selnor said: markers said: look blu-ray is going to be the final dominant format before everything becomes straight digital download. if you dont like my opinion fine whatever. but i am not going to change my opinion till its proven wrong, and that cant be done for another 5-10 years. so you know my stance and why now i am done with this subject :]   All I'll say is the industry believes its on the way out now. Plenty of articles around web. and I believe only in another 2 years. Sales are already on the way down.

 

 If the industry believed the way you say we would not be seeing fire sales of DVD at 5$ every week at shops like Best Buy.

I can't believe either studios or even retailers make any profit selling DVDs at those pricse ( and I'm not speaking of 10 years old movies, more like movies that came out 2 years ago or so..)

Any way in the coming next 2 months we will have for the first time release of this year April-July blockbusters movies in Blue Ray with no other HD format competing. This will be the true test...

It's foolish to expect people to migrate to Blue Ray by buying first low budger/low special effects movies.

If people are moving to Blue Ray they will buy first the movies which will benefit the most from it ( and which people believe are most worth it, I doubt most would drop 27$ or so in a so-so movie, but it will be interesting to see for example how well this year's batman does in Blue Ray when it finally comes out)...

 Personally I know I bought 1 Blue Ray in the last 8 months and I have already 4-5 movies I am planning to buy in Blue Ray in the next 3 months ( Iron Man, Wall-E, Indiana Jones, Dark Knight,...) 

Ail said: selnor said: markers said: look blu-ray is going to be the final dominant format before everything becomes straight digital download. if you dont like my opinion fine whatever. but i am not going to change my opinion till its proven wrong, and that cant be done for another 5-10 years. so you know my stance and why now i am done with this subject :]   All I'll say is the industry believes its on the way out now. Plenty of articles around web. and I believe only in another 2 years. Sales are already on the way down.    If the industry believed the way you say we would not be seeing fire sales of DVD at 5$ every week at shops like Best Buy. I can't believe either studios or even retailers make any profit selling DVDs at those pricse ( and I'm not speaking of 10 years old movies, more like movies that came out 2 years ago or so..) Any way in the coming next 2 months we will have for the first time release of this year April-July blockbusters movies in Blue Ray with no other HD format competing. This will be the true test... It's foolish to expect people to migrate to Blue Ray by buying first low budger/low special effects movies. If people are moving to Blue Ray they will buy first the movies which will benefit the most from it ( and which people believe are most worth it, I doubt most would drop 27$ or so in a so-so movie, but it will be interesting to see for example how well this year's batman does in Blue Ray when it finally comes out)...  Personally I know I bought 1 Blue Ray in the last 8 months and I have already 4-5 movies I am planning to buy in Blue Ray in the next 3 months ( Iron Man, Wall-E, Indiana Jones, Dark Knight,...)

I'm not saying that noone will buy them, but what we need to do as well is compare BD to how many download or stream these new releases which is what the industry is saying. Because BLU Ray at current levels is not profitable enough for the movie industry. Take Apple for instance, they supported BLU ray from day one and there is yet to be a single MAC with a BD drive. I mentioned most things in my previous posts above with links. But I feel it was the wrong time to launch a new medium of an old old tech that is the beloved spinning disc.

there are mac's with blu-ray and im pretty sure you had, or atleast you do now within the last 5 months, the option to have a blu-ray/dvd since "day one"

^ oops scrub that. Macs have had them availble since April. My bad.

If the industry thought BR is out than they wouldn't bother to release anything on it.

Unlimited digital downloads don't provide profits for the studios and if it doesn't provide profits then they will support and push the format that does...

Everyone keeps talking about what the consumers are doing, but are forgetting that BR won the HD war because of the studio support and billions in investment.

Prices will come down, and soon, and then there will be no reason to buy DVDs.

Talking about the demise of BR so early in its cycle is premature. (remember when everyone was burying the PS3 prematurely)

Blu-Ray has a big uphill battle, with movies costing more then DVD, not as many advantages as DVD had over VHS, digital distribution, and streaming HD movies online. It's all competing and right now the online formats have many more advantages over Blu-Ray as well as online capable TVs in the works that will hit the market in no time, online is the new format and saving to DVR.

It'll end up being cheaper, better for the environment, and much easier. Sadly it'll kill the movie rental business though.

Gnac said: 1) The majority of people replace their TV sets only when they break, so add about 5-7 years to your estimate.

No, here, the majority of people replace their tv for football or rugby world cup, sometimes for Euro football cup.

We have massive rebates on TVs for these events.

^^^^Dont i just know it

all my friends have a hdtv and are getting a ps3 or bluray player. i mean my brother girls grandad has a 52inch samsung tv. and a ps3, he is like 70+ years old, if he can get one anyone can.


Plus i think bluray is going to increase in sales alot in 2009. dvd's are a really good format.

Its still to early to judge IMO. They will never reach 50% by the end of the year, but they could reach 30% untill 2010 IMO, and that would be huge...

I know around here in Japan, Blu-ray has a much better market share than it does in the US. Blu-ray recorders are very popular because it is a great way for people to record their HD shows and keep the same quality. I don't think the US has any BD recorders as of yet because of all the red-tape to get through the Copyright laws.

Here, they sell BD recorders and BD-R discs at grocery stores. BD-R discs only run about $3-6 each, with $6 being for BD-RE.

Anyway, I've always seen BD taking off more when recorder drives in computers / standalone drives get cheaper. I'm not sure why there is such a big technology gap between Japan and US. I do remember in 2005 when I was in Japan, stores were primarily displaying HDTVs while in America, they were still displaying SDTVs, primarily. 2007 is when we started seeing HDTVs more in America.

With Digital Downloads eventually (which they are still at .6% of the US Video market according to NPD), Blu-ray recorders could be a nice asset for storage.