Successes so far 2008

Lost Odyssey - Strong sales at 780k with a chance to be the first million seller in this genre. It got decent reviews and reception. A good lead for 2008.

Tales of Vesperia - Good opening week sales of 100k in Japan and moved roughly 30,000 Xbox360s in Japan given the boost in the leading weeks and the impressive spike for the release week and above average trailing week sales.

Failures so far in 2008

Ninja Gaiden - came and went without a fuss, more a failure than success due to wasted potential more than anything else.

Too Human - So far not looking good for this game. At this point I would consider it a failure until proved wrong or otherwise.

Games to come 2008 (S)Exclusives

Tales of Vesperia U.S release. 08/26

Infinate Undiscovery U.S 09/02, EU 09/05, JP 09/11.

Fallout 3 U.S 10/07 - (S)Exclusive downloadable content.

Fable 2 U.S 10/21

Last Remnant U.S E.U JP 11/20

My thoughts on the JRPGs/WRPGs

Microsoft is releasing a quartet of (s)exclusive JRPGs this year and Microsoft has expended its resources to give this genre a priority. This push has already seen some key dividends with the TOV and LO sales and the aquisition of FFXIIIs multiplatforum status.

This genre is a priority for Microsoft this year for several key reasons IMO, which are not limited to just Japan. The main goals imo are:

1. To round out the lineup of games so that the Xbox360 can cater to a wide variety of hardcore to niche gamers and all the different combinations of taste to widen the potential market for the Xbox360
2. To distinguish the Xbox360 from the PC gaming side to help the Xbox360 differentiate itself better in markets where PC gaming is strong such as the European/Asian markets.
3. To further improve the Xbox360s standing in the Japanese market to give the Xbox360 and future Xboxes a chance to improve its chances in this important market for developers/gamers.

On the WRPG side, things haven't gone to plan so far with the loss of the Sacred 2 exclusivity and the critical failure of the Too Human game. However Fable 2, the key to the WRPG side of the equation is still looking good and it should provide a good synergy with the remaining JRPG releases for 2008. Even being on its own now, Fable 2 looks like an excellent game to tip the balance firmly towards the Xbox360 in the WRPG genre and the Fallout 3 downloadable content is just icing on the cake. As there aren't many major releases previously in this genre, every big release is still disproportionately important so its important not to diminish the importance of Fable 2.

Tying it all together and concluding.

One common feature with all these RPG games is that they all only require an Xbox360 Arcade to experience fully. Microsoft is using its own price advantage to play to the strengths of this RPG lineup. Rather than pushing games that would require an Xbox360 Premium such as shooters to experience online, they are pushing games which are designed as single player experiences so they are playing to their own strengths wisely and in this battle they are fighting under their own favourable conditions.

This is a solid strategy, They are using their strenghts in concert and they are diminishing some of their key weaknesses which have held them back previously.

Feel free to agree or disagree. :)

i dunno, made me buy an xbox360 and i swore that i'd never buy another microsoft console ever again a few years back.

I agree with you and Fallout 3 and Fable 2 will be the biggest RPG this year.

Success. I love RPGs

Ninja Gaiden, an RPG?

I think it's working, to some degree or another. Even a single week of victory over the PS3 in Japan has a big symbolic value. Whether this is all worth the cost is another question.

Securing FFXIII as a multiplat is probably more significant than any single exclusive in your list, though. It may not add to the 360's traction in Japan due to regional PS3 exclusivity, but it means a lot in the other regions.

So far only Tales of Vesperia had some success, since Lost Odissey didn't even reach 1 million so there's doubts about whether it was profitable or not.

On the other side, Ninja Gaiden 2 is not an RPG, so you shouldn't count it on your flops.

I wouldn't have much hope for the DLC of Fallout 3. Bethesda always makes terrible overpriced Downloadable content.

You are right about the rest, except that they release the games playable on Xbox 360 arcades out of necessity. It would be pretty stupid if a game doesn't work on a few millions 360s because the developers/publishers didn't want to spend an extra on DVDs. The only games that do require a hard drive are the ones that possess some huge database, such as Football Manager.

I was torn between PS3 and 360, leaning PS3.

Now, with FFXIII and all those other games sooner, I will be getting a 360.

Indeed, the RPG's only take an arcade and a single controller to enjoy, so even I (sorta anti-Microsoft) couldn't resist if the price dropped to the rumored $200.  Unfortunately, my little bro would want Live since all his friends are on it, so I'd probably need more than just the Arcade.  Strangely enough, even if I'm not buying the Arcade, if it were $200 I'd still feel more pressured than ever to pick up a 360.

I never seriously considered buying a Microsoft system until recently - I must say, they're doing a damn good job.

Fable II should be a big hit, but I have no idea how well IU and TLR will sell

LO has seen impressive sales. Tales has had a great start in Japan and fable 2 is still coming. How Fable 2 does will really decide if it was a success or not but I do know there has been increased rumblings in hardcore circles of people (who wouldn't have been interested otherwise) talking about buying and/or considering a purchase of the box, this especially came to a head when final fantasy went multi-platform.

This years lineup is quite diversified.

You've got the RPG's (no need to mention them)
The casual tittles (lips, viva 2, scene it etc)
some established franchises to keep existing owners happy (gears 2)
And the increasing relevance of the xbla games (one only needs to look at the sales of geometry wars 2 and braid to see how much more important that market segment is becoming). Plus castle crashers is yet to be released.

Microsoft has the games, the question is will it convince consumer this coming holiday season? I hope so, but if microsoft drops the price the consumer may not have a choice.