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Forums - Sales Discussion - On Sony closing the gap in 2009....

nightsurge said:

Why are you taking an average console userbase? If you are using the total 2008 game sales, you have to use the total 2008 console sales:

Using your game figures:

Ps3: 52.9M
X360: 72M

And the 2008 console sales:
PS3: 7,976,128
X360: 6,835,100

So the average games per console sold for 2008:
PS3: 6.6
X360: 10.5

Now obviously that shows a bit skewed since the 360 has a larger user base, so we'd have to use lifetime sales of both games and consoles and the new average games per console sold is:
PS3: ~5.4
X360: ~8.1

And since each new multi-plat game sells better on the 360 than the PS3 and a plethora of exclusives coming for each in 2009 (of which 360 exclusives sell better than PS3 exclusives as seen from the past), I find that this ratio gap will not be closing anytime soon.

 

Okay, this is kindergarden logic here.

How much they sold in 2008 is pretty irrelevant. How their total installbases are is much more important.

As I said in my post, average games pr console should be pretty much this.


Ps3: 4.1 games

X360: 3.75 games

You can ignore the silly joke at the end of my post.

It's dead on even, as the Ps3 has sold more HW, and new buyers tend to buy slightly more games.

 

 

Now, why is your logic flawed? Well, first.

So the average games per console sold for 2008:
PS3: 6.6
X360: 10.5

 

This is like claiming the people who bought consoles before 08 haven't bought any new games. It is totally irrelevant to the topic.

 


Now obviously that shows a bit skewed since the 360 has a larger user base, so we'd have to use lifetime sales of both games and consoles and the new average games per console sold is:
PS3: ~5.4
X360: ~8.1

 

This is also silly. X360 has a year head start, and obviously this affects the AR. If we look at X360s AR one year ago, it is far lower. Of course, this isn't totally precise as 2006 software sales aren't totally precise.

 

Anyway, the 360 had sold 13M HW, and 64M software. That's 4.9. Considering the possible undertrack, they're pretty much dead on in AR.

 

So in my conclusion: X360 and Ps3 are selling SW at an almost equal rate. Some slight differences, but not enough to draw a conclusion that 1 sells more than another. In other words, it is pretty much doing the exact same thing as the hardware.  If one would sell a lot more than the other, it would also sell more software on an equal rate to the increase over the other.



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Oh, I see how this works...

The Blu Ray is the PS3's biggest features... but its not a reason for why its selling.


So all the "PS3 is of better value cause of the Blu Ray" threads/statements/replies are all BS.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its the ONLY reason. I'm saying its the only thing that differentiates the PS3 from the 360 other then the price.



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The war between the 360 fans and the PS3 fans in recent weeks have been quite interesting to watch. But it is also quite funny as the war is a war of insigniface - that is which of the two consoles will avoid the wooden spoon this gen. For me PS3 has already won that award irrespective of whether it ends up finishing above 360 given that it came into this gen with a 120m brand name against a 25 million brand name



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how some people think the 360 can hold onto its lead is byeond me! i mean looking at the sales and the price sais it all really. i aint gonna go into too much detail and thats all im gonna say.



nightsurge said:

Same situation for me as well.  I'm a PS360 owner, but all my PS3 does is gather dust or play Blu-Rays every now and then, which may stop with my new Netflix subscription and Xbox update.  Hopefully Killzone 2 may change that.

 

well both of them have mostly the same games, unless you have a real hard on for halo or gears?



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gebx said:
Oh, I see how this works...

The Blu Ray is the PS3's biggest features... but its not a reason for why its selling.


So all the "PS3 is of better value cause of the Blu Ray" threads/statements/replies are all BS.

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its the ONLY reason. I'm saying its the only thing that differentiates the PS3 from the 360 other then the price.

Good Reverse troll, but you can do better.



Lifetime, the PS3 has 17 software titles that have sold at least a million copies.  The 360 has 47.  FORTY SEVEN.  In fact, lets break it down even more.

PS3
Over 1 million: 10

Over 2 million:  2

Over 3 million:  4

Over 4 million: 1

Over 5 million: 0

360

Over 1 million:  29

Over 2 million:  11

Over 3 million:   1

Over 4 million:   2

Over 5 million:   1

Over 6 million:   2

Over 7 million:   0

Over 8 million:   1

So why did I type all of that?  I dunno.  I guess to show that the 360 has a broader number of titles that sell high numbers, which would be attractive to 3rd party devs.  I know this is nothing new, but it still bears mentioning.



Before declaring XB360 "Xmas 2008 2nd place winner" I'd wait to be sure that early price cut hadn't the same effect of Halo 3 release in 2007 (i.e. a boost, but also pushing forward Xmas sales, so that the usual Xmas boost was somehow a little bit spoiled).



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RolStoppable said:
Oyvoyvoyv said:

Just to get a few facts in.

2008 sales so far.

Ps3: 52.9M

X360: 72M

 

Average console userbase (not really, I took in the middle of current and start)

Ps3: 12.9M

X360: 19.25M

 

Average games pr console:

Ps3: 4.1

X360: 3.75 games

 

Conclusion: People are buying X360s to use them as HD-DVDs only.

So how exactly do people fit Xbox 360s into their HD-DVD players?

 

Oyvoyvoyv + RolStoppable. It really doesn't get much better in these forums.



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Oyvoyvoyv, you only argued points that I already mentioned. What you were using for your attach rate, was very off, though. That is all I was trying to show. The correct attach rate when comparing the first 1-2 years of either console shows:
PS3: 5.3
X360: 6.6

And those are the official estimates. I'd assume they are much more reliable and accurate than your briefly thought out, flawed concept numbers you had.