At first I was going to get Bioshock but now I'm not so sure. I will go with Halo 3 for the multiplayer experience. I'm really looking forward to Mass Effect though.

@Christopher_G2

 I follow you on Bioshock,  this title is also comming on PC, I see a large part of fps lovers go for the PC version instead of Xbox360.

 And as many said, Strangehold lacks the hype to be sustainable (Woo's name is not enough of a reason to sell a game IMHO). 

Well I don't consider myself either of those. Maybe if you back up your claims with a convincing argument or numbers I'll consider changing my views unitl then I'll stick to what I've said, MGS4 may not make profit(my basis for this belief is earlier in the thread)..

I will be original, I will say Devil May Cry 4, the previous game sold 1.62 mill on a much much larger install base, I don't see the hype around this game even for PS3 fans or M$ fans. And this game is supposed to be released on Q4 2007, where there is a lot of others great games that can steal sales from it. Plus this game is a AAA title so dev cost should be high.

 Wii-Fit wont fail because a lot of health clubs are planning on buying it.

DMC4 might fail.

DBZ:BT3 probably will fail.  

This thread makes no sense as we don't know how much each game cost to make. just because a game has a high amount of graphics don't mean the price to make it wont turn out a profit.

If we can set a bar on making a profit then that would make sense. lets say 200,000 * $60 copies of a game needs to be sold to match development costs on a average ps3 and 360 game. 150,000 * $50 for a full fledged Wii game (not old ports new games like say boogie or no more heroes). 100,000 *40 for DS and PSP games.
I'm no industry analyst but having a calculator helps your logic.

 I forget exactly who said it, maybe Namco?  But some high end developer said that a 360/PS3 game needed around 600k sales to break even.  I'm assuming that's WW and its for close to high budget games.

Assuming $40 profit per game, that's around $24 mil in profit which sounds about right.  We've heard quite a bit of quotes of 20-30 mil budgets for the big names now.

As for the cost of a worker, for most decently large companies with benefits and for a technical profession where there is demand, the wages only make up a small portion of the costs.  After factoring in work space and benefits and support, a 50k salaried worker can cost a company around 150-200k a year.  So it can add up really quickly. 

Keep in mind that the number of people they list as working on the game is not fully represented by company employees.  It could be that of the 50 people working on a profit, 15 of them may have only worked on it for the equivalent of 2-3 months each for the artwork or the soundtrack portion.  Another 10 or so may have been freelance or outsourced people.  This is often overlooked because rarely do companies say it but a large portion of game development is now outsourced to specialized companies and its fairly cheap since they don't gotta pay all the benefits.

MGS4 will do just fine. Apart from the fact that it is guaranteed to have a tweaked version released at a later date too (Substance, Subsistance), don't forget that Metal Gear Online is also being developed using the MGS4 engine, so the investment in development costs is being maximized.

That, and after the recent demo, there are a LOT of people that want this title.

I don't think Too Human for the 360 will make a profit. The game is just cursed. They keep jumping platforms and I don't think that's cheap. Then the whole e3 thing happened and now there suing epic. Also I don't think this game will sell but who knows I might be wrong.

 Of course we don't know what it costs to make most of the games. It's just fun to speculate. It's like who is going to win the World Series? We don't know but people like to analyze. Be it we only have a rough idea of how much each game costs but we do know even with minimal development costs for some games, they will need to sell so many copies to turn profit. I don't think anyone here is claiming to know anything for certain. Some big titles bomb and some low key titles are sleeper hits.  

That said does anyone know how much a company makes on a $60 game? I have trouble believing it's 40 dollars profit. Also I don't think Boogie will bomb. I think it will start off slow and pick up at Christmas. The free mic will sell it.