I hope people do not forget that all the consoles are supply constrained. So there was already a set limit as to how many units could have been sold anyway. Nintendo obviously has the higher sell through. Both Microsoft, and Sony have fallen short of their own goals. Sadly Sony has come out the worse for ware on that side of the coin they missed by a much larger margin.
That means the matter is really finalized as far as who was going to win this season between Microsoft and Sony. Microsoft had the higher install base to begin with, and they have around the same supply as Sony. So even if both systems sold out which is highly unlikely. Microsoft would still be ahead. In fact Sony would need to sell many fold better then Microsoft to pull ahead. When price is a major factor in consumer spending that seems illogical. People can only buy what they can afford
The only real question is whether Microsoft could make for an interesting fight with Nintendo this holiday season, and that is where this game does have a real value. While it was going to generate the majority of its sales on the Microsoft console. We cannot overlook one fact Nintendo has its own GTA clones on the system for that market.
You might belittle titles like Godfather, and Scarface. You simply cannot ignore the fact that they are the same genre of game however. That means that Nintendo is actually the only console this season delivering even moderately similar gameplay. Even if the games are old ports. Does that really matter if your looking to get a football game, GTA type game, and a AAA game the console that actually has a somewhat perfect hand is the Nintendo Wii.
I know cruel joke very funny. Actually Microsoft still keeps the dynamic they had before they lost this title. You simply put Crackdown in its place. Wait did everyone forget about that exclusive title for the 360? You know what it might appeal to new buyers of the system. Basically it is the same genre of game as well. The angle is somewhat different however it has much of the same feel.
The only console that will not have a title for that genre will be the Sony console. Last I checked they did not have a single game that matches that bill. People who want the experience have the option on the other two consoles. Personally I find those other three offerings satisfying. They might not be GTA, but they easily fill the void.
Will this hurt sales for the top end systems and help the low end system. Well the answer is marginally. Yes some players are only motivated by this title. However I am willing to bet the loss of impulse buyer is made up in the form of informed buyer. They knew the title was coming and checked into the systems. Now they probably have greater motivation to buy not less. The game already brought people into window shop. Half of the system moving power has already been spent.
I think when you look at this holiday season you will find that this game really did not matter in the grand scheme of things. Unless you look at the lack of a title of this nature as a fatal flaw to a console lineup. Then in that case you feel Sony really lost out. Not the other two they have their bases covered. Hell losing this game was great for the other three I mentioned.