1 to 2 million sales of that game - who knows?
mibuokami said:
I think you're undershooting its Japan first week and LTD sale, considering there is more than twice the install base as the 360, I'd say 200-250k first week would be achievable with 500k LTD. Oddly, I agree with you on the WW LTD, I think this game will underperformin in the west. Also we are forgetting the biggest wildcard WKC has, which is that online aspect of the game. If this catch on in Japan the way Monster Hunter did, I would expect its sale to reach massive proportion. |
Yeah, with that Japan number, it's probably too much WW. I'd adjust it to 750-800k. It's really hard to say, depends on the marketing by Sony, but I expect it to be somewhere between Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon (optimistically).
My Japan numbers are low because I don't think there's enough interest in the genre, so the difference in install base won't matter as much. Level 5's top RPG in Japan is Rogue Galaxy on the PS2, which did 227k first week, .36m lifetime. A more recent game of theirs on the PSP, Jeanne d'Arc, sold much less. I suppose it being the first PS3 RPG from a good dev could boost it more, but I'd still cap it on 200k first week / 300k lifetime.
As for the online, I realized, but not much can be said about it. It's an unknown variable really... I'll assume it means little, if it turns out to be important (and pushes sales), all the better.
Just like Dissidia, this game is being sold at convenience stores in Japan. That suggests there is some demand for the game. It wasn't advertised at my local Seven Eleven in my countryside town until last week. I'm assuming it will get at least 200k first week.
"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY." --Hermann Goering, leading Nazi party member, at the Nuremberg War Crime Trials
Conservatives: Pushing for a small enough government to be a guest in your living room, or even better - your uterus.
Khuutra - Hell, I'll predict 250k worldwide
Damstr8 - 80k - firstday 145k - first week
Aiemond - I'm gonna say 150k first week Japan
Phoenix_Wiight - i think if we're lucky itll do 300k first week, really lucky that is.
Sephiroth357 - 89k
Rei - 1st week - 150k in Japan
Gabriel84 - Around 120 k first week, don't think it will do too well, very old fashioned game.
Cactus - i'll be conservative and guess 130k first week.
BengaBenga - Japan 200k LTD
Don't mind me... just getting ready.
I'd say 200k first week in japan, 400k worldwide first week and 1 milion ww first year.
PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB
c0rd said:
Yeah, with that Japan number, it's probably too much WW. I'd adjust it to 750-800k. It's really hard to say, depends on the marketing by Sony, but I expect it to be somewhere between Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon (optimistically). My Japan numbers are low because I don't think there's enough interest in the genre, so the difference in install base won't matter as much. Level 5's top RPG in Japan is Rogue Galaxy on the PS2, which did 227k first week, .36m lifetime. A more recent game of theirs on the PSP, Jeanne d'Arc, sold much less. I suppose it being the first PS3 RPG from a good dev could boost it more, but I'd still cap it on 200k first week / 300k lifetime. As for the online, I realized, but not much can be said about it. It's an unknown variable really... I'll assume it means little, if it turns out to be important (and pushes sales), all the better. |
Neither Rogue Galaxy or Dark Cloud (1-2) had as much buzz as WKC or as much marketing push. Jeanne d'Arc is once again a SRPG. While I can see where you're coming from, but I am being fairly optimistic about the JRPG starved PS3 audience, not to mention a possible hardware boost (5k-10k?)
This is basically Level-5's magnum opus, and has been in development for years as it was originally meant to be a launch title.
I am of the belief that online features will not effect initial sale, but rather will effect the longetivity (legs) of the game IF it catches on
im going for 227089 first week. i reckon it will probably outsell fragile
nintendo fanboy, but the good kind
proud soldier of nintopia
Japan: 200k LTD
US: 250k LTD
Europe: 200k LTD
=650k LTD
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