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c0rd on 14 December 2008
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mibuokami said:
c0rd said:

2D Mario > DQ >>>> 3D Mario.

OT: I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Some people are posting huge numbers, when was the last time a new JRPG got that big? I'm skeptical of it. Here are my guesses, and I think they're on the high side:

Japan: 170k first week, 270k lifetime.

WW: 850k lifetime.

My worldwide number may seem low, but I think the problem is the JRPG audience is split across all three consoles this gen. We'll see if my theory is correct, soon enough.

I have a feeling people are putting too much hope into this (for the PS3)... don't be surprised when the game doesn't make much of an impact in Japan. Just be patient and wait for Yakuza 3.

I think you're undershooting its Japan first week and LTD sale, considering there is more than twice the install base as the 360, I'd say 200-250k first week would be achievable with 500k LTD.

Oddly, I agree with you on the WW LTD, I think this game will underperformin in the west.

Also we are forgetting the biggest wildcard WKC has, which is that online aspect of the game. If this catch on in Japan the way Monster Hunter did, I would expect its sale to reach massive proportion.

Yeah, with that Japan number, it's probably too much WW. I'd adjust it to 750-800k. It's really hard to say, depends on the marketing by Sony, but I expect it to be somewhere between Lost Odyssey and Blue Dragon (optimistically).

My Japan numbers are low because I don't think there's enough interest in the genre, so the difference in install base won't matter as much. Level 5's top RPG in Japan is Rogue Galaxy on the PS2, which did 227k first week, .36m lifetime. A more recent game of theirs on the PSP, Jeanne d'Arc, sold much less. I suppose it being the first PS3 RPG from a good dev could boost it more, but I'd still cap it on 200k first week / 300k lifetime.

As for the online, I realized, but not much can be said about it. It's an unknown variable really... I'll assume it means little, if it turns out to be important (and pushes sales), all the better.