So far the attach rate is about 33% only 8 months after the release of the game. If my prediction came true, the attach rate would be about 40%. Fairly high, but you have to remember that Wii Fit and Wii Play both have higher attach rates, with Wii Play's attach rate being about 44%. It's not an incredibly good game, but neither were Nintendogs or Brain Training. I could be overestimating the game's sales and underestimating the Wii's sales, but I still see Mario Kart selling more than Call of Duty.

well i just chose mk wii because it would look sweet for a game released in the spring of 08 to outsell these 09 games. that justs sounds like a huge achievement to me.

The thing about the wii is that nintendo's games have no competition, MKwii could sell to 1 of 2 new wii purchasers.

What other game competes with mkwii?

On the contrary, lets take the ps3 for example: Sony's new game Killzone 2 is set to be the new fps for ps3's fps fans. However, people buying a ps3 after nov 2009 would very likely get cod6 instead because of the general idea that newer = better.

MKwii benefits from lacking competition whatsoever and it's not the only one. Just a few of ninty's titles make up about 50% of the wii' software sales. I'm not saying this is a good or bad thing, it's just the thing. (I'm guessing that someone would reply to my post saying that it's because the 3rd party's wii track record sucks)

Remember OP said for a single console, multi-plats will have sales divided so they are pretty much out of the equation. That means a big exclusive and only GT5 comes to mind, Halo: ODST releases too late in the year and Halo is not as big as GT (I think so dont kill me if I am wrong.)

GT games have legs so with that said if through some miracle GT5 releases by March then it could do it. Then again 10 months for GT5, I would it would get 5 million sales max so even that game would be very unlikely.

I dunno, if GT5 cannot do it I seriously doubt any other 360 or PS3 game will do it.

@Axumblade: I doubt GT5 would outsell MKWiis 2009, basically PS3 is lacking the installbase and a lot of GT fans have turned to 360 and Forza. Then PS3 also has other driving games to compete.

@Montana: The games you mentioned are actually really good. It's only your personal preferences talking.

Well I don't think the Mario name hurts! It just seems to be a game that every single person who buys a Wii will buy, though maybe with the "hardcore" games like MadWorld etc. might dilute the audience somewhat.

However, while with nearly every console, the average attach ratio of a game will go down through the gen as the install base expands, I don't think that will happen with the Wii, as the "casual" userbase that they seem to be targetting is huge, and they are not really going to have to expand to other demographics in a way that the PS2 had to with game like Buzz and Singstar not appealing to the same people as the majority of the games on the system

Personal preference, yes. I thought Nintendogs and Brain Training were great but not incredible games. Munkeh was asking if the game was really "THAT GOOD," and I was explaining that you don't need a game on the level of Call of Duty 4 to sell incredibly well. That is unless you believe that Nintendogs and Brain Training are as good as Call of Duty 4.

GT is still big, I would say easily the biggest franchise on HD consoles (besides COD >_>). Doubt Forza has taken huge numbers from GT, I got Forza 2 with my 360 as a bundle as well so.....

Anyone who takes this bet is taking a losing bet. Nearly as bad as the one in my sig.

No single non-Nintendo-published game is going to outsell Mario Kart Wii during 2009.

The Sims 3 will outsell it ;)