That's not exactly a perfect comparison, but we'll roll with it just the same. Now I don't know if you've seen most cars, but a great deal of people don't treat them that well. To say that they're abusive of them isn't entirely accurate, but it's not far off (negligent is a more fitting term). Maintenance on an inexpensive car tends to be similarly inexpensive, and those cheaper vehicles also tend to be built to handle a lot of mistreatment and negligent behavior. Whereas a BMW is built for looks and style before all else, and a trip to the mechanic's can cost you a whole lot.

Given the penchant for punishment most consumers have towards their vehicles in not keeping them up, a lot of consumers would quickly be trading the normally-expensive car right back in, because their old car wasn't so pricey to keep in good shape. Sure, it doesn't look as nice and doesn't get as many "oohs" and "ahhs" from the neighbors, but at least you're not sinking half the price you paid for it in repairs every three months.

And then there's the branch of consumers who wouldn't want the vehicles because they ARE high-end. I know that probably sounds crazy, but consider: what use does a farmer have for a Mercedes Benz? A pick-up truck would be far more useful to them. Why would a construction worker ever want something like a BMW? The damned thing would get destroyed in no time from all the tools they'd have to lug around in it. The vehicle has no practical value to people whose jobs involve carting heavy things around, nor to people whose use for cars is frequent and not focused on the car itself.

fair point Sky Render but what about when the farmers not on the farm I think maybe a separte more luxury car, and also the fact that for work people will get by with the cheapeast quality tools as possible whereas luxury eg consoles people want the best , . and also im dont think the Miss treating thing applies to consoles ( not to me anyway, I take really good care of my PS3) , but Wii is at a Mass Market price its the in thing thats why everyones going crazy over it, but PS3 is not quite Mass Market atm, so less people have experienced it and therefore less hype about it. but if PS3 started selking like crazy, the hype would be im sure level with Wii and more and more people would want to buy it ie trend

It all comes back to consumer values, really. All discussions of product sales come back to that, really, because it's the central issue in trying to sell a product. To appeal to any given demographic, you have to align your product with their values sufficiently to sell it to them. Ultimately, price only establishes an upper limit to what segments of the market will look at your product. Marketing raises awareness of the product's values (or what the values are purported to be), and expands demographic awareness. But in the end, what counts most is how well the values are met by the product for the group in question.

The PlayStation 3 is a system which can best be described as "safe". In terms of consoles we've seen in the past, it pushes no envelopes and takes no risks. Everything it does was predicted as a logical next step for the industry to go in, and every last component it uses follows a mentality which aligns perfectly to the values of the group of people to whom consoles have sold to most consistently in the past. As a product which appeals to those who hold the values which have seen improvement from the Genesis/SNES to the PS1 to the PS2, the PS3 is the most logical incremental upgrade.

But in being safe, it is also being limited in who it can appeal to. Had the Wii not existed, it may well have drawn in more people who have turned to the Wii, as there would not be an alternative system that better fit their values. But since the Wii does exist, and since the PS3 is safe, that means that anybody who finds their values better fulfilled by the Wii is going to look at the PS3 as a second-rate system, regardless of what it can actually do.

This has happened in a great deal of markets before, even the video game market. 16-bit computers available in 1985 far outstripped the NES, and could do far more, but people still picked the NES. Not because it was technologically better, but because it fit their values better. The 16-bit computers were safe, too, and it did them in game-wise thanks to the NES.

As for people buying extra products for luxury purposes, that is far from common. Frugality is a trait which most people display, as being overly spending-happy can quickly lead to severe problems when the money isn't there to make those purchases. Especially now, in an economy that's in a downturn, the majority are tightening their wallets and getting the most value for their dollar. We who are willing to buy more than one video game system are a market anomaly.

the problem with claiming the wii will beat ps2 sales is that the life cycle is really not understood. i admit it has the chance to make it, but too many things prevent anyone from actually knowing.

hype: the wii is hyped now, but how long will it be? will people be content with playing it at other houses, or will they buy it themselves?

games: do enough people care about the games on wii over others to choose wii. right now yes, but are people waiting for the ps3 (not 360) to come down in price for singstar and buzz? or are they waiting for ff13 or gt5?

third parties: how much sense does it actually make for devs to keep making wii games? even if they do/dont, will it affect sales?

first party: will nintendo reduce their output when they launch a new handheld? will the handheld launch soon? will that affect the rate of sales?

lifecycle: when does nintendo stop trying to support the wii? will they try and draw out its life, or just move on? if they abandon it, will there be third parties to continue it?

Yeah, because both the PSP and 360 plummeted to pre-price cut levels after they became cheaper.

I agree with most of what you've posted, but this is ridiculous. The main reason that the PS3 has sold poorly is its price. At $250, it would be a mere $50 above mass market price point, and hence the problem would be solved. I'm not saying that its sales would match that of the Wii, but they'd obviously see a sustained increase.  

Wii has a chance ...

Though remember PS2's LTD shipments are 130 million (as of 31st March 08).

If SONY achieves its goal of 10 million PS2's shipped in 08 ( which it should easily / it's a 30% decline in sales) PS2 will have 140 million shipped ...

expect SONY to then ship another 5 to 10 million before ceasing production of PS2 ... which gives PS2 145-150million in lifelime sales.

If Wii can pass the 150 million consoles mark then it will have some truly amazing sales -- especially with 360 and PS3 expected to outperform 2nd/3rd placed consoles (most 2nd/3rd placed consoles don't pass 20 million ...) That would mean huge industry growth.

I think Nintendo should aim for PS2's immpressive software sales -- it has like 1.3 billion in LTD software shipments which is incredible ...

The drop-off point of a system after a price drop is not instantaneous, nor did I say it was. The point when a product reaches market saturation for its ability to appeal to demographics is when the drop-off occurs, and lowering the price allows a product to reach that point faster. It can take several years, if the product is relatively new on the market, or it can take only weeks if it's been out for a very long time.