Voltaire said: Yeah, triple AAA like spygorgs!

Triple Triple A? Is that like another multiplier, so it would be a AAAAAAAAA Game?

bardicverse said: Ali said: For really big AAA that will sell 5 millions+ copies, HD platforms are probably more profitable than the Wii actually. Because the developers get substantially more per copy sold. Someone mentionned it in another thread, right now you stand to loose more if a game fails and gain more if it succeed on HD consoles... And this gen there has yet been a big AAA game that failed on consoles...( even a game like Heavenly Sword that was hyped a lot and kinda tanked still sold over 1 million units and probably recouped development costs..) PS : I know Heavenly Sword isn't AAA but it was hyped like an AAA game before it was released ( it was the big PS3 game for E3 2006)     We've had this discussion a few weeks ago, regarding profit margins, but we'll throw it down again - Average HD game development for AAA title runs roughly about 20 mil. Wii AAA development runs about 5 mil. Lets say that both versions sell 1 mil copies. The Wii version sells for 50 per copy, and 60 on the HD version. On average, after retail fees, manufacturing and distribution, there is an expense of $25 per copy, bringing the income per unit to 25 and and 35 respectively. The Wii version made a total of 25 mil and the HD version 35 mil. Wii version cost 5 mil to make, making a margin of profit at 20 mil HD version cost 20 mil to make, making a margin of profit at 15 mil So with that, we now have numbers to play off of. As it stands, the developer has enough money to make another 4 Wii games free of development expense, and would have to invest 5 mil to make another HD game. Consideration has to be made for the fact that there are 2 HD systems, and these numbers would only imply 500k each or some variation leading to 1 mil. This is where the strength of multiplatform development comes into play. So the argument can be made that HD games made for both systems might be more profitable than Wii standalone development, but exclusive games on HD systems will not be as profitable as exclusive Wii games. What does this all solve or mean? It means that it depends on the developer's viewpoint. Development for the Wii means that the company can sustain future products on the back of successful published games, gaining larger profits in the long run. Development for HD systems in a multiplatform situation (Xb360 and PS3) have potential to reach a combined larger audience (though not dramatically so - 32 mil as opposed to 27 mil) and hope to sell twice as many units as a Wii exclusive. This would allow for a larger up front profit if 1 mil sells on each of the 2 hd platforms (10 mil more) but only allow for 1 more HD game to be made using those profits. If you want to crunch numbers off of those stats, if the subsequent games were 1 mil sellers per system, the Wii version could make 4 games off of its profit, making a total next wave profit of 80 mil. The HD version would allow for 1 more game to be made, keeping it at 15 mil profits. In conclusion, it all depends on what the developers plans are. Quick up front profit, multiplatform HD games are the way to go. Long term sustainance in the industry (important for newer and indie devs) Wii development is the way to go. I think this may have been my longest post ever. :D

Except you can't sustain the maths of 1 Wii games leading to 4 Wii games and so on without saturating the market and then those games start selling a lot less due to saturation....

The gaming market is not so different from the movie market, each year there is only room for so many blockbusters....

And you don't want to release your blockbuster at the same time as the competition, in the same way you don't want to make a blockbuster very similar to the one the competition is making...

That's one issue for big budgets games on the Wii right now. Developers have zero visibility on what is coming, especially from Nintendo, the dominant player on the market. Do you want to take the risk of developing a big costly RPG game and then have Nintendo announce the new Zelda or another RPG game coming out at the time your game was planned ? That's a costly risk that could force you to delay your game release by as much as 6 months and greatly affect the financial results for that year...

The nice thing about HD consoles right now is that both Sony and MSFT have provided very good visibility on their future plans and you can position yourself around that ( anyone knows it would be suicide to release a big budget Racing game on the PS3 around the first half of 2009 with GT5 coming out.. The same way people knew that releasing a mega budget PS3 game in Q2 this year was a bad idea with GTA4 and MGS4 already planned for that date..)

 

Ail said: Except you can't sustain the maths of 1 Wii games leading to 4 Wii games and so on without saturating the market and then those games start selling a lot less due to saturation....

Much like the PS2, as the Wii's userbase continues to grow the number of games that are necessary to pass that saturation point grows and (eventually) the entire industry won't be able to produce enough games to saturate the market ...

Realistically, very few developers would attempt to develop four similar games and release them at a similar point in time on the Wii; what they would probably do is produce a couple of "Casual" games, a couple of moderate quality conventional games, and one really good game and release them at different times throughout the year. This in it self will protect from saturating the market.

@Ail.

Try telling Sony that. 4 Jak and Daxters, 5 Ratchet and Clanks, 3 Sly Coopers, 4 Socoms, 4 ATV Fury's, etc....

Besides, he didn't say they had to be sequels, did he?

Ail said: Except you can't sustain the maths of 1 Wii games leading to 4 Wii games and so on without saturating the market and then those games start selling a lot less due to saturation.... The gaming market is not so different from the movie market, each year there is only room for so many blockbusters.... And you don't want to release your blockbuster at the same time as the competition, in the same way you don't want to make a blockbuster very similar to the one the competition is making... That's one issue for big budgets games on the Wii right now. Developers have zero visibility on what is coming, especially from Nintendo, the dominant player on the market. Do you want to take the risk of developing a big costly RPG game and then have Nintendo announce the new Zelda or another RPG game coming out at the time your game was planned ? That's a costly risk that could force you to delay your game release by as much as 6 months and greatly affect the financial results for that year... The nice thing about HD consoles right now is that both Sony and MSFT have provided very good visibility on their future plans and you can position yourself around that ( anyone knows it would be suicide to release a big budget Racing game on the PS3 around the first half of 2009 with GT5 coming out.. The same way people knew that releasing a mega budget PS3 game in Q2 this year was a bad idea with GTA4 and MGS4 already planned for that date..)

 I'm not so sure I understand how 4 games lead to saturation. A good developer doesn't focus on one genre (a view as to why Bungie will struggle in years to come unless it expands its offerings). I will use my own dev team as an example. Currently we work on a FPS. From there we will either work on a survival horror or a quirky action game, after that we will work on an adventure rpg, and probably after that a snowboarding game. That development time will put us close to or at a decade of development. We could either put out new IP from there, or go back and make a sequel. 10 years between sequels is pretty bearable, no?

 The movie industry differs dramatically from the game industry in many ways, but the most obvious is the TTL (time to live). A movie generally is out of the movie theaters within a month these days, unless it is a bigger title, and then it might last 2 months. A game will sit on shelves for about 4-6 months, sometimes longer, and even after it is off the shelves, it is still available online. There is a much greater urgency for movies to get noticed and make a lot of noise right away. With games, GTA4 and Mario Kart can come out at the same time and if a person has both systems (and the money) will get them both. I often buy games in bulk, meaning instead of 1 game, I get 2-4 games at once and they just sit and wait their turn to be played.... which reminds me I still have Alien Syndrome in shrinkwrap.

Ultimately, people buy games based on reviews or reccomendations, so as long as a game shines through the mediocre stuff, it will still get noticed and purchased. I do understand your point, and it does hold true in the sense of the gamer on a budget, or if choosing a Christmas gift for someone else. Yet, there are still enough gamers out there to meet the numbers I mentioned in my earlier post.

 

now the thread turn into revenue and profit debate??
this should end already.
simple fact:
"Currently" 3rd party developer having nothing huge for the Wii, whatever way you spin it. Wii get Nothing Big Nada while the HD console is getting big announced titles every month. Arguing about future support is full of shit, you cant win. We cant predict what 3rd developers going to do in the future, although its nice we will see some big budget support developing Wii games but as of right now There are nothing announced. In the future HD consoles might rival the wii and 3rd party developers will stick to it till the generation change, or Wii will continue dominate and force them to bring Big budget title to it. When Capcom have the time and budget making "Spyborg" and "Neopet whatever that new game called and listed to appear on E3" you can't spin the fact they are not planing anything huge for the Wii, and Currently is what it counts. Instead of some PR spin about future support, and how of this same scenario we had been hearing from since last year??? Square Enix, Konami, and ect all talk and no actions. If by E3 big publishers have no huge announcement for the Wii then its pretty damn obvious they are still on the other side of the fence with a wait and see attitude.

You make it sound like every game developed is announced the instant they green light it. Just because you don't know about, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Especially when you got people in a position that do know are telling you so.

Stop being a negative nancy for 5 minutes, will ya?

Well done PK9394. Good job on turning an intellectual debate back into fanboy rants. Nice of you to "Gamespot" VGChartz.

Because there is a list of what is to be expected at E3 does not constitute that it is all that will be discussed. GDC, E3 and TGS are events where the company who drops the biggest bomb gets the most press coverage.

So, you wouldn't list Tenchu (being published by Ubisoft, fyi) as a big recent announcement? That's a pretty big title, definitely not a "casual" game. What about Fatal Frame 4? While we're at it, what about Monster Hunter 3? Guess that pretty much slashes the tires of your post, now doesn't it?

@viper
maybe you should come back to reality??? saying something will happen in the future will not guaranteed it'll happened, whats happening now is what it count the most. Saying they are planing some huge in the futuer without a definite time frame is a "Very defensive" statement. until the day I see them announce something big then I'll believe them, as of right NOW there aren't anything big from Capcom. don't get me wrong I do love to see something huge from them in the future, but I just hate the fact they come out right now talking about future without a definite time frame. like I said arguing about a future statement is pointless.

@bardicverse
Fanboy rants??? I"m not a wii fanboy, I got every console from the NES era to current, except ps3 which I can still walk downstair from the house and snag it from my cousin. Shit I bet I got more sony product in my house than you. From Cellphones(k750i,W800i,P900i,W850i, old ass sony erricson model, K850i), TV(plasma), CD players, consoles ps1 and ps2, and many other electronic appliance. I just don't like the fact 3rd party company come out said one thing while their action is contradict their statement. if you read clearly I did stated "By E3" there will be more game getting announce, I was only arguing whats being currently announced.

for Tenchu I'm not sure if the developer is own by Ubisoft and I'm to lazy to look up. you consider those AAA and big buget???? maybe you only slashing your own tires.

@bardicverse

and let's not forget that in order to get the "extra" fundings for Xbox360 and PS3 projects, they develop Wii games with spinoffs (or shovelware) for the audience.