I'd say about 18 months.

... that's 14 - 15 months.

Wrong. 14 months is January 11 2008.

Be nice and show him why.

360 launch - November 2005
10 million - June 2007 - 19 months

PS3 launch - November 2006
10 million - March 2008 - 16 months
10 million - April 2008 - 17 months
10 million - May 2008 - 18 months
10 million - June 2008 - 19 months

TheSource predicts - September 2008 - 22 months

 He was correcting someone, so I expected him to double-check :P Anyway, edited my post already.

The more recent numbers are blurred by Europe's launch. I was just checking the comparisson charts, and PS3 goes from the biggest launch, to bottoming out right around 360's worst weeks. But sales may dip even further.

I'd be surprized if it took them the full two years (counting from Nov. '06) to get to 10 million, simply because of the holiday season, but I don't think it will take less than 20 months.

Ahhh, you're right. I just got so many figures from work running round my skull. So I guess I'll have to change my prediction to 17 months. Any which way you look at though, it looks kinda silly for the tens of  thousands of idiots that spewed doom 'n gloom Sony's way just a number of months back.

Well... lets see.

Its selling around 200k/month at the moment. I think it will reach 4mill around the start of September (which is also when the big titles start arriving).

Lets say sales double for the rest of the year, plus another 2m for the Xmas period (WW). 

That makes it around 7.6m at the start of 2008. Sales will settle down to a 1.5x current sales level (say 300k/month). 

Remaining 2.4m units will take around 8months in 2008 - so around August '08 - 21months. (just before when the Source predicts...).

...

Of course, if sales only go up by 1.5x after September, and Xmas only sells an extra 1m units - that makes it around 6.2m for the start of '08 (probably too low). Then it won't reach 10m until Xmas '08 (about 25 months).

I think PS3 will have a stronger 2nd Xmas than 360 did last year, but be weaker in the summer months until they get some games out and get a price drop. I'd predict Feb/March '08.

I think the PS3 will have a decently strong Xmas this year with GTA and Haze.  Next year in the early months, MGS will help sales and once FF comes out, it will sell well.

I reckon you're right and the PS3 will do anywhere between 6-8m by the end of this year, which means it needs to do 2-4m in 4 months....it's do-able.  Especially with MGS potentially coming out early next year.

Also don't forget, that game systems notoriously do well at the start of January as well, people with Xmas money and all.