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Forums - Sales Discussion - What Will Be The Biggest Selling Game of 2009?

ganondorf7799 on 03 January 2009

1.) WiiSports Resorts
2.) A Wii game
3.) A Wii game
4.) A Wii game
5.) A Wii game
6.) A 360 game
7.) A PS3 game
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.
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neotea on 03 January 2009

ZELDA WII (BELIEVE)



I TAKE NO SIDES

frankie_baby on 03 January 2009
neotea said:
ZELDA WII (BELIEVE)

 

 



hunter_alien on 03 January 2009

DQ9 has a fair chance to sell IMO 6 million copies... so it has a fairly good chance to be in the top 3 ;)



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Zlejedi on 03 January 2009

Starcraft 2 remember every Korean needs at least one copy and there will be some meaningless few more milions in US and Europe too :D



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Oyvoyvoyv on 03 January 2009
Khuutra said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Khuutra said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Wii Sports Resort (although a lot of this depends on the release dates)

Call of Duty 6

Guitar Hero 5

Halo: ODST

Gran Turismo 5

A lot of factors are involved, and a lot of release dates are unknown. I'm going to guess Call of Duty 6 (yes, I called it that) but I have no way of knowing.

I'll go a less popular route.

Wii Fit or Mario Kart Wii will be the best-selling game of this year.

Damn! I was thinking about those two, but they slipped off my mind when I was thinking of Gran Turismo 5. Okay then, it will be Wii Play.

 

Fine then. I'll bet you that Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii outsell Wii Play for the year of 2009.

Okay, just one non-quote related thing.

I made this topic less than a week ago! But it got zero replies :(. Well, it was "Will Wii Fit/MKWii be the best selling game in 2009? but that's pretty much the same. There's some conspiracy against me, I can feel it.

 

Quote related/On topic

 

Firstly, returning titles.

 

1. Wii Fit = 11-12M

Wii Fit is likely to see at least 200K/week. That is for the first 43 weeks (up untill start of November). 8-9M sales for this period seems likely. Then ~ 3M (this year will be 4-4.5M) for the holidays.

 

 

2. Mario Kart Wii = ~ 10M

Mario Kart Wii. Won't do as good during the non-holiday days, but should still manage a 125-175K weekly. That's 6-7M before the holidays start. It is likely to see a larger drop-off than Wii Fit (compared to last year), and should sell a 3-3.5M as well.

 

 2. Wii Play = ~ 10M

Wii Play. Depends heavily on the Wii's sales, and that's the reason for the major increase in 08 (vs 07). Wii won't sell a lot more next year  (+ 10-20% max). Wii Play sold ~ 10M this year. If you look at the quarterly sales (below) you can see that it is selling very steadily. 10M might be a tad conservative.

Q1 = 1946K

Q2 =  2262K (high due to 20% higher Wii sales than Q1 and Q3)

Q3 = 1856K

 

 And then there's very little in the 5-10M region...

Those are the only 3 real contestants.

 

Okay, so - first question.

Do we count multiplats?

Well, I'll assume we do.

Guitar Heroes won't make it. They'll either be released to late (Q2 or later), or they were already released in 08 (which means they have "used up" most of their sales).

Halo won't make it. It would have to do a fair amount better than Halo 3 to make the top 3.

Gran Turismo 5 has no chance whatsoever. Will probably be released in Q3 or Q4, and as GT is a relatively casual (long legged) franchise, it is doubtful it will make more than 5-6M (this year, total is more ala 7-9M).

Nothing on DS has a chance (duh! 10M in one year? Only twice has a DS game beaten 5M (I think))

Nothing on PsP

Call of Duty won't make it, as it will be released in Q3/Q4, and it will sell ~ 10-12M LT, and some of that won't be in 09...

Wii Sports Resort - might make it. Depends on the release date... Personally, I doubt it will sell more than 10M first year.

 

So I see the top being

1. Wii Fit

2. Mario Kart Wii & Wii Play

4. Wii Sports Resort

5. Call of Duty 6

 

 

 

 



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amp316 on 03 January 2009

How about we don't ignore games with Wii in the title since those will be the best selling games? You could start another thread for that. The question was what will be the biggest selling game of 2009. The answer I believe will be Wii Sports Resort.

Funny how a lot of the sales discussion threads turn into something about "What if the Wii didn't exist?" It does exist. Sorry. It also happens to lead in sales.



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nintendo_fanboy on 03 January 2009

While I do believe that it will see massive sales again next year, I think a lot of you are expecting a little too much from Mario Kart Wii. Ovyetc. is putting it in the 125k - 175k range weekly, but that it where it was during last year, and although its legs are incredible, I don't see it selling exactly the same weekly numbers as last year.

This is why I expect it more in the range between 100k - 150k for the first quarter and ending up around 70k weekly in summer, which is still huge, but will put it more in the range of 5 to 7 million this year instead of another 10 millions.

I'm not sure about Wii Fit, maybe it's the same with that game, but maybe this one is able to pull the same numbers for ages.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 03 January 2009
Kantor said:
Why don't we ignore anything with "Wii" in the name, and make things more interesting?

Total:
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

Individual Platform:
Gran Turismo 5 (PS3)
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (X360)

Best selling (Non-Wii Sports) Wii games:
1) Wii Sports Resort
2) Wii Fit
3) Mario Kart Wii

Best selling PS3 games:
1) Gran Turismo 5
2) God of War III
3) Killzone 2
4) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2

Best Selling 360 games:
1) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (that's right, I didn't say Halo 3 ODST)
2) Halo 3: ODST
3) Halo Wars

 

 Call of Duty will not outsell Halo 3: ODST. Plain and simple Halo 3 will be cheaper, so there is a larger incentive to get the game.



Munkeh111 on 03 January 2009

We can't include PC because they are not tracked here, even if there will be some shipment info avaliable

I have a strong feeling that Nintendo will package Resort with a Wii and Motion +, so that is discounted for me. GT 5 is unlikely to make it before November or December, so that wont be enough to compete with the only possible winner in my mind:

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2!

I know I discounted GT 5 because it would be coming out too late, but MW 2 is coming out on PS360 obviously, and WaW managed 2m first day, and I expect closer to 2.5m first week for MW 2, and WaW has now sold 7m, and will likely to be closer to 8m by the end of the year. There is no way GT 5 can keep up with that