If they are smart they will drop the price for xmas by $200 and market the hell out of Uncharted.

iam beting on nov/Dec, wonder whats the max a consoe has ever sold those two months world wide ?

Personally, I'm expecting something on the order of 18 months or more if something doesn't make sales pick up. Remember, the PS3 has been out for half a year in Japan and it still hasn't broken a million. If I'm doing my math right, assuming no holiday spike at the current 10-12k per week rate it will take them roughly 83 weeks to sell a million more copies. Now there'll be a holiday spike in there somewhere... but HOW BIG is the question, and how will the other two consoles affect sales.

This will all start to become clear this holiday season... but if "normal" year-long sales stay in the 10,000 range per week and gamers don't see a very compelling reason to pick up a PS3, then there's little doubt in my mind that the PS3 will struggle to sell-through ten million units by the second anniversary of the launch.

Why would it stay in the 10,000 range. 10k range is with NO games, none.

I vote for some time early to mid 2009.

I think its much harder to match the 360 sales since the 360 released with no competition. Now that there is competition and people have 3 choices, it will be a much rougher ride. The price also hurts and its current trend of ~100k per month during non-holiday is really bad. They need to average at least 300k a month to reach 10mil by december 2008.... and i just dont see it happening now that most people who wanted one already got one. This thing is not an impulse buy like the PS2 was.

why does everyone think that the PS3 will be quicker to the 10 million mark than the 360? The PS3 is trending BELOW the 360 was.

The only saving grace is GTAIV, but I don't see how well it will move a $600 console when there is a cheaper way to play it.

Overall, I say it will 10 million at month 20

There's a lot of things people are forgetting here...

1) 14 months means January/February '08. Meaning, in the next 7 months, the PS3 is going to have to sell *double* what it sold in the last 7 months. I don't care how big a holiday season they get (keep in mind the last 7 months includes all the launches), it's not going to make up the 3 million unit deficit they owe. Anyone guessing before 16 months needs to explain where this sudden boost in sales comes from.

2) Holiday seasons *are* walls. If the PS3 is anywhere near 8 million by October '08, (which I can't see it possibly being less than), it *will* sell past 10 million during the following two months. Everyone whose guess goes into '09 needs to explain why sales will virtually grind to a halt.

18-21mths

you. are. wrong.

The chart there is flawed. Look at the original Xbox results. Missing anything?

So the 360 isn't selling better than the original Xbox. Does that mean it is as much of a failure? No, of course not -- there are too many variables to say that. The price of the original box was dropped after 6 months, for example, whereas Microsoft's strategy of rebates and bundles during holiday periods is a completely different approach. They've done as well at $400 as the original xbox did at $200.

My bad, someone already pointed that out.

Even with the others data missing, the 360 is still about 400k ahead in the US when you align launches. It's virtually the same in Japan and should pass XBOX this week with Trusty Bell. Europe is a big question mark since we have no data, but there is no reason to expect anything different.

You also have to remember that the 360 has done all of this without Halo.

Come January 2008, the 360 will be leaving the old XBOX numbers in the dust. It already is in America, just look at the charts. While the numbers aren't that different, the arc on the sales graphs sure are. The 360 is gaining momentum while the XBOX was dropping off at this point in its life. It should also be noted that the XBOX had already received a price drop at this point. What happens to 360 sales when they reach the $200/300 price point?

I agree that the 360 has a much brighter future than the original Xbox if Microsoft plays its cards even reasonably well. The sales have been slowing lately, but, as you've said, a price drop should stimulate sales again. Remember, though, that MS was giving rebates and bundles at various points, especially last holiday season. This is tantamount to a timed price cut.

The $200 price point is the key. The 360 is already available for $300.

I don't think Microsoft wanted to be in the same ballpark as the original Xbox with sales. How they play their cards from here on out is critical, and I think it would be unfair to suggest the 360 doesn't have much better legs than the original Xbox.