It looks like BD is losing ground to DVD, even when you only take into account the top 20 which mitigates DVD's library advantage. As of the last week, Nelson had BD down to 8% market share -- significantly lower than antipcated by Sony.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080923-blu-ray-stutters-in-face-of-tough-economy-hd-downloads.html

Arstechnica notes: And HD movie and TV downloads are becoming more popular than ever—many of them are even free, thanks to ad-supported streaming—and the short-term outlook for Blu-ray looks a little grim.

Why do you think BD isn't being adopted?  Certainly there are people out there who want HD content and are willing to pay a premium for it, although I doubt it will be more than 50% of the market anytime soon.  Do you think BD will ever reach the 50% number that Sony claimed they'd have by the end of 2008?

I would have bought a PS3 over my 360 if BD were $20-$30 Instead of $35-$50

I greatly doubt BluRay will ever reach 50%

It's simple:

People who download media: Young.

People who buy physical media: Old.


Have the eyesight to notice the detail of 1080p: Young.

Can't see shit: Old.

There are many older people who can't fathom paying for a "download", they need physical media.  The problem is that generation of consumers is aging, and their eyesight can barely tell the difference.

the price of the bluray movies, need to drop too around $20 to $25. not the normal $30 + they are right now. if they drop in price and can get some studios to release a big name movie on only bluray and not dvd, then sales might increase enough to warrant more of this strategy.

The only BDs that are $35-50 are the pornos(these are up to $79) and multi disc sets<--- which is negated if you price per movie. I just picked up The Godfather collection for $58 for all three films and 5 hrs of extra HD content, not a bad deal...

OT: That was too lofty a goal, not realistic, HDTV's would have to have a 50% market share and that's not even close. It's going to be slow and steady, hell Blockbuster still had VHS to rent up till just a few years ago.

DVD offered many advantages over VHS.

No rewinding, ability to skip to any scene, interactive features, widescreen (rare on vhs), took up less space, and finally: picture quality.


Blu-Ray offers just one advantage: picture quality.

VoD will be the true next format, not another disc

America is literally a bad stock market week away from another Great Depression. I know I have stopped buying movies altogether, let alone paying a bit extra for Blu-Rays. I'm going to have to buy fewer games this fall than I would usually as well. And it's going to get worse before it gets better. Taking up new technology is the last thing on lots of family households at the moment. And the economy getting worse is bad news for the PS3 as well.

Oil had finally dropped into the $90's per barrel and the financial world started crashing and there's gas shortages in the Southeast and it just jumped up into the $120's again. As much as people would love to spend money on better toys, it's just going to have cool down for awhile. The British government, for example, actually came out and told its citizens that their standard of living WILL drop in the next couple years due to the way the world economy is getting destroyed by our lovely government and Wall Street and bad mortgages.

It hasn't shown up in the overall gaming numbers yet, but it is inevitable. And you could argue, as I would, that people's quest for bargains HAS shown up - in a 10-25% of Wii/PS2 sales that might otherwise be the pricier consoles.

The picture quality edge of brd over DVD is not signifigant enough, with the proliferation of upscaling DVD players, btw...Toshiba, amongst others are working VERY hard at closing hte gap, while squeezing down on the cost to make DVDs...so the cost gap is increasing and the capabilities gap is decreasing...bad news for brd. What's going to be REALLY bad is if Toshiba or others can find a way to squeeze more space onto a DVD.