QFT. I for one believe the Wii is locked to win, however, I have stated since its launch that the proof in the pudding will be found this holiday. If Wii outsells both and is still sold out through the beginning of next year, then, there is now way either of the others will catch up. Wii 4 life!!

 ...and...even though it has a smaller game library it has by far outsold any other compitition to Nintendo's handhelds. That in itself makes the PSP a successfull venture for Sony.

 Why do nintendo fanboys get so upseat when any one mentions Wiis games are GC looking and most 3rd party support is old ports and mediocre mini/party games ? Even nintendos own games have all been mediocre or GC ports, the first legit "wii" games will be Metroid, Galaxy or SSBM. 

 Apperantly neither sides takes legit criticism very well.

the wii might burn out for the casuals and it needs to appeal to its base of ninty fan boys. why is the wii a success? the wii fanboys hyped it like mad (o and it appeals to non gamers but that is minor). nintendo needs to keep up the casual side, but in all seriousness the wii will fade if it doesnt keep the ninty fans happy.

i can see it going strong even through this year (it will almost for sure) and fade later. no one has any idea about the end of this generation since we dont know about casuals and consoles. before they have always gone with the winner since it has casual software at the middle to end of the cycle. invoking casuals at the beginning is an unknown strategy. also we dont really know the power of sequels to casuals. they might go with the wii or they might wait till the ps3 is a better price. the casual is the most unknown group in the gaming industry and we're seeing a most unusual generation of machines.

I don't think hardcore games are what's going to keep the Wii ball rolling. I think Casual games will and that is what Nintendo is going to do with Wii Fit. Casuals are fickle and it only takes ONE title to keep them going for a while. Most casuals refer to Wii as a game, not a game console, and the game they mean is Wii Sports. That is all Wii is to them, Wii Sports. They paid $250 for Wii Sports. Many more will pay $250 for Wii Fit. It's just the way the Mass Market works. Wii Sports (and to a lesser extent Wii Play) has pretty much fueled the Wii craze for almost a year.

Nintendo's heart though is with gamers. That is why you are seeing Smash Brothers, Mario Galaxy, Metroid 3, Zelda, Batallion Wars 2, etc all in a year's time. Nintendo doesn't have to work hard to make a casual game, but they are spending most of their time, what? Drinking coffee and eating donuts? NO. making hardcore games like the above.

Nintendo announce one new Casual game at E3 and everyone gets into an uproar. ONE. Why only one? Because that is all it takes for casuals. Everything else, is YOURS, hardcore gamer! Feeding Casual Gamers only requires a single simple fun title every once in a while, but hardcore gamers require many very complex and deep games to keep them focused. But Casual games is where the sales are! Easy money. Then the hardcores can be taken care of later. Sales => games. Casuals => hardcore. Get it?

The problem is is that one or two simple games get REALLY popular thanks to Casuals eating it up and everyone thinks that that's all there is and simple is the wave of the future based on the popularity of one game. No, they are just feeding the flock is all. You'll get yours, but spoiled brat gamers have to have 100 titles tailored to them for every 1 title that everyone else in the world gets, otherwise they feel cheated. Nobody's taking your ball, everyone else is just finally getting one of their own.

I could understand it if it were like other "console wars".  But it's not, there is plenty of room for all three (or atleast two):

1. More people are gaming.  Not just in existing markets, new markets are opening up or expanding.(i.e. nongamers and whole regions).

2. Nintendo Wii is not a HD console (I know, I know,  I was shocked when I found out too).  Some people buy games because of the way they look.

3. There are still people, and will be people, that like to play with buttons.

4. By Nintendo not going HD, Sony and MS have the ability to wait to release new consoles.  If Nintendo does come out with an early successor, it will likely only be slightly more powerful (like upped resolutions, texture features).

I am a big Nintendo Fan, that owns multiple consoles.  I am not the type to be upset when someone else succeeds (I mean in real life) and it kinda plays out in this generation.  Their is a strong possibility that all three could be profitable next year.  Unless MS and Sony keep up the Money Fight. (some one photoshop a pic for that )

 You're right, they aren't blind to it.  That's why they're starting to shift away from the PS3/360 and move toward the Wii.

I can't believe how petty some of these arguments get.  "WII IZ 4 OLD PEEPL AND LIL KIDZ!11"  Grow up.  I buy games I like, and you buy games you like, and if the first thought in your mind is "Is this game targeted to my age group?" your view of game quality is warped. 

Third parties aren't blind to this either:

http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000873991

• The gamer demographic is expanding beyond its core young male audience to include more women and older adults
• Nearly 40 percent of gamers are female, and nearly a quarter of gamers are over the age of 40
• Women tend to spend more of their game time playing with friends and family
  

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1004798

• 60%-70% of casual game players are females over 30
• 62% of US computer and video game players are male, while 38% are female
  

http://ezinearticles.com/?Video-Game-Demographics&id=352934

• 39% of people who play computer and video games are women
• Forty percent of online gamers are also women
• 65% of game players are over eighteen years old

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4021/is_2002_May_1/ai_88679445 

• 41 percent of people who frequent online game sites like GameSpot, Candystand and Pogo are women
• 43 percent are ages 25 to 49
• "There are many games that appeal to women between 34 and 59, who are a prime demographic," says Jane Chen, director of strategy at YaYa
• Lycos Gamesville users are 60 percent female, and 65 percent are over age 35

http://www.pluginz.com/news/224

• the average console user is already an adult
• the number of high-intensity users is set to grow 40% by 2007
• low-intensity puzzle and board games dominate the favorite genre
• the broad appeal of low-intensity puzzle and board games among online adult users: 61% of those surveyed cited this as their favorite genre
  

http://theschwartz.wordpress.com/2006/10/09/shifting-gaming-demographics/

• future growth in the game industry is especially focused in the areas of female and online games, and the already-sold stereotypical demographic of teenage boys playing console and handheld games is stagnant or in decline
• And last and most interesting, the “online console gaming” niche is the place where the seperate demographic groups that we’re talking about might be converging. This is a very important point because of its implications: first of all, this could break the “offline teenage console gamer stereotype” out of that offline scenario and bringing it online, making it more social. And second of all, if satisfying online console content is available for them, the older and the female and the casual online gamer demographics could move in the direction of the consoles - a very important shift, since they are all primarily online on the PC now

If "your type" buys the most games, but loses ground in marketshare, third parties won't give a damn because the bulk of the sales will still go elsewhere - and third parties will develop less and less for "your type".

You better hope third parties don't get access to this information, which is a cinch to look up with a search engine... 

Nintendo fans aren't upset. The Wii is doing about 20x better than the gamecube in terms of gaming variety and number of games. Of course, for some people, this STILL isn't good enough, because Nintendo doesn't give away gold bars with the Wii.

The Wii caught 3rd parties off guard, because they assumed (LIKE MOST PEOPLE DID, MIND YOU) that the Wii was just going to be in last place, because Nintendo consoles have been in last place for 10 years.

No single company is going to "win" this generation of videogames, any more than a car company "wins" by producing the most cars. (For decades, GM was the biggest producer... didn't do them a bit of good.) The days when a Nintendo could single-handedly generate 70% of all global videogame sales (late 1980s) are gone forever. The PS2 was the last console in history to achieve something like hegemony, and even its reign had more holes than Swiss cheese (huge PC market, respectable sales of GC and Xbox, Nintendo dominated handhelds, etc.).

Game-capable cellphone sales are exploding. Consoles can't touch that. Online games are exploding. Consoles can't touch that. Consoles themselves are more diverse than ever before, ranging from $129 to $169 to $250 to $399 to $499, which means their sales can't really be compared. Each appeals to a vastly different audience and market.