1st bold: That is the way should be, but the reason why Sega had to drop hardware, and MS and Sony are losing so much money is because they do look at it as a market where only the leader can make money.  They are so far off, Nintendo has always made money, because profitablity is independent (or only slightly dependent) of market share.  That is why I think Sony and MS might learn their lesson this time around.  

I really think Sony learned it before the PS3 even came out, with the 10 year statements.  If MS were to come out with a Next-Gen console in '10 or '11, I think Sony would ignore it, and let MS make the same mistakes again.  The same wouldn't be true if it were the other way around.

The market is better off going with revisions for a while, (like Gameboy, DS, PSone and PS2 did).  There is no reason for manufacturers to rush in if they are going to lose several billion each time.

2nd bold:I agree to further back up the idea...  Even in a Monopoly or Oligopoly, others can still make money.  You might see a Chinese company enter regionally, (like Kia/Hyundai in Korea).  There are plenty of gaming devices that hook up to a TV that aren't Nintendo, Sony, or MS, and these companies make a profit.  What if one of those companies starts making original content.  There is no reason they couldn't continue to make a profit as long as it doesn't try to compete with the high end market (i.e. stay in the under $50 range/extreme impulse range and provide alot of gaming for the money).

The N64(according to this site)sold 5million WW the GC sold 16million WW so by this the Wii will sell atleast 3times what the GC sold which is 48million atleast which is quite respectable but it depends on what the PS3 and X360.The PS3 is on target for PS2 sales for awhile and the X360 is on target for PS2/XB sales so this Gen might be interesting(sales wise).

Agreed. The whole concept of the term "win" is pretty silly. That said - you can define parameters, then discuss who will win within those parameters (most common being "largest console install base").

I actually think profit is much more important, which is why Ninty actually did pretty well with both the N64 & GC. And as we all know, its software that really creates mega-bucks - not hardware sales.

PS - there was a funny comment from a Sony executive today - he said something like "Its good that our PS3 sales are weak, as this helps our bottom line" (!!).

 Are you joking? The only thing that keeps the PS3 close to the PS2 for the moment is that PS2 numbers on this site doesn't include numbers from others and the PS3 was launched WW. Look at Japanese PS2 sales vs PS3 WW, those numbers says everything: PS3 has now WW sold just a little more than PS2 did in Japan alone. Sony has lost Japan and that is enough for not doing PS2 numbers.

Xbo360 might sell better than XB but to state that it is even close to doing PS2 numbers is insane. With the awfull sales in Japan medicore sales in EU, xbox360 will never be a PS2 saleswise.

The Wii might not get PS2 numbers but they are doing nice numbers. With the latest increase in shipment Nintendo should be able to hold a 20-22 million user base WW in the end of fiscal year 07 (march 08 I think). That is the same amount as the GameCube has LTD. From there one I think there is no looking back. I personally think that Wii will at least sell PS2 numbers in Japan and that lead alone should make Wii a possible WW winner even if xbox360 or PS3 starts selling in USA and EU.

It's getting heated uhoh...

To make it simple just look at Shams Avatar:

Will PacMan's mouth open or close?

@topic: The bigger problem with MS and Sony (which they seem to be correcting with PSP and should be able to adapt with PS3) is that they are running on a model where "domination" is necessary for their to be profit. This is proving very bad for them.

While "winning" is something that fans will always care about, companies should make that a lower priority.

Traditionally the reason why there is always a disproportionate split in development has been that one console's expected return on investment always looks dramatically better than the others.

Total Cost = Expected Development Cost + Marketing Costs
Return = Expected Sales * Per Unit Profit
Return on Investment = (Return - Total Cost) / Total Cost

Fairly soon this calculation (and the variations of it that are used by most publishers) will start looking very ugly for both the PS3 and the XBox 360. The combination of higher development cost combined with lower expected sales (due to smaller userbase) has a massive impact on this equation.

Unless Microsoft can reverse their sales trend soon, lower development costs, or raise per unit profit on every game it will become very difficult for them to attract new exclusive third party development.

Well if you mean sell most consoles... I'd go Nintendo but they can still lose it, mostly if PS3 actually does last 10 years, or HD TVS suddenly become the norm.

Or possibly if Xbox dumps even more money into the gaming division and buy a couple JRPG exlucsives forcing the Japanese to adopt the console to play some of their favorites.

Not likely though.

If you mean implementing their own will... no way Wii loses that one. I bet Microsoft is already coming out with their own Wii-mote like device, while PS3 is likely trying to make something not as bad as the Sixaxis as well.

Not saying they'll switch to a wand first system but i bet Wii like controls will end up being "secondary" controllers like the NES with the Light Zapper come next generation.

When it comes to profit. Wii... wins. Kinda. Wii will make more money then PS3 or 360 when it comes to system and games... though if Blu-ray becomes big(Not beat HD-DVD but actually be used by people.) it could make money. Sacrificing early PS3 sales to make Blu-Ray win and also eating loss on each system is definitly worth it for the company as a whole.

My first HD TV will likely be purchased when they stop selling regular TVs. I perfer two equal cheap TVs for gaming since i have a lot of systems to play. I mean my Nintedo still works and there are plenty of games for it that are still fun to this day.

Now if I could only find an old enough TV or converter for my Atari and Balley Astrocade... and a place to put it.

The scenario of Wii sales decreasing gradually over the next year and the other consoles overtaking it has pretty much left the realm of possibility by now. It would require a total reversal in sales trends, and be totally different to how the market works. The only even remotely likely course of events in which the Xbox 360 or PS3 would sell more units is if Nintendo for some reason decides to release a new console that is not counted as a new version of the Wii too soon and kills their own sales. The astonishing profits that they've been making lately might drive them to do something stupid, or focus too much on a single segment of the market. It's also difficult to estimate how the increase in HDTV adoption rates is going to affect the console market, but I don't expect it to be too drastic.

The Wii has several top notch "hardcore" games coming out in the next 6 months, but aside from those we don't really know what'll be released in 2008. Another software drought like the one we had earlier this year is also one of the negative scenarios I can think of, but it's not like we have a great amount of names for 2008 titles for the other platforms either. Besides, most of the kickass 2007 games are 2008 for Europe. =P

That would explain the weird sales of GC and N64 then and the PS2 which was only at 62million(about).