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Forums - Sony Discussion - PS3 outsells Xbox360 by 40% in America since price drop.

To be honest, I'm rather convinced that an extremely high attach rate for a specific titles is a bad thing for the system as a whole.  There is both empirical evidence and logic to back this theory.

First, please notice that neither the PS2 nor the PS1 had a title that even breached fifteen percent attach rates, let alone 20 and super-duper-let-alone 25 or 30. By contrast, the Dreamcast, N64, Gamecube, and Xbox all did see attach rates this high on specific games. Since the beginning of the PS1 era, every system that's lost the race has had at least one game with an attach rate above 20 percent; both of the system's that have won the race haven't had a single game breach 15 percent. That's only 12 years of data (the data before that is quite muddled by a variety of factors, most noticably the bundling of Super Mario games in NES sales), but it's rather telling.

Logically, I believe this makes sense as well. Let's run with Leo-J's example of Killzone2 selling through to 90 percent of the PS3's user base. I hope we can all agree that Killzone2 will, for the most part, sell to males, and those males will probably fall in to the 16-30 age bracket. That's an extremely lucrative bracket, to be sure. However, if 90 percent of PS3 owners buy Killzone2, and the vast majority of Killzone2 owners are in the stated demographic, then it stands to reason that 90 percent of the PS3's demographic (give or take 10 percent! :p ) falls in to the stated demographic. Having less than 10 percent of your entire audience be  women of any age, males under the age of 16, and males over the age of 35 is quite restrictive.

The reason that GTA didn't have an enormous attach rate (despite its monster sales) is that there were simply too many people who bought the PS2 for other reasons; if your system has a lot of demographics (young girls, young boys, middle aged women, middle aged men, old women, old men, and any division therein) then a particular game that tends to focus on a particular demographic cannot have an extremely high attach rate, logically speaking. The only real counterexample would be a game that is 1) extraordinarily good and 2) manages to appeal to several demographics at once, which is a very difficult task to accomplish. 

This isn't aimed at the PS3, by the way. I used Leo-J's example as a launching point; I'm only pointing out that extreme attach rates are probably a bad thing.  



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wangfoo said:
leo-j said:
90% of ps3 owners will get killzone2. I think it will sell as good as halo 3 if my 8 million by killzone release install base predicito is proven true.

Jesus bud, take a few breaths. 90%? You honestly think it has a higher attache rate than a game that comes packed in in all but one territory?

Your right 90% is optomistic, around 70% of the ps3 owners is what to me would be more accurate. That game looks so fun. I think it will sell beter than resistance.



 

mM
Bodhesatva said:

To be honest, I'm rather convinced that an extremely high attach rate for a specific titles is a bad thing for the system as a whole.  There is both empirical evidence and logic to back this theory.

First, please notice that neither the PS2 nor the PS1 had a title that even breached fifteen percent attach rates, let alone 20 and super-duper-let-alone 25 or 30. By contrast, the Dreamcast, N64, Gamecube, and Xbox all did see attach rates this high on specific games. Since the beginning of the PS1 era, every system that's lost the race has had at least one game with an attach rate above 20 percent; both of the system's that have won the race haven't had a single game breach 15 percent. That's only 12 years of data (the data before that is quite muddled by a variety of factors, most noticably the bundling of Super Mario games in NES sales), but it's rather telling.

Logically, I believe this makes sense as well. Let's run with Leo-J's example of Killzone2 selling through to 90 percent of the PS3's user base. I hope we can all agree that Killzone2 will, for the most part, sell to males, and those males will probably fall in to the 16-30 age bracket. That's an extremely lucrative bracket, to be sure. However, if 90 percent of PS3 owners buy Killzone2, and the vast majority of Killzone2 owners are in the stated demographic, then it stands to reason that 90 percent of the PS3's demographic (give or take 10 percent! :p ) falls in to the stated demographic. Having less than 10 percent of your entire audience be  women of any age, males under the age of 16, and males over the age of 35 is quite restrictive.

The reason that GTA didn't have an enormous attach rate (despite its monster sales) is that there were simply too many people who bought the PS2 for other reasons; if your system has a lot of demographics (young girls, young boys, middle aged women, middle aged men, old women, old men, and any division therein) then a particular game that tends to focus on a particular demographic cannot have an extremely high attach rate, logically speaking. The only real counterexample would be a game that is 1) extraordinarily good and 2) manages to appeal to several demographics at once, which is a very difficult task to accomplish. 

This isn't aimed at the PS3, by the way. I used Leo-J's example as a launching point; I'm only pointing out that extreme attach rates are probably a bad thing.  


You have to understand that resistance has sold a near 2 million copies, The ps3 user base is nearly 4 milion, technicly around 45-55% of ps3 owners have resistance, and I think all of those 2 million owners of resistance will purchase killzone. By that time the ps3 user base may be around 8 million. The other 6 million I think 2 out of 6 of those million will purchase killzone2. Two and Two is Four. Adding to around a 4 million amount of killzone copies being sold. Adding to around 45-55%  of ps3 owners having killzone 2. But ounce that game "if" considered a huge hit such as halo or mgs, more poeple will buy it with a ps3, increasing the amount of owners to 60-70%. 90% though is possible but not likely, as I stated it was optimistic.



 

mM

^It is so highly optimistic that it doesn't even deserve a response.



naznatips said:
bbsin said:
If Halo can keep the Xbox(1) afloat then.... GranTurismo can do the same for pS3, especially if they do the whole GT bundle like always.

I'm not so sure. GT is a casual game and the PS3 is not a casual system.


 I would'nt really put GT as a casual game. Most casual gamers probably won't be able to past the license tests. Car sims are not that easy to get into, even if it's a racing game. But that really wasn't my point with the GT keeping the PS3 afloat. I was going by popularity, hype and past sales performance.... the 3 key factors of a system seller. GT has sold better than any other franchise besides Pokemon and Mario, i highly doubt the next game would have a steep drop.



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bbsin said:
naznatips said:
bbsin said:
If Halo can keep the Xbox(1) afloat then.... GranTurismo can do the same for pS3, especially if they do the whole GT bundle like always.

I'm not so sure. GT is a casual game and the PS3 is not a casual system.


 I would'nt really put GT as a casual game. Most casual gamers probably won't be able to past the license tests. Car sims are not that easy to get into, even if it's a racing game. But that really wasn't my point with the GT keeping the PS3 afloat. I was going by popularity, hype and past sales performance.... the 3 key factors of a system seller. GT has sold better than any other franchise besides Pokemon and Mario, i highly doubt the next game would have a steep drop.

Hopefully gt prolugue uses the six axis.

 



 

mM
Bodhesatva said:

To be honest, I'm rather convinced that an extremely high attach rate for a specific titles is a bad thing for the system as a whole. There is both empirical evidence and logic to back this theory.

First, please notice that neither the PS2 nor the PS1 had a title that even breached fifteen percent attach rates, let alone 20 and super-duper-let-alone 25 or 30. By contrast, the Dreamcast, N64, Gamecube, and Xbox all did see attach rates this high on specific games. Since the beginning of the PS1 era, every system that's lost the race has had at least one game with an attach rate above 20 percent; both of the system's that have won the race haven't had a single game breach 15 percent. That's only 12 years of data (the data before that is quite muddled by a variety of factors, most noticably the bundling of Super Mario games in NES sales), but it's rather telling.

Logically, I believe this makes sense as well. Let's run with Leo-J's example of Killzone2 selling through to 90 percent of the PS3's user base. I hope we can all agree that Killzone2 will, for the most part, sell to males, and those males will probably fall in to the 16-30 age bracket. That's an extremely lucrative bracket, to be sure. However, if 90 percent of PS3 owners buy Killzone2, and the vast majority of Killzone2 owners are in the stated demographic, then it stands to reason that 90 percent of the PS3's demographic (give or take 10 percent! :p ) falls in to the stated demographic. Having less than 10 percent of your entire audience be women of any age, males under the age of 16, and males over the age of 35 is quite restrictive.

The reason that GTA didn't have an enormous attach rate (despite its monster sales) is that there were simply too many people who bought the PS2 for other reasons; if your system has a lot of demographics (young girls, young boys, middle aged women, middle aged men, old women, old men, and any division therein) then a particular game that tends to focus on a particular demographic cannot have an extremely high attach rate, logically speaking. The only real counterexample would be a game that is 1) extraordinarily good and 2) manages to appeal to several demographics at once, which is a very difficult task to accomplish.

This isn't aimed at the PS3, by the way. I used Leo-J's example as a launching point; I'm only pointing out that extreme attach rates are probably a bad thing.


Super Mario Galaxy.



naznatips said:
Bodhesatva said:

To be honest, I'm rather convinced that an extremely high attach rate for a specific titles is a bad thing for the system as a whole. There is both empirical evidence and logic to back this theory.

First, please notice that neither the PS2 nor the PS1 had a title that even breached fifteen percent attach rates, let alone 20 and super-duper-let-alone 25 or 30. By contrast, the Dreamcast, N64, Gamecube, and Xbox all did see attach rates this high on specific games. Since the beginning of the PS1 era, every system that's lost the race has had at least one game with an attach rate above 20 percent; both of the system's that have won the race haven't had a single game breach 15 percent. That's only 12 years of data (the data before that is quite muddled by a variety of factors, most noticably the bundling of Super Mario games in NES sales), but it's rather telling.

Logically, I believe this makes sense as well. Let's run with Leo-J's example of Killzone2 selling through to 90 percent of the PS3's user base. I hope we can all agree that Killzone2 will, for the most part, sell to males, and those males will probably fall in to the 16-30 age bracket. That's an extremely lucrative bracket, to be sure. However, if 90 percent of PS3 owners buy Killzone2, and the vast majority of Killzone2 owners are in the stated demographic, then it stands to reason that 90 percent of the PS3's demographic (give or take 10 percent! :p ) falls in to the stated demographic. Having less than 10 percent of your entire audience be women of any age, males under the age of 16, and males over the age of 35 is quite restrictive.

The reason that GTA didn't have an enormous attach rate (despite its monster sales) is that there were simply too many people who bought the PS2 for other reasons; if your system has a lot of demographics (young girls, young boys, middle aged women, middle aged men, old women, old men, and any division therein) then a particular game that tends to focus on a particular demographic cannot have an extremely high attach rate, logically speaking. The only real counterexample would be a game that is 1) extraordinarily good and 2) manages to appeal to several demographics at once, which is a very difficult task to accomplish.

This isn't aimed at the PS3, by the way. I used Leo-J's example as a launching point; I'm only pointing out that extreme attach rates are probably a bad thing.


Super Mario Galaxy.


 Or Little Big Planet, possibly. Those were the first two that came to my mind.



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ioi said:
Ha, all the Killzone love amuses me, did you guys see how well the first game sold?

I think it will do well but 90% attach rates (even over 25%) is not going to happen I'm afraid!

Bravo. good man.



naznatips said:
bbsin said:
If Halo can keep the Xbox(1) afloat then.... GranTurismo can do the same for pS3, especially if they do the whole GT bundle like always.

I'm not so sure. GT is a casual game and the PS3 is not a casual system.


you being serious? like other people have said, it depends on hhow you want to play it. @bbsin, the GT3 license tests were hard, but in GT4 they were a lot easier, but they put the amount of tests up to about 15 for each license.

One person's experience or opinion never shows the general consensus

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