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Forums - Sales Discussion - BruceOnGames:"The Wii bubble could very well burst" (in the recession)+more

This guy makes any fanboy on this site look like an amateur.



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NJ5 said:

Oh, he also has a whole article from December 15th about why the Wii bubble could well burst (apparently this is the last big Christmas for the Wii... I wonder what a non-big Christmas looks like?):

http://www.bruceongames.com/2008/12/15/will-the-wii-bubble-now-finally-burst/

For two years now analysts have been predicting the imminent demise of the Wii. They have become a bit quiet recently as it chalks up ever more amazing sales success. Yet there are a few reasons why what we are seeing now is the end of the boom.

* Any bubble bursts just as it reaches its biggest size. And the Wii is now selling in massively unsustainable numbers. It just cannot go on. LOL WUT?
* The penetration of HDTVs has increased massively over the last two years. Thus cruelly exposing the Wii’s last generation graphics to far more people. Also 360 and PS3 games have had commercials and ads showing HD graphics for longer than the Wii's existence and have yet to fully penetrate the Wii's Market.
* The Xbox 360 is cheaper.  Yes, the Arcade SKU is cheaper, but when long term expenses for the 360 outweight those for the Wii such as power comsumption and the cost of games.(5 $60 games vs. 5 $ 50 games) Also price has shown to be rather secondary as Wii's have sold for around $400 on Ebay and other sites.
* The Xbox 360 is a huge amount better than the Wii. It has far more games and vastly more good games. And it has Live, by far the best online gaming portal. Gradually the public will come round to understanding these realities.  Yes the 360 has more games but one of strongest arguments against the Wii is that it's selling to non-gamers.  If these non-gamers never intended to buy the 360, why would they buy one now?  Remember, these non-gamers largely don't pay attention to reviews.
* The Wii has a very weak game library. The first party games, a few good third party games. Then lots of dross shovelware. And game consoles are for playing games.  True, consoles are for playing games but the strength of a console's library is subjective. Also if the Wii is selling strongly to  casual gamers, why would they suddenly buy consoles that are saturated with FPS's, TPS's, WRPG's, etc.
* Nintendo have now rolled out all their great and famous properties on the Wii. So they have very few places left to go for the stream of AAA titles needed to sustain a platform.  Most, not all of the their great and famous properties, have been releasedd.  Also if software sales are to note on, the top 3 selling games on the platform are new IP's. (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit)
* The Wii is not making much money for many publishers so they are voting with their feet and allocating their resources to platforms that will make them money.  But these "many publishers" largely ignore the Wii as a viable platform for their software. 
* Most of the Wii customer base is the very casual “toy” market. They will be very fickle as they move onto the next “must have” trend. The Wii will become tired.  One, all consoles are toys.  They're just glorified by mature content and multimedia capabilities.  Two, unless some new "toy" like platform comes out, I doubt this customer base will move on.
* Money is getting a lot tighter as the world tips into recession. Casual frippery, like most Wii purchases, will be an early casualty.  If anything the recession is helping the Wii as $400 is hardly acceptable for most new consumers.  Also, recession hardly alienates, hardcore gamers will likely to cut back as well so I'm going to assume that the fall of casual consumers buying won't be good for the industry as a whole.
* Most people likely to buy a Wii already have. In terms of market penetration Nintendo are now going to suffer from the law of diminishing returns. Yea.. that's why it's selling millions for the past few weeks.


So there we have it. Plenty of reasons why the Wii must eventually face the inevitable. And because the boom has been so massive the collapse of sales will be equally dramatic. And when will this be? Let’s put it this way, we are experiencing the last big Christmas for the Wii.

 

 

The fanboyism.. it's constricting.



Pixel Art can be fun.

I am sure in 2011, when Wii sales start to drop, Bruce will have an article saying that he was right all along. (Never mind that it is over 120M sold by then)



Fourthly, there will be a different profile as to what sells well. Hyped up hits, often with licensed IP will not do so well. People will be more discerning with their spend, buying solid, quality titles with many hours worth of play. We are already seeing this effect and the game sales charts are looking a lot different to what people were expecting.

This makes no sense?  So he is saying people will be more careful and only choose quality titles with lots of hours gameplay.  NOT the hyped up highly advertised games?  How will people KNOW they are high quality with long gameplay if the game isn't marketed and hyped?  And since when are crappy titles hyped more than good titles?  It seems to me that most of the licensed IP that is a hyped up hit, are the more quality titles that have larger budgets and more development time.  Thats why you don't see commercials on TV for Destroy All Humans or Legendary, and you DO see commercials for Gears of War 2, Resistance, LBP, etc.



what is sad is since he hasnt changed his tune he will eventually be right and we cant take that fact away from him


b/c any sane person can agree eventually th ewii sales will slow down as it hits mass market saturation

but what he will gloss over at that point is the fact its pushing 110+mill and has gotten to that point faster then any machine in history of teh market

sad but he will be right



 

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So, Bruce thinks that the cheaper, more popular console is going to be hurt by the recession, and the more expensive, less popular consoles are going to do fine?

Huh?



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Oh Bruce.

Bruce, Bruce, Bruce.

He's like the anit-Malstrom.

I'd love to see them in a conversation.



I think I can summarize pretty much everything he said, actually. "I want things to happen this way so they will! As long as you ignore all the facts and just focus on my interpretation of reality based on what I want, you'll see that I'm totally right!"

...Yeah, I really do hope this guy is posting these articles as a joke. Or at least that nobody is actually paying him to write them, because they fail pretty badly even as satire.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.

Sky Render said:
I certainly hope that was a joke article. If not, then this poor fellow is the very embodiment of the sort of "hardcore gamer" stereotype that is so delightful to mock.

 

Actually he's an old guy who, as far as I know, doesn't even play games. I can understand people who've put lots of money in an underperforming console being aggressive in defending their choice, but this guy is truly something else.

Remember when someone had posted stupid comments in his blog, and he made a really angry thread about it? I think his argument went something like "The only other sites I mention my blog on are filled with intelligent professional. This is the only one with idiots, so the guy must be from here!"

(ok, so it turned out that it was someone from this site, but he still had it coming ^^)



RolStoppable said:
Sky Render said:
I certainly hope that was a joke article. If not, then this poor fellow is the very embodiment of the sort of "hardcore gamer" stereotype that is so delightful to mock.

We had some great times when he posted here on VGC.

That bubble burst rather quickly didn't it? How long was he here for......like a month? He kept saying the same things over and over again.......after a bit I just glazed over his posts.