! On a console! It could be brilliant! It still won't sell Halo FPS numbers!

@seece: Oh, really? You know that Halo Wars is an RTS because you are an educated, intelligent 360 owner. Quite a few people are not. In fact, Makingmusic was telling us that somebody walked into his GameStop and asked if you could dual wield energy swords...

People will still buy it, because it has the word "Halo" and a bunch of Spartans on the front cover, and a little bit because it's actually a damned good game, but it's sales will be hurt by the fact that it's an RTS. On a console.

I don't see what MGS4 has to do with this, to be honest. It's a niche game in a niche genre, in a niche series which happens to have ahuge fanbase. It's destined to be frontloaded. An FPS is never frontloaded. CoD4 (I know not all FPS games sell like this, but for argument's sake) on PS3 sold 450k first week. Not a bad number, not very impressive. Pretty average.

It is now sitting at over 4 million sales LTD. It shows no signs of losing steam, even when a sequel has been released. It can easily do 10x its first week sales, but it's all proportional. The higher the first week, the lower the ratio of the first week to lifetime.

So, to restate what I said earlier,

First week: Halo Wars

First month: Halo Wars

First two months: Probably Halo Wars

Lifetime: Killzone 2.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, but there's a chance that you're wrong as well.

May I ask, what reasoning are you using to suppose Killzone 2 will have such tremendous legs?

 



 

 

TacoBoy49 on 13 February 2009

@ rpuret. First of all, the Wii's userbase is huge because of games like Wii sports and Wii fit. Not the other way around. Second, I do believe Halo Wars is gonna open the flood gates for console rts games the way Halo Ce did for console fps games. Remember when people kept saying a real fps game could only be played with a key board and mouse? There will be crap loads of console rts games after developers see the sucess of Halo Wars. Sony will respond to it with their own just like they did to Halo with Killzone.



Sardauk on 13 February 2009

From what I saw from the demo, it is an accessible high production value game, its RTS nature comes after.

IMO it will attract a lot of people into the RTS world.

Note that, if you check the achievement list, Halo Wars takes also the bet to be a multiplayer experience, aiming at a new large community.I would't be suprised to see the game live like Halo 3 and www.bungie.net.

http://www.xbox360achievements.org/game/halo-wars/achievements/

... there is also an achevement called "ready for the sequel"



 

Evan Wells (Uncharted 2): I think the differences that you see between any two games has much more to do with the developer than whether it’s on the Xbox or PS3.

Kantor on 13 February 2009
blue-lady said:
Kantor said:
TacoBoy49 said:
Why would Halo Wars not have long legs? Halo 2 and Halo 3 had incredibly long legs. Halo 3 is still selling like it was launched last November. MGS 4 ran out of breath after 2 short months. Halo Wars will sell for a long time also. Halo brand is evergreen like Mario.

Because it's an RTS! On a console! It could be brilliant! It still won't sell Halo FPS numbers!

@seece: Oh, really? You know that Halo Wars is an RTS because you are an educated, intelligent 360 owner. Quite a few people are not. In fact, Makingmusic was telling us that somebody walked into his GameStop and asked if you could dual wield energy swords...

People will still buy it, because it has the word "Halo" and a bunch of Spartans on the front cover, and a little bit because it's actually a damned good game, but it's sales will be hurt by the fact that it's an RTS. On a console.

I don't see what MGS4 has to do with this, to be honest. It's a niche game in a niche genre, in a niche series which happens to have ahuge fanbase. It's destined to be frontloaded. An FPS is never frontloaded. CoD4 (I know not all FPS games sell like this, but for argument's sake) on PS3 sold 450k first week. Not a bad number, not very impressive. Pretty average.

It is now sitting at over 4 million sales LTD. It shows no signs of losing steam, even when a sequel has been released. It can easily do 10x its first week sales, but it's all proportional. The higher the first week, the lower the ratio of the first week to lifetime.

So, to restate what I said earlier,

First week: Halo Wars

First month: Halo Wars

First two months: Probably Halo Wars

Lifetime: Killzone 2.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, but there's a chance that you're wrong as well.

May I ask, what reasoning are you using to suppose Killzone 2 will have such tremendous legs?

 

It's a AAA (God, I hate that word) war FPS with tons of blood and enemies with orange eyes. People are saying it's an improved CoD4. It's not, but if that's what people think, it's what they think.

What reasoning are you using to suppose that it won't?

EDIT: Killzone 2 will not have CoD4 legs. Seriously. It will not sell ten times its first week sales. But it will beat the first week of CoD4.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

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kitler53 on 13 February 2009

if halo wars doesn't outsell kz2 consider halo wars a failure.

halo3 (which is the same fanbase halo wars is marketed towards) sold 9M. the absolute best selling ps3 game is GTA at 5.4 M.

I think the best kz2 can hope for is around 4M and the anything under 4M would be huge disappointment for a game with the word "halo" in it.



blue-lady on 13 February 2009
Kantor said:
blue-lady said:
Kantor said:
TacoBoy49 said:
Why would Halo Wars not have long legs? Halo 2 and Halo 3 had incredibly long legs. Halo 3 is still selling like it was launched last November. MGS 4 ran out of breath after 2 short months. Halo Wars will sell for a long time also. Halo brand is evergreen like Mario.

Because it's an RTS! On a console! It could be brilliant! It still won't sell Halo FPS numbers!

@seece: Oh, really? You know that Halo Wars is an RTS because you are an educated, intelligent 360 owner. Quite a few people are not. In fact, Makingmusic was telling us that somebody walked into his GameStop and asked if you could dual wield energy swords...

People will still buy it, because it has the word "Halo" and a bunch of Spartans on the front cover, and a little bit because it's actually a damned good game, but it's sales will be hurt by the fact that it's an RTS. On a console.

I don't see what MGS4 has to do with this, to be honest. It's a niche game in a niche genre, in a niche series which happens to have ahuge fanbase. It's destined to be frontloaded. An FPS is never frontloaded. CoD4 (I know not all FPS games sell like this, but for argument's sake) on PS3 sold 450k first week. Not a bad number, not very impressive. Pretty average.

It is now sitting at over 4 million sales LTD. It shows no signs of losing steam, even when a sequel has been released. It can easily do 10x its first week sales, but it's all proportional. The higher the first week, the lower the ratio of the first week to lifetime.

So, to restate what I said earlier,

First week: Halo Wars

First month: Halo Wars

First two months: Probably Halo Wars

Lifetime: Killzone 2.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, but there's a chance that you're wrong as well.

May I ask, what reasoning are you using to suppose Killzone 2 will have such tremendous legs?

It's a AAA (God, I hate that word) war FPS with tons of blood and enemies with orange eyes. People are saying it's an improved CoD4. It's not, but if that's what people think, it's what they think.

What reasoning are you using to suppose that it won't?

EDIT: Killzone 2 will not have CoD4 legs. Seriously. It will not sell ten times its first week sales. But it will beat the first week of CoD4.

I don't think this game will have legs beyond the next six months.

It'll only last till the next big shooter.  Multiplatform or otherwise.

 



 

 

Rpruett on 13 February 2009
TacoBoy49 said:
@ rpuret. First of all, the Wii's userbase is huge because of games like Wii sports and Wii fit. Not the other way around. Second, I do believe Halo Wars is gonna open the flood gates for console rts games the way Halo Ce did for console fps games. Remember when people kept saying a real fps game could only be played with a key board and mouse? There will be crap loads of console rts games after developers see the sucess of Halo Wars. Sony will respond to it with their own just like they did to Halo with Killzone.

 

People say that still to this day that PC FPS is better than Console FPS.  Hell,  the best FPS you can play IMHO are played on a PC.  Although consoles are fun as well.  FPS isn't just a PC genre.  RTS doesn't necessarily have to be just a PC genre, but the controls really limit it.

Certainly you don't believe that Halo Ce opened the flood gates for console shooters,  do you?  Goldeneye 007 / Perfect Dark were FAR, FAR, more influential than Halo Ce.  And you are absolutely delusional if you think otherwise.

 

I don't think it's crazy to say that Halo Wars might outsell Kill Zone 2.  Not in the slightest.  When you factor in Sony's core userbase (Europe/Japan) compared to Microsoft's core userbase (America),  the total overall userbase.   I just don't believe the sales for Halo Wars will last.  I think a lot of average buyers will buy Halo Wars based on some preconceived notion as to what the game is and many (With that notion) will be disappointed. 

I think Halo Wars will sell around 4 million total.   Kill Zone 2,  I'm not sure yet.   I certainly think it will reach 4 million lifetime though.

 

 



Kantor on 13 February 2009
blue-lady said:
Kantor said:
blue-lady said:
Kantor said:
TacoBoy49 said:
Why would Halo Wars not have long legs? Halo 2 and Halo 3 had incredibly long legs. Halo 3 is still selling like it was launched last November. MGS 4 ran out of breath after 2 short months. Halo Wars will sell for a long time also. Halo brand is evergreen like Mario.

Because it's an RTS! On a console! It could be brilliant! It still won't sell Halo FPS numbers!

@seece: Oh, really? You know that Halo Wars is an RTS because you are an educated, intelligent 360 owner. Quite a few people are not. In fact, Makingmusic was telling us that somebody walked into his GameStop and asked if you could dual wield energy swords...

People will still buy it, because it has the word "Halo" and a bunch of Spartans on the front cover, and a little bit because it's actually a damned good game, but it's sales will be hurt by the fact that it's an RTS. On a console.

I don't see what MGS4 has to do with this, to be honest. It's a niche game in a niche genre, in a niche series which happens to have ahuge fanbase. It's destined to be frontloaded. An FPS is never frontloaded. CoD4 (I know not all FPS games sell like this, but for argument's sake) on PS3 sold 450k first week. Not a bad number, not very impressive. Pretty average.

It is now sitting at over 4 million sales LTD. It shows no signs of losing steam, even when a sequel has been released. It can easily do 10x its first week sales, but it's all proportional. The higher the first week, the lower the ratio of the first week to lifetime.

So, to restate what I said earlier,

First week: Halo Wars

First month: Halo Wars

First two months: Probably Halo Wars

Lifetime: Killzone 2.

There's a chance that I'm wrong, but there's a chance that you're wrong as well.

May I ask, what reasoning are you using to suppose Killzone 2 will have such tremendous legs?

It's a AAA (God, I hate that word) war FPS with tons of blood and enemies with orange eyes. People are saying it's an improved CoD4. It's not, but if that's what people think, it's what they think.

What reasoning are you using to suppose that it won't?

EDIT: Killzone 2 will not have CoD4 legs. Seriously. It will not sell ten times its first week sales. But it will beat the first week of CoD4.

I don't think this game will have legs beyond the next six months.

It'll only last till the next big shooter.  Multiplatform or otherwise.

 

We'll see when that happens, but I strongly doubt that. If CoD:WaW couldn't cut CoD4's legs, I doubt CoDMW2 will but KZ2's legs. The next major FPS the PS3 will have (that we know of now) is Resistance 3, and that's November 2010...

Something else will probably be announced before then, though.



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

TacoBoy49 on 13 February 2009

No, if killzone 2 doesn't outsell Halo Wars, killzone 2 can be considered a failure. Killzone 2 is one of the most hyped(4 years of it) and one of the most expensive fps games of the most popular genre on Hd consoles and Halo wars is the complete opposite of all that. Moderately budgeted, not very hyped, and expected to fail as its a very unpopular genre on consoles