The month after FF13 is released.

 Lets start at the top, how have you not heard of Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, lair and Haze. There have been multiple threads on this forum and many gaving websites have had previews concerning these games, and nearly every single one has been extremely positive. You also say that Assassins Creed and GTA IV will not shift hardware, but they will

You also say that the 360 has more processing power; what are you on about. There have been reports talking about the video card power, but that is something comepletely differenet

 Now lets move onto your four main points

1. There is no real competition; do you remember that the 360 has struggled to outsell the PS2 for a long while, is that not competition enough.
2.  Price, O.K. this is true, but of course the price is going to drop and most people will realise that it is worth it for all the exclusives
3. What are these amazing 360 games, GRAW and Oblivion, which are all now avaliable on the PS3, plus Uncharted, R & C, probably Killzone, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, maybe MGS 4 + more

You also say that you do not think that Europe will get a 500,000 unit seller, I seem to remember that Sony announced that MotorStorm and Resistance have both been announced as selling more than that

You also say that the PS3's faltering sales in Japan will stop it. I seem to notice that the 360 has only sold about 350,000 units compared to PS3's roughly 900,000 sales.

Personally, I think that it will reach it by January, thanks to very strong sales throughout the holiday season. I would guess that sales will increase a bit in late June and July, thanks to RSV, NGS and Lair 

a little before or after the 360, its hard to tell with everything thats goin on like when the price drop will be

Munkeh for your number 1 isn't the Wii the new PS2 for this holiday season, number 2 who is going to suddenly realize its now worth it that didn't think getting it for $240 under cost was worth it and the exclusives you mentioned aren't bad but its hard for me to believe that combined they will reach the sales of a game like Halo or even SSBB as those will probably sell at least 5-6 million and your top selling game with little competition on the system right now is RFoM at a little over 1 million so say those total reach 5 million do you really think they are magically just going to make the system worth it to those that are still hesident to buy? I say it takes about 24-32 months to pass the 10 million mark.

http://tinyurl.com/3cfkxx

Nearly indentical to 360 on the graph with recent trending not looking so hot. A price drop would certainly bump this, but that would cost Sony a lot of money.

I can't see them instigating a price drop until it becomes obvious that MS is going to do one. At that point they might announce a drop just before MS does to make it appear in the press that MS is reacting to their actions, much like they did last generation with the pre-E3 announcment right before MS's planned E3 price cut.

june 2008....but i think that by that time the distance from the 360 won't be reduced compared to present time (i predict again an advantage of 6-7 million units for the 360)

I would say in about 12 months from now!

Er... I am as hardcore as gamers get and have no idea what Uncharted and Haze are.  I have heard Uncharted mentioned but not even any MENTION of Haze till here...  The definition of a system seller is a game that is so important to people that they will buy a new game system JUST to play that game.  If Assasin's Creed and GTAIV are on a cheaper system, then, as system sellers, THAT is the system that will get the sales boost. 

1. I agree, the PS2 was somewhat of a competition.  Still, nowhere near the kind of competition the PS3 is facing right now with the Wii (and to a lesser extent the 360).  

2. Worth means nothing.  I think the PS3 is worth it, but I still can't afford it.  Affordability matters above all else, and that barrier will not broken by ANY amount of good games.  

3. Again, you are naming games that are (or at least have the chance to be) good, but are new to the market and COMPLETELY untested.  There is no chance of these being system sellers.  They are nice bonuses for people who already own the system though.

Have Resistance and Motorstorm sold more than 500K in Europe, because according to this website they aren't even close.

Yes the PS3's sales are better in Japan than the 360's, but that's like comparing Dumb and dumber.  You are looking at bad and unbelievably bad.  

I like the PS3, but I'm also a reasonable man.  I don't expect it to hit till around 22 months, maybe a little earlier depending on price drops. 

 For number 1, I was simply saying that whoever first said that the 360 had no competition, which is why the PS3 will take longer.

2. you say that they won't reach the sales of Halo, but that is not what I am comparing it with, I am comparing it with the 360's hits of last year, which if I am correct, were GRAW and Obivion. The PS3's top exclusives will easily outdo them.

You can't say that selling over 1M copies for R: FoM is bad, when the userbase is only 3M, with an expanded user base, due to those games and others, quite a few of those games could get around 2M, combined, they could decrease the Halo effect. 

Lair isn't getting released until August last I checked. Rainbow Six Vegas has been available for who knows how long, and NGS is an "exclusive" port of an old game. Software sales for the PS3 should pick up, which is very important, but I'm not sure hardware will do that great this month, or in July.

A good question is, what are the games people OUTSIDE of the forums and internet are talking about for PS3 and 360? For the 360, Halo 3 and GTAIV ... for the PS3, GTAIV and ..... I don't hear much talk about Uncharted, although I know about the game and it looks fantastic. I don't hear anything about Haze. MGS4 is up in the air no telling when that will drop between holiday 07 and before March 08. Final Fantasy definitely not coming this year. What big games are the Joe Schmoe's talking about for the PS3?