| leo-j said: 14 months I expect and the wii will hit 10 million 12 months, how you say well, heavely sword uncharted:drakes fortune ratchet and clank future haze assasins creed gta 4 lair Those games shoul;d really boost sales by the time christmas comes by, wii has no hardcore games and not in the horizon, the 360 has halo 3 and I think bioshock, but my prediction is that the ps3 will hit 10,000,000 sold to custumers by january 2008, the wii by december. Trust me it wil happen everybody wants a ps3 its just they dont have the $$$600 bukz.... |
So you're lising four games I haven't heard of except in PS3 forums and two games that are multiplatform and available on a much cheaper console. How will that significantly boost sales? Is that just like how VF5 and Motorstorm were going to boost sales? The 360 doesn't have any hardcore games but you listed GTA 4 and Assassin's Creed on the PS3. You realize that Assassin's Creed is supposed to be better on the 360 due to the extra processing power, right? The devs said some areas will be improved on the 360 version including artificial intelligence.
The Wii has no hardcore games? What about Godfather? What about Zelda? What about Metroid and Mario and Smash? You'd have to be mad to argue that *any* of the games you listed above for the PS3 will outsell Super Smash Brothers Brawl this year (not counting Xbox 360 sales of GTA4, obviously).
There's no way that the PS3 will have as good of a 2007 holiday season as the Xbox 360 had for their 2006 holiday season. The 360 had several things going for it:
(1) No real competition. The PS3 and Wii were supply constrained, and their existance actually *increased* xbox 360 sales because people who had no hope of getting either of those sometimes purchased the 360
(2) Price. The PS3 is not $300 or $400 like the 360 is. It's $600. And even with a price drop, it will be out of bounds of many holiday shoppers
(3) Game library. Even with big Sony exclusives, which are few and far between, it isn't as compelling as the 360's library was last year. Yes, there should be more games but many of them are ports of previous 360 works or not exclusive in any way.
Will the PS3 have a 1 million unit December in the US? This is possible, but unlikely. Will it have 500k in Europe? Maybe. 500k in Japan in December? Not likely at all. It's already available for ~$400 in Japan anyhow.
Further, the PS3's sales will continue to falter for a while because BD players are now much cheaper than the PS3 and will drop significantly by Christmas. You will find $250 standalone BD players by Christmas (right now good stand alone ones are about $450).
Because of all of this and their faltering sales in Japan, there is no reason to suspect the PS3 will do as well as the Xbox 360 did. And considering where Sony is coming from in this console war, comparing themselves to the 360 isn't somewhere they wanted to be. They wanted to have several times the sales of the Xbox 360, just like they did with the original Xbox.
This is too pessimistic and based on the idea that sales will continue to decline as they have thus far. While it seems obvious that sales aren't going to skyrocket within the next year or so, releasing some very attractive exclusives and addressing the price point issue could bolster sales somewhat. I think suggesting that it will take longer than two years to reach 10 million is a bit far fetched, but I also think it would be very unlikely to reach 10 million as fast as the 360.
