The PS3/360 also seem to appeal to Western developers more (developers, not publishers, such as Rockstar and Infinity Ward) and provide a more predictable, concentrated demographic.

I think a lot of the "play it safe" publishers are picking 1 bird in the hand over 3 in the bush. The profits on the PS3/360 are undeniably lower, but also much more predictable; the Wii's profits are higher, but it's a much tougher nut to crack.

It's like asking horror movie production houses to switch over to Pixar-style development. They're both different types of movies, so it should be easy, right? And Pixar is undoubtedly more profitable. But when your marketing department, directors, and the company's economic model are all built around horror movies, many companies will stick with what they know how to do rather than tread into uncertain waters, even if those waters are nicer.

For really big AAA that will sell 5 millions+ copies, HD platforms are probably more profitable than the Wii actually.

Because the developers get substantially more per copy sold.

Someone mentionned it in another thread, right now you stand to loose more if a game fails and gain more if it succeed on HD consoles...

And this gen there has yet been a big AAA game that failed on consoles...( even a game like Heavenly Sword that was hyped a lot and kinda tanked still sold over 1 million units and probably recouped development costs..)

PS : I know Heavenly Sword isn't AAA but it was hyped like an AAA game before it was released ( it was the big PS3 game for E3 2006) 

i dont think nintendo will do that

Developers get more money per copy sold on the HD systems compared to the Wii? I've never heard about this, why is that? Link to source?

You have serious doubts but your doubts don't make them facts.   Planning and securing funding for Bioshock 2 began while Bioshock 1 was still in development.  Incidently, Bioshock 3 is already planned for as well.

PoP was most certainly planned for over a year ago.  It's using a new cell shaded based engine.  Do you know how long that takes to develop itself?

As a guide, most sequels to big budget franchises are already planned on before the latest sequel hits the streets.  For example, RE6 is already planned for, fuding secured, etc...yet RE5 won't be out until 2009.

No, developers do not.  They get paid a fee regardless of how much the game sells (though many publishers do offer incentives for sales milestones and/or average aggregate review scores.

You might have been referring to the publishers though.  In which case substantialy is still not a valid term.   The difference in $50.00 and $60.00 is not much when development cost itself is higher.

Consider full price game X sells 5 million on Wii and 5 million on HD consoles.   That's $250,000,000 revenue on Wii and $300,000,000 revenue on HD consoles.   $50 million extra sounds like a lot but you have to remove at least $20 to $30 million just in extra development costs vs the Wii (could be more soon because I keep hearing about $40 million and higher budgets).  Ok, you're still left with a chunk of change but $270 million is not substantially more than $250 million.

If you were to look at these numbers from a financial standpoint, wouldn't it make sense to develop for both?  If you want to talk substantial difference, try this.

$300 million on a $30 million budget or $550 million on a $42 million budget?

Bold part 2.  Ail, for Flying Spaghetti Monster's sake, you're on a sales tracking web site.  Use it.  The term AAA is pointless because we're discussing budget here.

Lair - Major bomb.
Enchanted Arms - Bombed.
Stranglehold - Major bomb.
The Darkness - Bombed.
Dark Sector - Bombed.
Lost Planet - Bombed on PS3.
Haze - Not doing so good.
Condemned 2 - Lost money.
Unreal Tournament III - Currently losing money.
Virtua Fighter 5 - Lost money.

Keep in mind I'm not suggesting they would have made more money on Wi just that you said they don't fail on HS consoles and they most certainly do.

Ever notice how many studio closures we've had this gen so far?  Or how mnay studios are consolidated and merging?   Ask yourself why that is.

I also think part of it is that some of the big parties might prefer for the Wii to fail and continue to hold out from giving Wii support with quality big budget games in the hope that the lack of 3rd party support will eventually cause Wii sales to slow down.  So they continue to make their big games on PS3/360 and continue to hope Wii is a fad.  Reason I think they might prefer Wii to fail is that if Wii dominates this gen they are going to be forced to be creative.  With PS3/360 they can just keep releasing more of the same with better graphics or in the case of sports games releasing the same game each year with updated roaster.  But the Wii forces them to be creative to see success in their games first because of the limitations of the Wii hardware but also because of the Wii remote.  I think most developers lack creativity to achieve this and so are unhappy with the success of the Wii.

^ That would be the case, but theres nothing restrictive about the Wiimote and all the various other input devices, if PES becomes the winning style of play on the Wii then they won't evolve it anymore, ask their publishers starting throwing around words like 'risk' and 'time loss'.

I mean look at EA - they basically out-right just said we are stealing PES controls and making it better. It's just a matter of "show me the money."

Actually it will use a technique that is similar to cell shading.  Yes, those are concept art but it's still the art direction the game will portray.  It will not look like previous iterations.

Oh, and Ail...one more bit about the game.  It was proven to be in planning back in Septermber of 2006.

Is any of the titles you listed a big hyped AAA game ? ( ok maybe Lair, but I can't say any of the other was really a big title in which a lot of expectation was put..)

PS : We've had closures and merges but we've had studios expanding greatly too. Overall I don't think the industry as a whole contracted but rather that it expanded...

We've had this discussion a few weeks ago, regarding profit margins, but we'll throw it down again -

Average HD game development for AAA title runs roughly about 20 mil. Wii AAA development runs about 5 mil.

Lets say that both versions sell 1 mil copies. The Wii version sells for 50 per copy, and 60 on the HD version.

On average, after retail fees, manufacturing and distribution, there is an expense of $25 per copy, bringing the income per unit to 25 and and 35 respectively.

The Wii version made a total of 25 mil and the HD version 35 mil.

Wii version cost 5 mil to make, making a margin of profit at 20 mil

HD version cost 20 mil to make, making a margin of profit at 15 mil

So with that, we now have numbers to play off of. As it stands, the developer has enough money to make another 4 Wii games free of development expense, and would have to invest 5 mil to make another HD game. Consideration has to be made for the fact that there are 2 HD systems, and these numbers would only imply 500k each or some variation leading to 1 mil. This is where the strength of multiplatform development comes into play. So the argument can be made that HD games made for both systems might be more profitable than Wii standalone development, but exclusive games on HD systems will not be as profitable as exclusive Wii games.

What does this all solve or mean? It means that it depends on the developer's viewpoint. Development for the Wii means that the company can sustain future products on the back of successful published games, gaining larger profits in the long run. Development for HD systems in a multiplatform situation (Xb360 and PS3) have potential to reach a combined larger audience (though not dramatically so - 32 mil as opposed to 27 mil) and hope to sell twice as many units as a Wii exclusive. This would allow for a larger up front profit if 1 mil sells on each of the 2 hd platforms (10 mil more) but only allow for 1 more HD game to be made using those profits.

If you want to crunch numbers off of those stats, if the subsequent games were 1 mil sellers per system, the Wii version could make 4 games off of its profit, making a total next wave profit of 80 mil. The HD version would allow for 1 more game to be made, keeping it at 15 mil profits.

In conclusion, it all depends on what the developers plans are. Quick up front profit, multiplatform HD games are the way to go. Long term sustainance in the industry (important for newer and indie devs) Wii development is the way to go.

I think this may have been my longest post ever. :D