in 20 months

Maybe it's just me, but I'm having some doubts on how well a $600 console can sell during Christmas. Does anyone have some data to help with that?

I know it seems kind of obvious but it all depends on how things go this christmas for the PS3 if it can sell around 2 million consoles like the Xbox360 did then based just off its weekly sells w/w of about 45k now which seems to be about its stable sales for the non holiday season. So removing November and December and giving the PS3 2 million in sales for those two months gives it about 4.58 to make up at around 45k a week so 4.58/.045 gives about 102 weeks so going from 7 months now plus 102 weeks you get about 32 months from now. That's not really what I think will happen just one application of the numbers for comparison the Xbox360 sells about 80k a week w/w and about 320k a month so that if you gave it a similar launch to the PS3 it would take about 7 months 57 weeks to reach 10 million or somewhere around 21 months. Hadn't really done this before just now but throw in the fact that the Xbox360 did get a boost from the Wii shortages and did compete in a market that wasn't as full as it is now with the Wii and PS3 so maybe those could account for the two months. Don't really think it would take the PS3 until March 2010 to reach 10 million and I'm probably leaving something out of those numbers although it isn't games as the Xbox360 had those and still came out fairly close to its estimate. And for comparison even though its sales haven't really stabilized yet the Wii is selling about 225k a week w/w and assuming similar conditions will reach 10 million in 7 months and about 8 weeks so sometime in late August. Feel free to tell me what I left out here besided telling me just games b/c if that was it the Xbox360 numbers would be pretty far off as well just interested as I didn't expect the PS3 to come out so badly doing a linear extrapolation and spotting the system 2 million for sales for November and December and then returning them back to their line.

14 months I expect and the wii will hit 10 million 12 months, how you say well, heavely sword
uncharted:drakes fortune
ratchet and clank future
haze
assasins creed
gta 4
lair

Those games shoul;d really boost sales by the time christmas comes by, wii has no hardcore games and not in the horizon, the 360 has halo 3 and I think bioshock, but my prediction is that the ps3 will hit 10,000,000 sold to custumers by january 2008, the wii by december. Trust me it wil happen everybody wants a ps3 its just they dont have the $$$600 bukz....

I guess This is the closest estimate... PS3 was launched on Nov 11 in Japan and Nov 17 in the US. So how long will it take for PS3 to hit 10 mil? Given the current sales figures,

Based on Last 1 month average : 37,5 months, by 27 Dec 2009

Based on Last 2 month average : 32 months, by 5 July 2009

Based on Last 3 month average : 20 months, by 13 July 2008  (including European Launch)

Based on 2007 average : 22,5 months, by 21 Sept 2008

As it is obvious from the figures, PS3 cannot possibly surpass 10 million in a shorter time frame than Xbox360, even in the most optimistic scenario that includes boosted European Launch Sales.  IMO, PS3 will pass 10 million sometime between July 2008 and July 2009 (20-32 months).

So you're lising four games I haven't heard of except in PS3 forums and two games that are multiplatform and available on a much cheaper console. How will that significantly boost sales? Is that just like how VF5 and Motorstorm were going to boost sales? The 360 doesn't have any hardcore games but you listed GTA 4 and Assassin's Creed on the PS3. You realize that Assassin's Creed is supposed to be better on the 360 due to the extra processing power, right? The devs said some areas will be improved on the 360 version including artificial intelligence.

The Wii has no hardcore games? What about Godfather? What about Zelda? What about Metroid and Mario and Smash? You'd have to be mad to argue that *any* of the games you listed above for the PS3 will outsell Super Smash Brothers Brawl this year (not counting Xbox 360 sales of GTA4, obviously).

There's no way that the PS3 will have as good of a 2007 holiday season as the Xbox 360 had for their 2006 holiday season. The 360 had several things going for it:

(1) No real competition. The PS3 and Wii were supply constrained, and their existance actually *increased* xbox 360 sales because people who had no hope of getting either of those sometimes purchased the 360

(2) Price. The PS3 is not $300 or $400 like the 360 is. It's $600. And even with a price drop, it will be out of bounds of many holiday shoppers

(3) Game library. Even with big Sony exclusives, which are few and far between, it isn't as compelling as the 360's library was last year. Yes, there should be more games but many of them are ports of previous 360 works or not exclusive in any way.

Will the PS3 have a 1 million unit December in the US? This is possible, but unlikely. Will it have 500k in Europe? Maybe. 500k in Japan in December? Not likely at all. It's already available for ~$400 in Japan anyhow.

Further, the PS3's sales will continue to falter for a while because BD players are now much cheaper than the PS3 and will drop significantly by Christmas. You will find $250 standalone BD players by Christmas (right now good stand alone ones are about $450).

Because of all of this and their faltering sales in Japan, there is no reason to suspect the PS3 will do as well as the Xbox 360 did. And considering where Sony is coming from in this console war, comparing themselves to the 360 isn't somewhere they wanted to be. They wanted to have several times the sales of the Xbox 360, just like they did with the original Xbox.

This is too pessimistic and based on the idea that sales will continue to decline as they have thus far. While it seems obvious that sales aren't going to skyrocket within the next year or so, releasing some very attractive exclusives and addressing the price point issue could bolster sales somewhat. I think suggesting that it will take longer than two years to reach 10 million is a bit far fetched, but I also think it would be very unlikely to reach 10 million as fast as the 360.

PS3 sales seem to be moving at the same rate as the 360 WW looking at the graph, so about 18-20 months looks likely, barring a price drop

13 months.

"IMO, PS3 will pass 10 million sometime between July 2008 and July 2009 (32-44 months)."

The months period was supposed to be 20-32 months! The dates are correct but not the month count. I corrected it. Sorry!

PS : By the way, All of my predcitions are coming true so far, So I will stick to them. What are my predictions, you ask? :)

- Wii will surpass Xbox360 in 3-4 months globally, but will barely surpass in Europe by the end of 2007 and not at least another year in the US.

- PS3 will sell between 5-7 million units by the end of 2007.
- Wii will sell between 14-16 million units by the end of 2007.
- Xbox360 will sell between 12-13 units by the end of 2007.

You can find a detailed analysis for each region and other elaboration :)

wii will hit 10 million 12 months

Yeah, Wii will only sell 1.8 millions during the next 6 months...
You need to check the last months trends.

Being realistic, this is how numbers should be:

360----> 10m---->18 months....20m -----> 30 months
PS3---->10m----->16 months....20m -----> 36 months
Wii-----> 10m----> 8 months....20m ----->18-20 months