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Forums - Sales - White Knight Chronicles sales predictions?

The Anarchyz on 12 December 2008
dolemit3 said:
RPG said:
TLR did 105k first week in Japan on the 360, WKC should double that with minimal effort.

That's not necessarily true. Valkyria Chronicles sold 78 k first week which is about the same as a typical jrpg on the 360.

 

 

Again, Valkyria Chronicles is a SRPG, with a niche-market, look up SRPGs sales numbers even on the PS2 and you'll not see much difference... Nippon Ichi and Sega knew that from the beginning...


White Knight Chronicles is a traditional JRPG with additional features, not only that, this one is actually being advertised...



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RPG on 12 December 2008
dolemit3 said:
RPG said:
TLR did 105k first week in Japan on the 360, WKC should double that with minimal effort.

That's not necessarily true. Valkyria Chronicles sold 78 k first week which is about the same as a typical jrpg on the 360.

 

 

Dont compare a SRPG to a JRPG, just dont do it.



 

Riachu on 12 December 2008

WKC will reach 125K in first day sales, 200K first week sales, and anywhere between 300K-500K lifetime. That's just Japanese sales numbers though. In the West, WKC sales will depend on if the game is marketed like crazy or not. In the US, the game will sell 250K without marketing, up to 500K with moderate marketing, and 500K-1 million with Square-Enix level marketing.



 

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Aiemond on 12 December 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
500k lifetime is most likely. What's gonna push this game? TWEWY was on a system with a large rpg fanbase, had very good reviews and gameplay, and was a SE game. It did not do 500k first week by any means. There is no real reason this will either.

That's one example, and there's no real reason it will or won't sell well. That's like saying the sales of one platformer will determine the sales of another. GRID didn't sell well on the PS3, so neither will Gran Turismo.

 

 

The problem with this analogy is that Gran Turismo is a very very big and thus your whole analogy fails. Niether TWEWY or WKC is an established IP. So, the comparison I made is valid. The DS right now is the medium of choice for many rpg fans. TWEWY is a very good game, that reviewed well. It is made by a popular company, Square. It is a new IP. It may be on a different platform than WKC, but it is one that has pushed far more software than the PS3 in japan on a title by title basis.

Now for WKC. It looks good. I don't know what the reviews will say, but I am going to assume they are good. it is made by a good developer, level 5, but it is not quite as big as SE. The platform it sells on has a very much smaller userbase, and alot fewer RPGs on it. So, to expect it to sell as big as TWEWY would be a very big achievement, one I am going to say it makes. This would be a success for a ps3 rpg imo.

So, a similar type of game, both with high quality and a similar name recognition can be compared, even on different platforms. It would be like comparing two new shooters sales wise.



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Tremble on 12 December 2008

PS3 owners are hungry for a jrpg so I'd say around 500k for its first week WW. It will definitly sell a million, maybe 2M!



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MontanaHatchet on 12 December 2008
Aiemond said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
500k lifetime is most likely. What's gonna push this game? TWEWY was on a system with a large rpg fanbase, had very good reviews and gameplay, and was a SE game. It did not do 500k first week by any means. There is no real reason this will either.

That's one example, and there's no real reason it will or won't sell well. That's like saying the sales of one platformer will determine the sales of another. GRID didn't sell well on the PS3, so neither will Gran Turismo.

 

 

The problem with this analogy is that Gran Turismo is a very very big and thus your whole analogy fails. Niether TWEWY or WKC is an established IP. So, the comparison I made is valid. The DS right now is the medium of choice for many rpg fans. TWEWY is a very good game, that reviewed well. It is made by a popular company, Square. It is a new IP. It may be on a different platform than WKC, but it is one that has pushed far more software than the PS3 in japan on a title by title basis.

Now for WKC. It looks good. I don't know what the reviews will say, but I am going to assume they are good. it is made by a good developer, level 5, but it is not quite as big as SE. The platform it sells on has a very much smaller userbase, and alot fewer RPGs on it. So, to expect it to sell as big as TWEWY would be a very big achievement, one I am going to say it makes. This would be a success for a ps3 rpg imo.

So, a similar type of game, both with high quality and a similar name recognition can be compared, even on different platforms. It would be like comparing two new shooters sales wise.

It was a very quick analogy, and there are DOZENS of possible examples. You could think of hundreds of games from each genre on each console that could be compared to each other sales wise, but didn't exactly end up the same way. Touchmaster launched to sales of 14k worldwide, and so did Touch the Dead. On one end, Touchmaster reached 1.2 million and climbing. Touch the Dead is still at 150k. Established IPs are important in Japan, but plenty of games have managed to find success without relying on brand name. I'm not saying that White Knight will as well, but let's not count it out just yet. The World Ends With You is a very strange game sales wise, and I have no idea why it sold so poorly in Japan. Perhaps a lack of advertising? While the DS is the console of choice for RPG owners, the home consoles definitely have their share as well. The 360 has seen a consistent number of RPGs released, the Wii has the highest selling of the generation on a home console, and the PS3 has Final Fantasy 13 and Versus 13 (easily the two most hyped games on the platform, with FF13 being exclusive to the PS3 in Japan). Even if it only had half the attach rate of some of the 360's big RPGs, it could push 300k or more easily.

 

 



 

 

Sh1nn on 12 December 2008

190k first day, 270k first week..



Dgc1808 on 12 December 2008
Tbone said:
Above 300k under 500k, where Japan will be highest.

 

 



4 ≈ One

Gabriel84 on 12 December 2008

Around 120 k first week, don't think it will do too well, very old fashioned game.



Aiemond on 12 December 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
500k lifetime is most likely. What's gonna push this game? TWEWY was on a system with a large rpg fanbase, had very good reviews and gameplay, and was a SE game. It did not do 500k first week by any means. There is no real reason this will either.

That's one example, and there's no real reason it will or won't sell well. That's like saying the sales of one platformer will determine the sales of another. GRID didn't sell well on the PS3, so neither will Gran Turismo.

 

 

The problem with this analogy is that Gran Turismo is a very very big and thus your whole analogy fails. Niether TWEWY or WKC is an established IP. So, the comparison I made is valid. The DS right now is the medium of choice for many rpg fans. TWEWY is a very good game, that reviewed well. It is made by a popular company, Square. It is a new IP. It may be on a different platform than WKC, but it is one that has pushed far more software than the PS3 in japan on a title by title basis.

Now for WKC. It looks good. I don't know what the reviews will say, but I am going to assume they are good. it is made by a good developer, level 5, but it is not quite as big as SE. The platform it sells on has a very much smaller userbase, and alot fewer RPGs on it. So, to expect it to sell as big as TWEWY would be a very big achievement, one I am going to say it makes. This would be a success for a ps3 rpg imo.

So, a similar type of game, both with high quality and a similar name recognition can be compared, even on different platforms. It would be like comparing two new shooters sales wise.

It was a very quick analogy, and there are DOZENS of possible examples. You could think of hundreds of games from each genre on each console that could be compared to each other sales wise, but didn't exactly end up the same way. Touchmaster launched to sales of 14k worldwide, and so did Touch the Dead. On one end, Touchmaster reached 1.2 million and climbing. Touch the Dead is still at 150k. Established IPs are important in Japan, but plenty of games have managed to find success without relying on brand name. I'm not saying that White Knight will as well, but let's not count it out just yet. The World Ends With You is a very strange game sales wise, and I have no idea why it sold so poorly in Japan. Perhaps a lack of advertising? While the DS is the console of choice for RPG owners, the home consoles definitely have their share as well. The 360 has seen a consistent number of RPGs released, the Wii has the highest selling of the generation on a home console, and the PS3 has Final Fantasy 13 and Versus 13 (easily the two most hyped games on the platform, with FF13 being exclusive to the PS3 in Japan). Even if it only had half the attach rate of some of the 360's big RPGs, it could push 300k or more easily.

 

 

Your right, sometimes sales go against what you would think. But, this is a sales site and we are in a sales discussion thread, so I am trying ot use past evidence to support why I think certain numbers are the most likely scenario.

@Gabriel: Dragon Quest is by far the biggest franchise in all of Japan, and its gameplay is ver, very old fashioned.

 



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