Hmm, the big question is why do 360 games sell so well? The attach rate is just obscene.

The attach rate isn't as obscene as you may think.  Even the GC had a higher attach rate at over 9 per games sold per system.

In fact, attach rate is a very bad metric on its own.  Time plays a huge role in the increase of an attach rate but is not part of the attach rate formula.   To explain, let's hypoethize a scenario.

Say all 3 7th generation console owners buy 3 new gamers per year.

The X360 has now had 3 years worth of sales which would give an average of 9 games per console.
The PS3 and Wii at the same rate would have just 6 games sold per console with their 2 years on the market.

The X360 appears to have a higher attach rate, 9 to 6, yet the actual sales rate is exactly the same, 3 per year.

Skewed logic. Say 30% of 360 owners have had their 360 for the full 3 years, 3 games per year is 9 games, the other 40% had theirs for 2 years, 3 games per year is 6 games ... the other 40% bought thiers last year, 3 games per year is 3 games

 The same is true of other consoles though. The important part is the old users have had a longer time to build up a library of games to off-set the new users who haven't bought any as yet.  Lets suppose 70% of Wii owners have had their system for 2 years (clearly wrong) and 30% have had it one. Buying 3 games a year would give an attach rate of 5.1 assuming an instal base of 10 million (for ease of calculation). If we assume the 360 has the exact same instal base and use your numbers the system would have an attach rate of 5.4.

 Edit: Your numbers actually add up to 110%. Using them as is would obviously give a bad result. Consequently I knocked the 30% of users having it 3 years down to 10% which would put your arguement in the most favorable light.

LOL Crazzyman strikes again!!!!!!!!!

Easily it is the wii, but it will take more time because most games take around a year to even hit a million. When i look at the list of wii games that are released right now i see around 70 that i'm almost sure will hit a million eventually, and there's gonna be some that come out of nowhere and have good legs to sell a million. This seem to happen with the wii a lot. When i look at the 360 sales i see some games that will hit a million soon, but not a lot of slow burners that will hit a million in late 09 or 2010. Madden 08 is gonna hit a million probably late 1st or early 2nd quarter 09 and it was released in august 07.

It's not skewed logic, it's a baseline set of figures.  It simply established the factor of time and how it plays a role in the increase of an attach rate.

If you'll note, the numbers were just for averages.  If you want, we'll use the same 3 game per year average but apply some real hardware sales figures to the formula.

X360:
Year 1 - 5.5 million x 3 = 16.5 million software
Year 2 - 13.3 million x 3 = 39.9 million software
Year 3 - 23.0 million x 3 = 69.0 million software

Total - 23.0 million   ||  125.4 million software = 5.4 per console.

PS3:
Year 1 - 5.6 million x 3 = 16.8 million software
Year 2 - 16.5 million x 3 = 49.5 million software

Total - 16.5 million  ||  66.3 million software = 4.0 per console.

See how even though the sales rate for software was equal, time has given the actual attach rate advantage to the X360 even though both console sold the exact same number of units per console owner per year....3.

I think your bigger flaw is that there is a set number of games sold.  (for instance i buy about 1 game a month since ive owned my console, granted this dosent work out to when i made the purchases, but rather a divide of my current owned units vs time ive owned the console)  .what if there are years people dont buy games in there? or most people buy more games, your guessing at a base average before making the formulas for the rest of it, so it fails to start with. generally as the user base grows attach rate will fall, this was seen in the ps2 last time through. the wii will began  to suffer from this, it does have the advantage in the states of a perma bundle with will slightly scew its numbers. (though i think all three need a perma bundle, and that practice should have never ended). the ps3 should start to see its number gain on the 360, and the wii, unless the ps3 really is suffering from a combnation of blueray only purchases or just people not buying games. I doubt either of these is true.

to sum up, the quicker your user bas is growing the lower your attach rate will be over time. there are ways to slow this down bundle, is the best way. the slower your console moves units the higher its attach rate will be. 

the 360s attach rate took a bit of a slide the last part of the year, that would have been worse if not for bundling, and 2 large fast selling games. 

Goddog, of course I used the same sales rate or the point wouldn't make any sense. And that point is that time skews an attach rate in favor of the oldest console.

You're kidding yourself if you think the attach rate goes down as the years go on. Go look at the attach rates for each of the consoles since 2005/2006 using equal weekly dates.

You are correct that a console with an insane sales rate will have a lower attach rate simply because software sales won't keep pace and vice versa.

High demand software plays another role, thought temporary, but that's not easily factored into an attach rate now is it?

no its not.

but the main issue is the assumptions you set up are not valid. and would only work in a vacuum. the variable in these functions of attach rate are far more complicated. and time is a minor aspect of it by its self. Units moved, games release per unit of time, and hits per number released are fare more important. pac ins, bundles, and used sales rate all effect attach rate in far more serious ways. avalibility of games, average price, age of average consumer. marketing budget. 

what im getting at is your simplifing the metric far to much as i did to try and push my point to invalidate yours.  you cant limit this attach rate to after 05/06, look at it in the prior genoration. 

you brught up the gamecube of last generation, and that should invalidate your point v too, if you compare its ending attach rate vs ps2s, where the ps2 was on the market first