My God. Kwaad, I suggest you look back at the history of these console launches, and put things in context. PS2 had a staggered launch, and took a long time to burn off demand. XB and GC tried to flood the market in comparison, but they still both ended up 20 million behind in terms of install base by the end of 2001. Their launches were tiny compared to the second year numbers PS2 was putting up. What's more, even if you align by launch, it only took PS2 a couple months to catch up to and surpass GC and XB after its inferior launch. Unless the NPD January numbers come back showing PS3 outselling Wii, I don't see how PS3 can catch up in a short period, if it were really is following PS2s path. Things are just different this time. 360 only has a 5 million console lead on Wii, not 20 million, and PS3 launched alongside Wii, and is being outperformed by it so far. And the most interesting numbers are outside of NA. Wii has a good chance to pass GCs lifetime sales in both Europe and Japan by next Xmas. The NA launch of Wii may be similar to GCs, but Wii is well over 1 million sales ahead of where GC was in Japan at this time. And Kwaad... Yes, PS3 is a trojan horse for Blu-Ray, but is it worth it? Right now, PS3 is eating through the profits of the whole rest of the company... Even with PS2 raking in the cash, the PS division is looking to go 2 billion into the red... Even if Blu-Ray wins the war, there is nothing that says Blu-Ray will totally surplant DVD... Sony may find out a year or two from now that the only people buying Blu-Ray discs are PS3 owners... And then maybe 3 or 4 years from now, what if a digitally distributed HD format with greater flexability rises up? What kind of window does that leave Sony to even begin recouping their investments... Basically, the business strategy behind PS3 is a very dangerous one (and this is an opinion repeated by many many analysts), and the console's profitability could suddenly fall back on game sales like always... At which point you can officially say sacrificing customers for Blu-Ray was not worth it.

I really do not have a good guess because the major titles (almost all of them except MGS4) has been pushed back. I would consider any system sellers to be unknown ones this year. "Well...given the fact that the Wii only has a few good games out for it...I would consider 4.5 million a considerably greater success." The Wii had zelda.... thats lke launching the PS3 with FFXIII. I would have expected it to push so much because galaxy and prime are expected soon. "Yes, PS3 is a trojan horse for Blu-Ray, but is it worth it? Right now, PS3 is eating through the profits of the whole rest of the company... Even with PS2 raking in the cash, the PS division is looking to go 2 billion into the red..." Sony saw this coming. They also announced the losses before the system even hit markets. I am sure that Sony ( who's been around for quite some time and pulled stuff like this before) Knows what they are doing. It never ceases to amaze me how people can think that this 60 year old multi-billion dollar company does not know what it is doing. Time is the only factor here and you can try to analyze this but this market is volitile and sony has alot more up thier sleeve than both nintendo and MS combined. The only company that tries so many seperate ventures in thier game industry was Sega. Pay attention to growth. What has sony done? How are there first party studios regaurded now? It is always some new catchphrase isn't it. AAA games or "Killer app" (I wonder who started refering to a game as an app) now Disruptive technology. The PS line has been successful because of games. Not only there largest ones but thier huge library of titles that gained cult followings. I am pretty sure I can name quite a few that didn't sell well but left marks on peoples hearts. Point to numbers, business stratagies, ideolgies all you want. The end result is games, the deciding factor is already in play. We will see who becomes a market leader this year and then we will see a shift next year. If I had to guess: 2007 1. 360 2.Wii 3. PS3 2008 1. PS3 2. Wii 3. 360 Call me crazy but this is what I believe.

"It never ceases to amaze me how people can think that this 60 year old multi-billion dollar company does not know what it is doing." Oh yeah, like Beta and UMD. They've got it alll down. Yeah, Sega tried all this...and they got messed up. Don't get me wrong though...I think Sony's got a great plan, and their move with Blu-Ray is dangerous but probably smart....it's just not guaranteed success though.

CDs made it possible to have to efficiently(enough to give the PS1 the win) deliver those games and made them relatively cheap compared to cartridges. I suppose you can say hat the Bluray is Sony's own disruptive technology to a lesser degree but they are aiming at a totally different market rather than creating a new one from established markets which is Nintendo's strategy.

Thats the point. They never had to exit their respective markets did they? I understand Beta was a classic case but UMD never was set for market integration. There were no home, players or burners so as far as it failing as a movie format on the PSP it is fine and not really that big of a deal (I hope they will ease up on resolution restriction though) BUt I am guessing that is the case again. Even if bl ray fails it is still a PS3 medium.... on that happens to hold 25 to 50 gigs. I think that is actually comferting to know.

OMG are you serious... downloadable HD video... OMFG that is the funniest thing I've ever seen. I love downloadable stuff... But still. The price isnt right. Hasnt been right. And wont be right. The video format is there. It's called AAC. It is the Compressed HD format both HD-DVD and BluRay support. (also used for all HD content on PS3) The problem is. 2 minute trailer = 100megs. 100 minute movie = 5gb. I can see ALOT of compression problems at that ratio. I would reccomend running 4x higher bitrate. Problem with that is. The movie would then be 20gb on your HDD. And not everyone is like me and has a 250gb hdd. When DVD first came out. Lets download that BluRay movie. 50GB. HOLY CRAP. I could fit 2 of them on my computer. Not to mention it would take almost 2 days to download it... And I would have to have unlimited free downloading once purchaced... because I aint archiving it on anything. Downloadable HD content isnt comming for at least 3 or 4 years. The *average* Broadband connection would have to be well over 10mbit. It would take almost 14 hours to download that at 1MB/second. It would take me over 30. No thank you. I'll stick with buying a scratch proof/idiot proof Disc.

Sony may be an old company, but the videogame market chews console makers up and spits them out like nothing. Of the dozens and dozens of companies to ever make consoles, only 3 have continued until this day, only 2 of which have ever earned 1 red cent from the business. Big companies, little upstarts, toymakers, consumer electronics companies, software companies... All thinking they knew what they were doing, just getting torn apart by the home console market... Sony took a MASSIVE gamble with PS3. It is not yet clear if it will pay off. Yes, it does just come down to the games, both the "killer apps" and most importantly the size of the library, which is why Sony should be worried that their two competitors are both quickly catching up on both fronts, while having less of a cost:value hurdle to get over, and being better prepared to further improve that ratio with price cuts. This market is momentum based, and right now Sony seem to be losing the momentum.

You do allot of casual bragging, don't you?

Downloadable HD content isnt comming for at least 3 or 4 years. -------------------------------------------------------- And if it came that soon, it would leave only a very short window for Sony to profit from Blu-Ray in. They aren't going to profit from Blu-Ray in 2007, maybe not in 2008, and you think 4 years from now, 2011, digital distribution of HD content may be feasible? And what if consumers latch onto lower quality video which has more cross-platform capabilities? MP3 is lower quality that CD, but it caught on due to being more flexible. Practically all media format switches involve greater ease-of-use and flexibility for consumers. But right now Blu-Ray is reducing cross-platform flexibility... There are far too many question marks out there to have any faith in Sony's PS3 strategy.

This thread is hilaroius. I never tire of reading what sony fanatics have to say. All the random non-relevant stats...the staunch "predictions" etc, etc. Why do people assume sony always knows what they're doing or whats good for the customer. This is the same company that put rootkits into their music CD's secretively because they figured their customers wouldn't know or care. not to mention the many arrogant pompous statements from sony execs that probably will end up hurting them. Nintendo, as a company has been pretty clean and they make statements with actions, not words, and I applaud them not only for the innovatoin they have brought to the table, but the way in which they handle their business conduct. I don't UNDERSTAND even why PS3 backers feel like they should downplay the Wii's success. Like so many before have said, the wii is not a direct competitor to the PS3. It targets a wholly different audience, people that would have never bought a console to begin with. The traditional gaming demographic have the choice of PS3 vs 360 vs PC(I guess), and then a second choice of ...."do i want to pick up a wii for casual/social gaming?". It's not stealing market share from the PS3, more than likely, its helping introduce more market share into the gaming market.