You're correct it wont do anywhere near what this guy is stating BUT I think you're also wron on doubling the 360 numbers as LTD just because the PS2 draws that comparison.

The PS2 reached its peak in 2002 .... its (3rd) year on the market, the 360 is entering its 5th (so to speak) and this year it has to be said its looking more likely the 360 will top this years sales over last years. ...

From 2009 to 2010, you expect the 360 to sell 30 million (despite listing the difference at 20 million, check your math). The 360 selling 20 million in one year is a stretch. The Wii managed to sell about 25 million this year, and that's the freakin' Wii! The 360 will never sell anywhere close to what the Wii sells.

Not going to happen.

Hmmm the 360 has it's own Crazzyman and the wii has JohnLucas the tri-force is complete...Ontopic an easy no will do...

Unlikely. Very unlikely.

I'd say that 65-80m is the current 'range' for it if it can keep it's momentum up. The first 2 quarters of 09 will rip up 08....But the question is if it can keep pace with the feverish pace that Q4 2008 set for the 360 (in relation to any other quarter the 360 has had).

That said, I do think the 360 is going to have better 'legs' than the PS2 did last generation (in relation to what WiiStation360 is saying) due to the fact that the PS2 started out hot, and stayed hot throughout...Whereas the 360 has (actually) built up momentum.

I doubt it, how much lower than $200 can it go? Not very is the answer. I think 2008 was the peak year for sales, 2009 will be great, and downhill from there.

To summarize, the prediction is either 360 will sell 90 mil units or MS will sell 30 mil of 360 in 2010 after selling 20 mil units in 2009.

sorry... I don't see either happening. The good thing is one of us will be proved wrong at the end of this year instead of 2014.

FYI, here's the Playstation 1 (using the hardware shipment chart)...Numbers are from April to March of the given years:

94/95 - 830,000 (0.83m LTD)
95/96 - 3,430,000 (4.26m LTD)
96/97 - 9,240,000 (13.50m LTD)
97/98 - 19,320,000 (32.82m LTD)
98/99 - 21,600,000 (54.42m LTD)
99/00 - 18,500,000 (72.92m LTD)
00/01 - 9,310,000 (82.23m LTD)
01/02 - 7,400,000 (89.63m LTD)
02/03 - 6,780,000 (96.41m LTD)

As you can see, the Playstation 1's best year wasn't it's '3rd year', but it's 4th full year, and 5th Christmas. So it's entirely feasible that, if a console catches on later in it's lifespan, that it can do well and have great legs.

I am NOT advocating the 360 will beat 100m LTD (I think that's a cruel joke) but that it can shake off what most assume will be a lower year, and only increase it's current LTD install base by 50% from it's current LTD number.

Expanded analysis:

09 should be the 360s peak year. (up 20% or so over this year)

After the new MS console comes out ( i would guess in 2011), 360 sales will quickly drop off.

It will not have legs like the PS2 because of its hardcore user base. 360 owners will quickly jump to the next MS system to get the latest Halo, Gears or CoD games. The majority of the people buying PS2s in 07/08 were not hardcore gamers.

2005 1,179,441
2006 6,762,957
2007 7,929,882
2008 11,341,607

2009 14,000,000 (peak)
2010 13,000,000
2011 8,000,000 (New 360 in 2011)
2012 4,000,000
2013 2,000,000

Total 68-69M

I disagree with you because the most popular 360 model is still the Pro model and that retails for $300. So I think the 360 has room to grow from a sales stand point, well at least in North America. I won't pretend know how to predict Japanese and Euro sales of the console. I didn't expect the 360 to sales to increase the way that the did in either market.

ROFLOL...I'm as big a 360 fanboy as I thought one could get, but 100 million sold is not in the cards, imho, not even close. I'd say 50-60 mil is more likely, which would be great, especially if they make it completely backward comp. with the next console.