Which console will have the most million sellers?

[goddog]

Viper1 said:

seece said:

Viper1 said:

Comrade Tovya said:
Hmm, the big question is why do 360 games sell so well? The attach rate is just obscene.

The attach rate isn't as obscene as you may think.  Even the GC had a higher attach rate at over 9 per games sold per system.

 

In fact, attach rate is a very bad metric on its own.  Time plays a huge role in the increase of an attach rate but is not part of the attach rate formula.   To explain, let's hypoethize a scenario.

 

Say all 3 7th generation console owners buy 3 new gamers per year.

The X360 has now had 3 years worth of sales which would give an average of 9 games per console.
The PS3 and Wii at the same rate would have just 6 games sold per console with their 2 years on the market.

The X360 appears to have a higher attach rate, 9 to 6, yet the actual sales rate is exactly the same, 3 per year.

 

Skewed logic. Say 30% of 360 owners have had their 360 for the full 3 years, 3 games per year is 9 games, the other 40% had theirs for 2 years, 3 games per year is 6 games ... the other 40% bought thiers last year, 3 games per year is 3 games

 

 

It's not skewed logic, it's a baseline set of figures.  It simply established the factor of time and how it plays a role in the increase of an attach rate.

If you'll note, the numbers were just for averages.  If you want, we'll use the same 3 game per year average but apply some real hardware sales figures to the formula.

X360:
Year 1 - 5.5 million x 3 = 16.5 million software
Year 2 - 13.3 million x 3 = 39.9 million software
Year 3 - 23.0 million x 3 = 69.0 million software

Total - 23.0 million   ||  125.4 million software = 5.4 per console.

 

PS3:
Year 1 - 5.6 million x 3 = 16.8 million software
Year 2 - 16.5 million x 3 = 49.5 million software

Total - 16.5 million  ||  66.3 million software = 4.0 per console.

 

See how even though the sales rate for software was equal, time has given the actual attach rate advantage to the X360 even though both console sold the exact same number of units per console owner per year....3.

 

 

 

 

I think your bigger flaw is that there is a set number of games sold.  (for instance i buy about 1 game a month since ive owned my console, granted this dosent work out to when i made the purchases, but rather a divide of my current owned units vs time ive owned the console)  .what if there are years people dont buy games in there? or most people buy more games, your guessing at a base average before making the formulas for the rest of it, so it fails to start with. generally as the user base grows attach rate will fall, this was seen in the ps2 last time through. the wii will began  to suffer from this, it does have the advantage in the states of a perma bundle with will slightly scew its numbers. (though i think all three need a perma bundle, and that practice should have never ended). the ps3 should start to see its number gain on the 360, and the wii, unless the ps3 really is suffering from a combnation of blueray only purchases or just people not buying games. I doubt either of these is true.

 

to sum up, the quicker your user bas is growing the lower your attach rate will be over time. there are ways to slow this down bundle, is the best way. the slower your console moves units the higher its attach rate will be. 

 

the 360s attach rate took a bit of a slide the last part of the year, that would have been worse if not for bundling, and 2 large fast selling games.