Killzone 2.

You guys are predicting failure to turn profits based on failure to sell really well, but the cost of making games varies a lot so this isn't the same as what games won't sell as well as expected.

Stranglehold will fail to turn a profit because the game has cost a lot of money to make.

Other than that one, I can't really say because I don't know how much each game costs to make.

Saying Boogie or Eye of Judgment won't make a profit because they won't sell as well as others isn't really accurate. I'm sure the costs of making those games isn't that high so they will make up costs much quicker than bigger games.

Edit:

Also, you guys are severely overestimating how much a game needs to sell to make a profit. If MGS 4 goes on PS3 alone, in February 08, to a userbase of let's say 8 million and it also sells systems as it should, then that is more than enough of a userbase to make a profit on.

GTA IV launches May 08, to a combined userbase of 23 million or so let's say then that is also easily enough to sell enough to make a profit on.

Same with FF XIII and Killzone 2. If these games sell to a good chunk of the userbase and sell systems and increase said userbase then they will all make profit.

There's no way any of these games need more than 3 million sold to make a profit and GTA IV, FF XIII and MGS 4 should easily surpass that even if MGS and FF stay PS3 exclusive. Killzone 2 will have a harder time but if it delivers then it should pass this number.

MGS cannot compete whit GTA and both appears at probalby the same time (early 2008).

I say Killzone 2.

FFXIII will bring money to Square from it's spinoffs.

MGS4 won't that of a OMFGWTFBBQSAUCE hit, but later it will go multiplat or something and will recover.

Except MGS coms out earily 08 and GTA IV  comes out at least in Spring 2008, that's a few months between them more than enough that they don't even have to compete.

Also, MGS 4 is bigger in Japan, so that will help its sales too while GTA is still not that big in Japan. Add to that the fact that MGS 4 is a PS3 exclusive meaning more PS3 owners will consider getting it because of that.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw GTA IV get delayed all the way to summer 08 or even holidays 08. Take Two needs as much profit out of that game as possible because they are in bad shape, so they will wait long to release it and have larger userbases to release to.

Same reason why SE is not hurrying with FF XIII, they had a certain profit in mind and they are waiting for the userbase to get to a point where they project to make that.

These kinds of big games are supposed to bring big profits not just profits so I expect delays with these sort of 3rd party games to go on. The 1st party games are being released to also sell systems, so Sony and MS try to get them out quickly to sell more of their consoles, but 3rd parties can take their time and wait on a game and work on it before releasing so that they have more players to sell to.

I highly doubt MGS4 can turn a profit in Japan alone considering every release previously has sold less than 1 million copies. It's pretty rare for sequels of games to sell exponentially better than the previous without major changes from one to the other (such as FF6 to FF7) or there at least being a history of the franchise having sold much better at some point in time. I see MGS4 having no problems turning a profit in the end, but whether it's sufficient for what they expect is a whole nother matter.

Except Galaxy is costing way less to make and will sell to an install base multiple times the size of PS3's.

Minor deatils!!

EDIT: Oh and lets not forget that the 3d marios average nearly twice as many sales as the average MGS despite being on much less established consoles, until now!!

In conclusion Galaxy will absolutely destroy MGS4 in both profit and sales.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying ...

Using very rough numbers Boogie cost somewhere between $1 Million and $5 Million to develop (probably between $2 Million and $4 Million) whereas Metal Gear Solid 4 cost somewhere between $10 Million and $50 Million to develop (probably between $20 Million and $40 Million); on top of that EA is probably going to do far more focused marketing for Boogie on off peak hours whereas Konami will likely hit more major broadcasters/publications in prime positions.

Personally, I don't see how either of these games could lose money because Boogie was probably so inexpensive that initial orders from retailers in North America could allow it to break even and Metal Gear Solid 4 will likely sell really well even on the small PS3 userbase and will continue to sell a moderate ammount for years to come.

How da F will killzone 2 not turn a profit since its the only exclusive fps other than resistance coming out next year.. the commercials will make it sell big.

Well I'm guessing it'll need sales in excess of any current PS3 game out there to be meaningfully profitable so it's not gauranteed.

Also Red Steel 2 is similiar to KZ2 in that it is a sequel to an underwhelming, overhyped origional but I don't see people making grand claims over it's success!