What Will Be The Biggest Selling Game of 2009?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Khuutra said:

MontanaHatchet said:

Khuutra said:

MontanaHatchet said:
Wii Sports Resort (although a lot of this depends on the release dates)

Call of Duty 6

Guitar Hero 5

Halo: ODST

Gran Turismo 5

A lot of factors are involved, and a lot of release dates are unknown. I'm going to guess Call of Duty 6 (yes, I called it that) but I have no way of knowing.

I'll go a less popular route.

Wii Fit or Mario Kart Wii will be the best-selling game of this year.

Damn! I was thinking about those two, but they slipped off my mind when I was thinking of Gran Turismo 5. Okay then, it will be Wii Play.

 

Fine then. I'll bet you that Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii outsell Wii Play for the year of 2009.

Okay, just one non-quote related thing.

I made this topic less than a week ago! But it got zero replies :(. Well, it was "Will Wii Fit/MKWii be the best selling game in 2009? but that's pretty much the same. There's some conspiracy against me, I can feel it.

 

Quote related/On topic

 

Firstly, returning titles.

 

1. Wii Fit = 11-12M

Wii Fit is likely to see at least 200K/week. That is for the first 43 weeks (up untill start of November). 8-9M sales for this period seems likely. Then ~ 3M (this year will be 4-4.5M) for the holidays.

 

 

2. Mario Kart Wii = ~ 10M

Mario Kart Wii. Won't do as good during the non-holiday days, but should still manage a 125-175K weekly. That's 6-7M before the holidays start. It is likely to see a larger drop-off than Wii Fit (compared to last year), and should sell a 3-3.5M as well.

 

 2. Wii Play = ~ 10M

Wii Play. Depends heavily on the Wii's sales, and that's the reason for the major increase in 08 (vs 07). Wii won't sell a lot more next year  (+ 10-20% max). Wii Play sold ~ 10M this year. If you look at the quarterly sales (below) you can see that it is selling very steadily. 10M might be a tad conservative.

Q1 = 1946K

Q2 =  2262K (high due to 20% higher Wii sales than Q1 and Q3)

Q3 = 1856K

 

 And then there's very little in the 5-10M region...

Those are the only 3 real contestants.

 

Okay, so - first question.

Do we count multiplats?

Well, I'll assume we do.

Guitar Heroes won't make it. They'll either be released to late (Q2 or later), or they were already released in 08 (which means they have "used up" most of their sales).

Halo won't make it. It would have to do a fair amount better than Halo 3 to make the top 3.

Gran Turismo 5 has no chance whatsoever. Will probably be released in Q3 or Q4, and as GT is a relatively casual (long legged) franchise, it is doubtful it will make more than 5-6M (this year, total is more ala 7-9M).

Nothing on DS has a chance (duh! 10M in one year? Only twice has a DS game beaten 5M (I think))

Nothing on PsP

Call of Duty won't make it, as it will be released in Q3/Q4, and it will sell ~ 10-12M LT, and some of that won't be in 09...

Wii Sports Resort - might make it. Depends on the release date... Personally, I doubt it will sell more than 10M first year.

 

So I see the top being

1. Wii Fit

2. Mario Kart Wii & Wii Play

4. Wii Sports Resort

5. Call of Duty 6