I don't see how that makes GTA4 more of a system-seller on PS3.  So you're not interested in downloadable content, but what's going to make you buy the more expensive console to play GTA4?

I personally like downloadable content.

I think people are going to see that "future episodes exclusive" balloon and not know what it even means or care. Despite the price, low sales and no games PS3 has more positive buzz. The average consumer doesn't know about MS customer service, only that Al Roker said their were recalls and that an xbox killed a baby (which probably isn't even true, but it went to court and had a 30 sec sound byte). 'Last generation console buyers' surveys keep showing that people want a PS3 but feel that it is too expensive or that there are no games.

360 has games so their is already significant motivation for gamers to buy it, GTA wouldn't have as much of an impact. IMO GTAIV would have been one of those games that got people to stop waiting and buy one already. A lot of people waiting for it on 360 may have bought one for Crackdown, Saints Row (both games considered to be for people who couldn't wait for GTA), Gears of War, Lost Planet, the slew of Tom Clancy games that are better or currenty exclusive for 360 (I partially know because I owned Vegas on both). And the 360 is cheaper so you need less motivation.

I am not even a MS fan, and I can give them all that credit. If you look at my post History I am pretty biased (but respectful) against 360. Because 360 is strong it doesn't need GTA as much.

LittleBigPlanet is considered a "huge, huge, huge release" now?

You just blew my mind. Metal Gear Solid 5, Gran Turismo 5, Little Big Planet, GTAIV, and Killzone 2 at the beginning of 2008. My brain blew up into a million pieces.

Well as far as Sony's 10-year plan, as smart as it sounds Sony doesn't stand a chance against Nintendo next generation. You may say well Sony will have been able to lower the PS3 to a affordable cost by 2011, thats true. But unlike Sony Nintendo launches all their consoles at that affordable price. I'm betting PS3 in 2011 will be at best 299.99$. So Nintendo is likely to launch the Wii2 with a couple new gimmicks (Innovations). Your talking the great Wiimote with likely PS3 x2 power. Nintendo would likely take the same approach as they did this generation only slightly improve their visuals above that of the most powerfull last generation. Nintendo will almost definatly launch their next console inside the 200-300$ price range. This will kill off PS3 almost instantly the new Wii will no doubt be completely backwards compatable and with an almost identicle price to PS3 and its newer slicker image it would have no problem mopping the floor with Sony's PS3.

That being said just how big is GTA's delay? , other then to Sony I think its dismal. Microsoft and Nintendo's consoles will be in high demand this fall regardless of whether GTA made it on time or not. Microsoft's Halo3 combined with the few other killer apps alongside Nintendo's dream line-up make both console in high demand. Such high demand that any unit shipping abilities GTA had wouldn't likely impact hardware sales due to units being out of stock. Halo3 will drive 360 sales this fall and Nintendo has Mario , SmashBros , Metroid , BattalionWars and the half dozen other killer apps to drive it.

 The only one set to loose here in Sony, but honestly are they loosing much. Just how many hardware units could GTA's lesser PS3 version ship? I mean honestly Sony's taking a dirt nap right now nothing good seems to be out and not many great games from any established franchises on their way (Other then MGS/GT and Killzone). Honestly Sony would bomb this fall regardles.

 Now Take-2 lets face it their in the crapper right now. Their loosing millions and millions on a weekly basis. With their big reveniew makers like ManHunt2 getting banned and dropped by both Nintendo and Sony! The continues lawsuits and the investigations and arrests are leaving T2 in very bad shape. Whats the best GTA could do (Break the company even) but it could also start a whole new list of lawsuits further the PR damage and push the company to its final stand. What Take-2 needs right now are some clean killer apps some games that won't get them sued or arrested games that will actually generate solid profit not get banned from sale.

So GTA might have lightened the blow abit but don't kid yourself when faced with the idea buy a PS3 for GTA or buy a 360 for GTA with exclusive content the only sales Sony would be making are from the guys who couldn't locate 360's!

Original poster, flawless analysis (I love it).

However, that is if you're taking Rockstar's GTA announcement at face value. You see, just recently Sony said out of the blue that they would be the winner of this generation easily be March 2008 - right around GTA's release date. I think it's pretty clear Sony has a major, major price cut in plan, and with that they believe the Sony Playstation brand name will be good enough to sell the machine.

 And that's why GTA is being released around that time, to capitalise on the much larger PS3 fanbase.

 Since when is the PS3 $600 dollars?  Who's to say the 60 gb unit will not still be available or better still that the 80 gb will slide down to that price point? 

Doesn't matter much because he was comparing it to the most expensive Xbox 360 model anyway...

I see a lot of people saying something along these lines, not just ChichiriMuyo. The problem is that this sentiment misses the point; it treats the gaming market as a zero-sum game, which is not the case. Sure, on the small scale of one individual's purchase, you can view the purchase of a 360 or a PS3 as a zero-sum game; the consumer buys one OR the other, not both. But this is a foolish way to view the market in the larger version of things. Microsoft selling fewer units this Christmas is not a victory for Sony, any more than the reverse is true. They're both losers if they move fewer consoles than they otherwise would have done.

A lot of you are posting that this is "good" for the high-end consoles, because at some intederminate date in the spring they will have lower prices via aggressive price-cutting. This is also a silly thing to say; regardless of the actual prices of the 360 and PS3 in Spring 2008, they will both assuredly be at least $300, if not higher. The number of people willing to pay $300+ for a gaming system is much, MUCH lower in March or April than it is in November or December. For this reason, there's no way that this delay "helps" either Microsoft or Sony. Who cares if they double April sales from 100k to 200k units, if that means selling 500k instead of 1000k units this December? See what I mean?

For Grand Theft Auto itself, this news is a total disaster. This will sound like heresy to some on this board, but I think the game will struggle to sell 5 million copies (total, all platforms) if it actually releases in a Spring timeframe. Crazy? Consider this. When GTA3 came out, it was on the console with 1) by far the highest install base, PS2 already in the tens of millions worldwide 2) a low entry price, $200 for GTA3 and lower than that for the sequels 3) releasing right at the optimal time for a strong holiday season in late October/early November 4) future sales were carried by very strong initial sales that spread via word-of-mouth. None of those factors will hold true this generation; we have GTA4 releasing on consoles 1) with small install bases, under 20 million for 360/PS3 combined 2) very high entry prices, at least $300+ for each system 3) a horrible release window, in the slowest sales months of the year 4) little momentum to carry future sales. That last one is a big deal; the more people purchase a game initially, the more non-purchasers see the game (from friends, relatives, whatever) and are motivated to purchase later. In short, I'm expecting another bloodbath of red ink for Take-Two. They've budgeted a game expecting 10 million sales, and I don't think they will even come close to that.

A lot to say, but this really is the biggest gaming announcement in months, and one of the most important delayed games ever.