Not unless you count expansions, and even then not within the scope of this year.

I'm taking that bet. You can choose my sig/avatar if you win. I get to name your next child if I win.

Hell no, they are much better. Are you seriously saying that one of the 1000th realistic FPS produced since Counter Strike is an incredible game? Your standard must be real low if that the case. I am sure that it do some small stuff better but in the end it's the exact same thing just with more polish.

What is the more incredible, a whole new idea(talking Brain Trainning here, the other is pretty much a Tamagotchi(sp?) on speed) or a game that been done a thousand time before?, Starcraft or one of it's clone?(let not kid ourself, while extremely well balanced pretty much everything else been done with more polish in other RTS), Civilization or it's copy set in space?

Pfff, and then gamer got the gut to say they want something new and innovative, yet they call the same old thing incredible, the fact is that all they want is the same thing again and again but in a new package while they attack anything that is actually new. What a fucking joke.

@ auxumblade, firstly 4 Prologue has no US data, and there had already been a GT that gen, which is why sales for that are so much lower

As for Forza, there were far more than 1m copies bundled, take a look at the sales history graph, and if it was bundled across a holiday season, that must have added about 2m sales at least

Call of Duty 4 is an incredible game, whether your pre-set bias would agree or not. So what if it's another realistic shooter? Should I claim that Counter-Strike isn't an incredible game because Doom came before it? Maybe Super Mario Galaxy isn't a great game because there were DOZENS of games before it in the series with many similarities. Not every game needs to innovate to be a great game, and not every game that innovates is immediately great. All 3 games are great (Nintendogs, Brain Training, and Call of Duty 4), and millions agree.

So you think that every game that does something new is somehow incredible? Katamari Damacy innovated quite a bit and did a lot of different things, but I don't think anyone is claiming it as one of the best games ever. Quality is subjective, sure, but let's not act like Brain Training is so innovative. Even a quick search would bring up Brain Games for the Atari 2600, Rayman Brain Games for the Playstation, or the bajillion rip-off school applications that were advertised endlessly in the 90s. Maybe not the same as Brain Training, or as polished, but let's not kid ourself.

And are gamers supposed to reject old formulas just because they want something new as well? I could list dozens of examples why that doesn't make any sense, but I'm sure you've already thought of them as well. And if you're going to go off on a completely unrelated rant, watch your mouth unless you want to get f***ing banned.

@Montana: My point was, that the quality of the games can't be judged by ones personal preferences. If we look at each games sales, we could say that the game doesn't need to be like Nintendogs or Brain Training to sell in big numbers. In reality, the two latest CoD games have done amazingly well.

@Munkeh: The reason why MKWii sells so good and the reason why it has Mario in it, is because it's supposed to be a bridge title for the new audience into the core games.
Think about MKWii as "Wii Motorsports" ("Wii" title, Wii Wheel playing a big part in the boxart, white background) as its idea. Only this time it has Mario in the title to get the people to play the core games, such as Super Mario Galaxy and Super Paper Mario. Another similar game could be Wario Land.
MKWii is easy to pick up and play, while it has a lot of depht, that keeps the experienced gamers interested in the game too.

Nintendo isn't interested in having a "Singstar and Buzz" audience, like Sony had on PS2, Nintendo wants to get them to play the core games as well (Sony didn't have bridge titles for them).

@RPG: If we think the numbers in question in this thread, a million or two is enough.

@Axumblade: All the people who potentially want GT5, doesn't yet have a PS3. Out of the people, i'm betting quite a few will consider 360 and Forza as a cheaper option.
GT5 wouldn't outsell MKWii 2009, even if it came out (early) 2009. Surely there isn't many games the size of sales as GT (last gen only GTA), but take a look how GTA4 is doing with more than double the installbase. GT5 could easilly reach 5-6M on PS3 first year, but MKWii could be expected to sell between 8 and 10 million this year. That is if the legs keep on going.

I think you're right and MK:Wii will outsell them all.

I'm going to have to agree with Montana (and the OP, but for the same reasoning as Montana, so I won't be writing what he wrote a second time).

Well, to an extent. I don't fully agree with the OP / most other people on a few things. 

I believe Mario Kart Wii will sell between 9 and 9.5 million in 2009.

On a single platform, the best non-Wii was GTA IV 360 with 6.7M.

I don't think any new single-plat in 09 has a shot of beating that, except for Wii Sports Resort. So I doubt any game at all (save for Wii Fit/Play/Sports/Resort) will beat 7M on a single platform. Well, maybe Pokemon Platinum.

Multiplat (Ps3/X360, no others).

Though one... CoD has the disadvantage of releasing late in the year (otherwise it would be very likely to make it).

No GTA to stop it...

I have to say no - nothing will beat it.

Overall (all consoles, multiplats).

Again, hard to tell really (well, the other one wasn't really...)

At first, I thought GT:WT had a shot, but seeing as the total sold less than MK last week, I doubt it (it's just 11 weeks, MK is 40).

Then there's WSR, it could really go either way, but it should stick to around 9M. Wii Fit should also stick in the 8-11M area (I have it a lot wider than MK, due to it being harder to predict), and a 11-12M for Wii Play.

So, if you count Wii Play, it wins. Otherwise, toss up between Fit, Kart and Resort.

I have one thing to say though, this isn't completely fair.

Most big games release in Oct/Nov. This make them have a 66/33 split in sales (Ps3/X360) between the 2 years. MK gets for the whole year, and gets 100% of it in that year.

If you do fiscal year, I wouldn't be surprised if a few games beat it (well, CoD 6 should at least) - and that would be a much more fair comparison.

Doing "sales for the Jan-Dec year" gives a flawed picture, as Q4 releases have a major disadvantage.

Few games release in Jan/Feb/March, so that would be more fair.

So, I have a shock to present!

I take your bet.

But, I change the rules a bit.

The combined sales of an X360/Ps3 game will be bigger than the sales for Mario Kart Wii, for the 12 months ending April 1st 2010.

Conditions:

If I win, you have to give 2 weeks of sig-control to Noname2200, Khuutra or Makingmusic (I just picked 3, you can choose between them. Chances are 1 could be gone in 15 months too).

If you win, a 3rd party gets sig control for 2 weeks over my sig. I will have to approve of who the 3rd party is (I mean, I wouldn't want Makingmusic, Khuutra or Noname2200 controlling my sig!)

Oyvoyvoyv, are you sure you want to give someone that opportunity? What games look like they can sell more than ten million in the next fiscal year? All I can think of is Call of Duty.

@Axumblade: A lot of the audience of GT, is in a group that doesn't care that much about games. They just want to play driving games. Of course, a lot of people do wait for the game to come out, but the price of PS3 is the problem. 149-199 PS3 with GT5 bundle would change the whole thing. Oh, and a number of the audience has jumped to Wii too.
Most people aren't going to jump to Forza just because they want a driving game and can't afford PS3, but some people do.