TheBigFatJ said:
So you're lising four games I haven't heard of except in PS3 forums and two games that are multiplatform and available on a much cheaper console. How will that significantly boost sales? Is that just like how VF5 and Motorstorm were going to boost sales? The 360 doesn't have any hardcore games but you listed GTA 4 and Assassin's Creed on the PS3. You realize that Assassin's Creed is supposed to be better on the 360 due to the extra processing power, right? The devs said some areas will be improved on the 360 version including artificial intelligence. The Wii has no hardcore games? What about Godfather? What about Zelda? What about Metroid and Mario and Smash? You'd have to be mad to argue that *any* of the games you listed above for the PS3 will outsell Super Smash Brothers Brawl this year (not counting Xbox 360 sales of GTA4, obviously). There's no way that the PS3 will have as good of a 2007 holiday season as the Xbox 360 had for their 2006 holiday season. The 360 had several things going for it: (1) No real competition. The PS3 and Wii were supply constrained, and their existance actually *increased* xbox 360 sales because people who had no hope of getting either of those sometimes purchased the 360 (2) Price. The PS3 is not $300 or $400 like the 360 is. It's $600. And even with a price drop, it will be out of bounds of many holiday shoppers (3) Game library. Even with big Sony exclusives, which are few and far between, it isn't as compelling as the 360's library was last year. Yes, there should be more games but many of them are ports of previous 360 works or not exclusive in any way. Will the PS3 have a 1 million unit December in the US? This is possible, but unlikely. Will it have 500k in Europe? Maybe. 500k in Japan in December? Not likely at all. It's already available for ~$400 in Japan anyhow. Further, the PS3's sales will continue to falter for a while because BD players are now much cheaper than the PS3 and will drop significantly by Christmas. You will find $250 standalone BD players by Christmas (right now good stand alone ones are about $450). Because of all of this and their faltering sales in Japan, there is no reason to suspect the PS3 will do as well as the Xbox 360 did. And considering where Sony is coming from in this console war, comparing themselves to the 360 isn't somewhere they wanted to be. They wanted to have several times the sales of the Xbox 360, just like they did with the original Xbox.
IMO, PS3 will pass 10 million sometime between July 2008 and July 2009 (32-44 months). This is too pessimistic and based on the idea that sales will continue to decline as they have thus far. While it seems obvious that sales aren't going to skyrocket within the next year or so, releasing some very attractive exclusives and addressing the price point issue could bolster sales somewhat. I think suggesting that it will take longer than two years to reach 10 million is a bit far fetched, but I also think it would be very unlikely to reach 10 million as fast as the 360. |
Lets start at the top, how have you not heard of Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, lair and Haze. There have been multiple threads on this forum and many gaving websites have had previews concerning these games, and nearly every single one has been extremely positive. You also say that Assassins Creed and GTA IV will not shift hardware, but they will
You also say that the 360 has more processing power; what are you on about. There have been reports talking about the video card power, but that is something comepletely differenet
Now lets move onto your four main points
- There is no real competition; do you remember that the 360 has struggled to outsell the PS2 for a long while, is that not competition enough.
- Price, O.K. this is true, but of course the price is going to drop and most people will realise that it is worth it for all the exclusives
- What are these amazing 360 games, GRAW and Oblivion, which are all now avaliable on the PS3, plus Uncharted, R & C, probably Killzone, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Warhawk, maybe MGS 4 + more
You also say that you do not think that Europe will get a 500,000 unit seller, I seem to remember that Sony announced that MotorStorm and Resistance have both been announced as selling more than that
You also say that the PS3's faltering sales in Japan will stop it. I seem to notice that the 360 has only sold about 350,000 units compared to PS3's roughly 900,000 sales.
Personally, I think that it will reach it by January, thanks to very strong sales throughout the holiday season. I would guess that sales will increase a bit in late June and July, thanks to RSV, NGS and Lair
add me
