What a great thread ....

On one hand we have several well thought out posts with solid arguments why the PS3 will not see the sales or lifespan of the PS2; and on the other hand we have people who ignore all posts and respond with "Nu-Hun, My dad's tougher that your dad" ... I mean "Nu-Hun, the PS3 is going to sell way better than the Wii"

Its very difficult to take posters seriously when the only way to interpret their post is that Sony has voodoo power which kills their competition's lifespan early and can bring dead console's back to life.

 When Blu-Ray becomes Mainstream the PS3 will no longer be the cheapest Blu-Ray player and will be among one of the slowest still on the market.

I also think it takes more than your brother's girlfriend's grandad to win a generation. Just sayin'

i'm sorry, what? that's a stupid comment in my opinion. generalising all ps3 fans into one impression is getting rather old. do you honestly think that every ps3 fans thinks the same?

If you read his comment he didn't generalize for all PS3 fans ... If I say that "Americans are in Iraq shooting innocent civilians" does that mean that "Every American is in Iraq shooting innocent civilians", or that "Every American in Iraq is shooting innocent civilians", or that "There are American's in Iraq who have shot innocent civilians"?

Sheesh.. Let's all kick dirt on their faces and while we're at it spit at 'em for voicing out an opinion.

Argue well please, but quit the name calling. You sound like a mislead brat.

Using your example and employing accurate mathematics.

Sony PS3 units sold = 14.6 million
Launch 11/06
Present 08/08
Time since lauch 1 year 9 months = 1.75 years

14.6 / 1.75 = Units sold per annum = 8.342 million

10 year lifecycle would point to 83 million units sold if sales remain static.

well if Nintendo release a new console after 5 years it will be a "next gen console", wich means the PS3 is "old gen" and who really give a crap then? probably just the most "hardcore" sony fans.

This topic calls for a classic. After all, a picture is worth a thousand words...

With that out of the way...

I believe the topic creator's predictions are flawed in three ways: Firstly, one cannot linearly extrapolate annual sales, as they will increase to a peak after several years, then decline slowly afterward.  Secondly, the console wars have always been heavily based on self-sustaining momentum caused by a feedback loop of sales, word of mouth, and development.  In that, the Wii already won this entire generation pretty much right out the gate.  Finally, as others have pointed out, the history of the console wars has shown that it is the winners, and not the losers, who will keep a console on the market the longest - the latter are always the ones to design and launch a new system first so as to try and recapture marketshare.

nope i was wrong, not even this can make it more ridicules

11ht11 said: Smeags said: This thread is brought to you by the word of the day:   lol,   im joking sony fans lol

lol that's the proof of the cells ability making babies ^^