Personally, I'm expecting something on the order of 18 months or more if something doesn't make sales pick up. Remember, the PS3 has been out for half a year in Japan and it still hasn't broken a million. If I'm doing my math right, assuming no holiday spike at the current 10-12k per week rate it will take them roughly 83 weeks to sell a million more copies. Now there'll be a holiday spike in there somewhere... but HOW BIG is the question, and how will the other two consoles affect sales.
This will all start to become clear this holiday season... but if "normal" year-long sales stay in the 10,000 range per week and gamers don't see a very compelling reason to pick up a PS3, then there's little doubt in my mind that the PS3 will struggle to sell-through ten million units by the second anniversary of the launch.
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