there's only one thread about GTA4 delay... and it's deterioting into a mario party discussion.  here's a new one!

Companies and Consoles 

- Take 2 is obviously the biggest loser of all.  not only do they miss out on the crucial holiday season, they might have to cough up cash to microsoft.  that's on top of the now increased development cost of the game , and possibly lower overall sales.  Unless they push it all the way back for an entire year.

- Sony and the PS3 stands to suffer more than Microsoft and the 360.  GTA rates to move more PS3 than 360, even if sales is better on the 360.  The reason is clear--360 already has a larger user base, especially after the release of the unit moving Halo 3.  Feel free to discuss this point.

- Microsoft must be slightly unhappy--they've done well to secure exclusive GTA content, in an effort to make people want to get the 360 version instead of the ingrained mentality that "GTA is a Playstation game", and now, the title is delayed.  On the flipside, they must be happy that PS3 won't have a anchor title for this X'mas to establish a user base.  Think of it this way: if GTA4 is wiped off the face of the planet, Microsoft would be happier than Sony, not including the $50 mln deal of course.

- Wii.  Nintendo just need to make sure the Wii isn't sold out.  Iwata must believe in Santa Claus--how else do you get this kind of gift?

- Third parties.  One less AAA+ title to contend against, chance to shine.  Make sure your games are good and they won't go under the radar!

Implications:

- Cost of development.  We've seen multiple PS3 titles delayed now, for one reason or another.  This basically means that development cost is higher than they projected--every extra month means one month's salary, and one fewer month for each programmer to work on another project.  Which implies...

- More resource shift to the 360 and the Wii.  360 by default, Wii by necessity, i.e. $$$.  And with Wii having a shorter development cycle, more games for the Wii--something all the studios know, but only beginning to experience first hand the importance of reducing development cycles.

Points to consider: 

- The state of PS3 in early 2008.  MGS4, GT5, LBP... huge, huge, huge releases, along with GTA4.  If Sony sticks to the 10-year life cycle for the PS3, they could very well consider 2008 as the start of the PS3 era and make Wii looks like a transition console.  It's not too late yet--but they'll need to be proactive about it--start shifting focus to the causal market in a major way like Nintendo is doing.  Unfortunately for them there's no signs whatsoever they're shifting resources.

- Optimal release schedule for GTA4.  Assuming they'll have the game finished before 2008 2Q... February seems like a horrible month.  So do March and April.   Ideally, August or September, then with 360 episodic content in December.  But they're in financial trouble, so they don't really have a choice.  Still an interesting thing to ponder.
 

Zack & wiki and capcom are really happy about getting GTA out of the picture.

Microsoft would rather have an awesome GTA4 in April than an unfinished GTA4 in November/December.  They still have a good holiday lineup.

Sony, I'm not sure.  I'll be honest, I don't know what their holiday lineup looks like, but I know they need every solid title they can get.  I doubt, though, that anyone was going to buy a PS3 to play GTA4 in the first place, especially since it has exclusive content on the 360.  So I don't think this hurts Sony too much either way.

Sounds like spring was always the big moment for the PS3 anyway.

That doesn't mean this Christmas isn't important for Sony, as that one exec said...

The 360 and Wii will undoubtedly do very well this holiday season...which means more ground gained against the PS3...

some hypothetical numbers:

360 user base: 12 mln by the time GTA comes out.
ps3 user base: 5 mln.

say GTA sales split 3-2, sells 5 mln first month. 3 mln for 360, 2 mln for ps3.
say among those 3 mln 360 buyers, 75% already has a 360. but only 50% has a ps3. that means: 0.75 mln GTA sales for 360, but 1 mln GTA sales for ps3.

under these assumptions, which i think is very close to being the case (not necessarily those numbers), the ps3 loses more sales. and that's what i'm getting at.

I think this is actually really good for Sony. The game would have done much better on the 360 this Christmas and having it come a little later may help them if MS's rumored 360 price cut is as small as guessed.

I wouldn't be so sure ChichiriMuyo, GTA4 is the only reason I will be buying a 360 when I can, I know for a fact I wouldn't be the only person thinking the same. The price cut will still be beneficial to me.

Did you read what I said?

Actually this could help Sony.

Bear with me.

Right now you're looking at a $480 360 + $60 copy of GTA4 ... OR ... a $600 PS3 + $60 copy of GTA4. That's a $120 difference. To me I see many more people wanting to spend that $120 on extra controllers and xbox live service.

Now if GTA4 comes out next spring and 360 has it's elite go to $400 and PS3 is able to cut prices down again as is a possibility you could have the 'best' versions of each machine in a $50 range of each other. Given the Bluray option as well Sony could then get the majority of GTA4 people and gain a lot of market share ground.

After all GTA is a massive system seller. I say this could be good if Sony can get their prices near 360's.

As I said in the other thread this is bad for both Sony and MS. It is a system seller that won't be out at the holiday, and fence sitters don't have as much motivation to spend 349-499 for a console with out the game.

I really think that it is more of a system seller for sony despite Live content. Why? Because most buyers are not hardcore (they are the core gamers, Halo-GTA-Madden) and do not pay for downloads. They buy their games at the mall or, more likely, at WalMart and very few of them ever spend any money on services online.