I'll look for it but I don't remember what I used ...

In general though ... this site used to have yearly summaries in North America and Japan which demostrated that Nintendo held about 20% of each market with the second place publisher in japan and third place publisher in North America sitting at (roughly) 5%

Thing is a good game doesn't necessarily have big sales. Ookami is a perfect example. So while it's obviously much more lucrative for a developer to make games like nintendogs, for the gamers it would be a very bad thing. And while MS and Sony make games mainly designed for gamers, Nintendo makes games that will sell a lot. Sometimes they make good games that sale a lot (like zelda and pokemon) but sometimes they make awfull games that sell a lot (like nintendogs and wii sports).

Wii - 7 year life cycle - minimum 60 million

the pace right now will push Wii past 10 million sometime during August. that's 10 million units in 10 months. end of year will see Nintendo's big 3 which i estimate will push sales around 15 million at end of year (the biggest pusher of those being Mario Galaxy). such a fast growth in user base will be very attractive to publishers. good 3rd party support and Nintendo titles will have Wii selling at a steady pace in 08 and possibly continue in the years to follow. i gave a minimum of 40 million but i think the momentum it has is just the beginning of life cycle that will end in sales around that of the PS2 if not exceeding it.

Xbox360 - 8 year life cycle - minimum 35 million

while it is faring better than the original Xbox, the X360 will be passed by the Wii by the end of the year. Wii will take a majority of 3rd party support for titles appealing to casual players leaving X360 with titles only appealing to gamers. even if MS decide to start having more casual targeted titles (either by through 1st/2nd party development or paying 3rd party publishers), X360 is still going to appeal more to gamers and will be fighting PS3 for the developer support of the gamer targeted titles. overall X360 should fare better than the original Xbox but without the mass market support it will only sell double that of it's predecessor. still good but nowhere enough to completely counter the billions of dollars that's been lost on the Xbox franchise.

PS3 - 8 year life cycle - minimum 50 million

although X360 has a slightly decent lead of 7 million, PS3 is likely to catch up soon enough. why? firstly Final Fantasy XIII, Metal Gear Sold 4 and Gran Trousimo 5 are going to sell alot of systems. secondly, it will have consumer support in all 3 major territories. even though Japan will be in Wii and DS frenzy, PS3 will still do well in the region. in Europe PS3 will at least match X360. in North America, if it doesnt catch up to X360 it still wont be far behind. good sales in all 3 regions will mean a healthy amount of developer support. combine that with Sony's increase of in house development and PS3 will have an attractive library for gamers. it will also have expanded audience software but for a long time the price will deter alot of casuals. late in its life they may pick it up but it will likely be too late. not all too likely that it will reach final PS2 sales.

summary

PS3 and X360 will battle it out for HD console of choice. however larger 1st party library and a few more popular 3rd party exclusives will have PS3 push ahead of X360. mean while Wii will be picked up by alot of gamers as a second option (due to some interesting exclusives) and by casuals because it's becoming this generations casual consumer's console through pricing, fun interactive controls and expanded audience software support.

my final sales expectations

Wii - 140 million
PS3 - 70 million
Xbox360 - 40 million

edit: note - i didnt take into account what Blu-Ray will do for PS3 sales because i dont know much about the subject. i imagine if Blu-Ray turns out to be the more favourable HD medium and PS3 prices come down, it may result in alot more PS3 sales for Blu-ray alone. that is if digital distribution isnt yet popular by that time.

Why is Nintendogs bad for "gamers?" I know a lot of gamers that love that game. I know a lot of gamers that love Wii Sports. I personally hate Pokemon, and think it's a game for children -- but I still consider it a game.

How about you stick to "personally, I like Zelda and Pokemon. I personally don't like Nintendogs and Wii Sports," because your suggestion that "true gamers" like Zelda/Pokemon but don't like Wii Sports/Nintendogs is false. 

Another perspective on the suggestion that Nintendogs/Brain Age aren't "real games," or that "real gamers" don't like them:

I meant it would be bad for gamers if those were the only or even the majority of games. Yes pokemon is no more a "real" game than nintendogs and it's my personal preference that makes me love the one and hate the other. But if there were mostly these kind of games I would probably stop being a gamer. Their nice to play once in a while but I don't have the same fulfilling experience as when I play something more substantial like zelda, fire emblem, mgs, ff or the other hardcore games.

Edit: And like I said before Ookami is a perfect example of an insanely good game with pathetic sales. I can honestly say that there isn't a single nintendo game that is as well made as Ookami and the fact that nintendogs is outselling it to like 100:1 really hurts me :/

As long as conventional games are popular enough that developers can turn a profit they will continue to exist.

The fact is that these games people seem to think will be the death of the industry because they are profitable enough that many companies will be better able to afford to spend insane quantities on producing big-budget blockbusters.

If indeed all these games do is accumulate money for the big titles than I'm all for them. As long as the ratio between these games and the conventional games remain the same I'll be a happy gamer ^^ But that's pretty much my only worry regarding Nintendo.

Some of you are NOT considering minimum expectations or understand what that means. Minimum is what is the worst thing that can happen to each console given what we know about the sale numbers.

The worst thing for PS3 is that it continues to sale at this pace and the Wii steals away its interest and weakens its holiday sales as well. Putting the PS3 at struggling to even reach 7 or 8 million for the year. Wii could have massive appeal as it has been with Nintendo raising production and sell about 20 million this year with the 360 selling around 18 million if MS issues a price drop. Looking at comparison's like this developers will definitely start to draw away support and then Sony in its state of reconstruction might decide to pull its video game segment, which has also been a danger through all of this. THAT is the worst case scenerio for Sony. Even 15 million in this scenario is generous but the rules state that the consoles will at least be around till holiday 2008.

What you guys are doing are trying to give some sort of light that sways in your consoles favor, giving your "actual" predictions for the generation in fear of what you might consider if you do what the topic asks, or are trying to be nice to these consoles in order to service the other console loyals on this board. I do like how the estimates seem to be reasonable as lower bounds.  NO console should be above 60 million in their lowest estimations. PS2 took 5 years to even reach 80 million worldwide shipped and it blew the other consoles away. The only console on pace to do better than that is Wii and it is the only one doing things different enough to reach outside of the current amount of users with game systems. Compare 360, PS3, PS2 on the game charts. They are all on the same path because they appeal to the same consumer. Then compare Wii and DS. These are on similar sales paths but have MUCH higher potential than 360, PS3, or PS2, which means they are most likely going into a market not yet discovered and can have very unpredictable results.

Hard to believe this thread is longer than the May NPD thread.