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HappySqurriel on 06 August 2007
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ckmlb said:

You guys are predicting failure to turn profits based on failure to sell really well, but the cost of making games varies a lot so this isn't the same as what games won't sell as well as expected.

Stranglehold will fail to turn a profit because the game has cost a lot of money to make.

Other than that one, I can't really say because I don't know how much each game costs to make.

Saying Boogie or Eye of Judgment won't make a profit because they won't sell as well as others isn't really accurate. I'm sure the costs of making those games isn't that high so they will make up costs much quicker than bigger games.

Edit:

Also, you guys are severely overestimating how much a game needs to sell to make a profit. If MGS 4 goes on PS3 alone, in February 08, to a userbase of let's say 8 million and it also sells systems as it should, then that is more than enough of a userbase to make a profit on.

GTA IV launches May 08, to a combined userbase of 23 million or so let's say then that is also easily enough to sell enough to make a profit on.

Same with FF XIII and Killzone 2. If these games sell to a good chunk of the userbase and sell systems and increase said userbase then they will all make profit.

There's no way any of these games need more than 3 million sold to make a profit and GTA IV, FF XIII and MGS 4 should easily surpass that even if MGS and FF stay PS3 exclusive. Killzone 2 will have a harder time but if it delivers then it should pass this number.


I agree with a lot of what you're saying ...

Using very rough numbers Boogie cost somewhere between $1 Million and $5 Million to develop (probably between $2 Million and $4 Million) whereas Metal Gear Solid 4 cost somewhere between $10 Million and $50 Million to develop (probably between $20 Million and $40 Million); on top of that EA is probably going to do far more focused marketing for Boogie on off peak hours whereas Konami will likely hit more major broadcasters/publications in prime positions.

Personally, I don't see how either of these games could lose money because Boogie was probably so inexpensive that initial orders from retailers in North America could allow it to break even and Metal Gear Solid 4 will likely sell really well even on the small PS3 userbase and will continue to sell a moderate ammount for years to come.