So far only Tales of Vesperia had some success, since Lost Odissey didn't even reach 1 million so there's doubts about whether it was profitable or not.
On the other side, Ninja Gaiden 2 is not an RPG, so you shouldn't count it on your flops.
I wouldn't have much hope for the DLC of Fallout 3. Bethesda always makes terrible overpriced Downloadable content.
You are right about the rest, except that they release the games playable on Xbox 360 arcades out of necessity. It would be pretty stupid if a game doesn't work on a few millions 360s because the developers/publishers didn't want to spend an extra on DVDs. The only games that do require a hard drive are the ones that possess some huge database, such as Football Manager.







