Now that is a bit extreme on the other side, don't you think?  I mean it is already more than halfway to 52 million...

We are just kidding with you man… well I was. Will it help if I say sorry? You have a cute dog by the way :)

@roma

aww...thanks for being nice :)

This is based on two factors:

1. Stiffer competiton from Sony this year.

2. MS will release their next console early.

Take a look at your prediction. You're saying that the xbox 360 will apparently sell close to as much as the PS2 did in it's best year, for two years in a row. And then it will quickly die off. That IS kinda ridiculous, and not really how I would imagine things turning out. And a 70% increase year over year this year? After the amazing increase this year?

Also, consoles usually peak in their second or third year, with NES as the only big exception (that I know of). You're saying that the 360 will peak in between it's 4th and 5th year. It's just not plausible (even though it is possible). There's also the population issue, which means that the Xbox will soon run out of people to sell to, just as the Wii will never reach 200 million because of the same issue. And the Wii IS constantly selling twice as much as the xbox, so if the xbox reaches 100  million, the wii will reach 200.

I see the xbox ending up around 50-70 million, and the PS3 in the same range. But since it's too early to tell, I'm  not making predictions beyond this year.

The earliest the new console will be out is 2012... Microsoft ususally releases big announcements at E3 for games coming this year, rather than a year or more in advance like Sony.  Sony isn't likely to drop their console price in 2009 or not until LATE 2009 according to all the President of SCEE's remarks.  Software will not be enough if their price stays the same.

Who says MS will discontinue the 360 when the next console is released?  Even if it sees decreasing yearly sales from here on out it will easily reach 52 million before it is finall pulled from construction.

2009 - 8m = 35m
2010 - 7m = 42m
2011 - 6m = 48m
2012 - 4m = 52m

I highly doubt they will sell anywhere near as low as 8 million for 2009.  They may not see decreasing sales until 2010 or 2011.  This generation of consoles seems to break past "trends" quite a bit, so we'll see.

Well, the only achievment left for you is to be called a Wii fanboy.

Let me know when that happens.

Theres optimistic then there is this. LOL

2009 - 13 / 40 - Strongest year the 360 will get, at a mass market price all year
2010 - 11 / 51 - should see not that small of a drop, maybe the slim will arrive?
2011 - 10 / 61 - continuing the decline.
2012 - 8 / 69 - Nextbox released.
2013 - 5 / 74 - sales rapidly decline.
2014 - 2 / 76 - discontinued mid 2014

Thats my take on things ... not that farfetched I hope ...

Interesting numbers.  The 360 sold less than half the PS2 in the same time frame.  (27M vs 61M in 3.5 years)

I cannot see how the 360 will suddenly sell more than the PS2 did in its next 5 years.   A more likely scenarios is for the next 5 years to equal the current sales of the 360, just like the PS2 did.  So that puts it at about 55M lifetime.