I think the overall statement is that it might have cost to much and the advertisment will just drive the cost up. I think I read somewhere that they were using 135 guys on that game alone. I don't know how long KZ2 has been in development but assuming 2 years and a avarage worker cost at 50k USD a year (which might be to much or to little) but that would give KZ2 a budget at somewhere around 15 million USD+ ad advertisment for roughly the same amount 15 millions USD. So a total of 30 millions (shouldn't be totaly wrong), well shouldn't be that hard to beat they need to sell a million WW as the resistance crowd hasn't got a single new fps since then it should be doing ok. Say 1 million WW * 50 USD (sony published and payed for?) = 50 millions USD.

The only problem I see is that I think 50k USD per year might be a little bit low. I make 45k USD a year and I am a newly graduated master of science in mechanical engineering. People with it-knowhow often earn a lot more than mechanical engineers, so they might cost a 10k more a month, but still KZ2 should be able to regain its buget. BUT it wont make tremendous amount of money.

From that 50 million though you need to subtract costs like materials(disc, box, booklet), distribution, retailer margins, running of online features, royalties to Sony and that's just what I can think of off the top of my head. That 50 million could very quickly reduce to below the dev budget you predicted.

commercials or not, people remember the first killzone and that alone will be detourant enough for many hardcore gamers.

I can't speak for every market, but wages are typically around 40% of what it costs to get work done ...

Wages, Benefits, Office Space, Computers, Software, IT staff, HR staff, etc. all adds up over time.

Not if the new ones reviews are good or great. People are smart enough to figure out a game's sequel can be better than the original game.

As for the non hardcore types, they will just see a game that looks great, and looks fun so they'll think it's cool and pick it up.

Of course most of you think every Sony game will fail right... but how about Wii-Fit  ?

Ya I would say that Wiifit is a high risk project. But it's the kind of risk that if successful, increases Wii momentum. Nintendo could stand to lose lots buy could stand to gain much more.

Also I think it was MrStickball that mentioned Alan Wake. This is actually one of the titles that interests me. I will definately check it out. It might do well enough on PC to turn a profit, however I doubt it will make a profit on the 360 alone.

 damn I feel like an idiot, you are totaly correct I missed a lot here. One of the biggest thing is the benefits I just took my monthly pay, but I should have double that with pension founds and so on. If that is the case we are looking at a potentional buget on wages alone for 27 million USD. Then rent for the buildings damn that game needs to sell some million copies that is true. 

I'm gooing to say MGS4. I don't expect Sony to have an amazing userbase by Q1 08 and the game is missing the holiday season. But, who knows. It certainly hyped enough to sell well.

People saying MGS4 or FFXIII won't turn a profit are either Sony haters or off their rockers or maybe both. They will make a profit. Probably not to the extent the PS2 versions of those series did, but let's stop being rediculous.

Very few creative answers here. How about Bio Shock. We really have no idea what that game is going to do, but as a new IP and a release so close to Halo 3 it could end up kind of tanking. How about Heavenly Sword or something. New IPs are the ones we need to look at when looking at this issue. Stranglehold is a good answer I've seen.