It's too soon, I agree. I'd wait till after the holiday season to make more definite predictions. I personaly find that the PS3 vs. 360 is too close to call as of yet, though I'd bet in the end each will win in different regions.

But, there is also a problem with expecting much to change: it usually doesn't. This site as enough historical data to grasp that. Find me a graph of a console whose sales have noticeably increased after its first real holiday season. You won't find any, except maybe the DS with the launch of the Lite - not even the slim PS2 had that effect. Find me a game that caused a visible spike on the LTD sales of a console. You won't find any, except maybe Blue Dragon, on the 360, in Japan, and only cause its sales are otherwise shity. Hell, find me a LTD graph were you can discern a price drop date! I mean, even the delayed launches, like the as of now impressive and very remarkable PS3 european launch, become insignificant LTD if those sales are not sustained.

Sustained sales after adding another region, and the usual holidays, are the only interesting things you can grasp from looking at the PS2 graph. And that seems to be the pattern for evey single console for which we have data. After the first full year of worldwide availability, it's decided. You can look at the rate, expect it to be sustained the next year, and drop from then on, though it may have a better staying power if it's the maket leader.

 And what the f*** do you know? What is very stupid is to answer the way you did. 

 I made an analysis with a few ifs that IMO could turn around things. Nobody knows how people

will truly react at the end to various things. Nobody, in case you didn't notice, includes you.

Home is different to secondlife for a couple of things, first it will be controlled to be safe for

children, second it revolves around gaming. Another silly thing is to assume that saying Home

can be a hit implies people switching to it from Secondlife... Hell! so bad manners to expose

so poor reasons!  I'm positive Home will neither be the ONLY option to buy or downloas demos,

as some people guess.  Of course it is faster to go to the store and sure it will still be there.

The success factor can be that gamers get to know each other there, chat a bit, maybe

create teams and then go for online play.  It creates a comunity arena where to meet people.

I think it beats meeting somebody while shooting aliens, but you might think differently.

Also, if people seem to like so much the achivements on Live I guess the halls of fame in Home

can also be very successful. These are all possibilitie, time will tell if it succeeds or not. Time, not you.

Review a couple of things, you conclusions and your manners.

cheers 

Why do you guys care whether PS3 out sells Wii or 360. I only care about 1 thing... when will PS3 have more games than Wii and 360?? This will be more beneficial to us, unless you guys get $10 for each console sold. And with a full range of games, it will cause the sale of the console to rise.

 Uhhh what???  If your logic holds true why arent we still playing MUDS instead of World of Warcraft?  They had better stories, depth, customization, variety and were cheaper/free !!  Hell why did we even upgrade from PS2/Xbox??

Can you share video via XBL?

Share music?

 have a place all your own to decorate?

and other people actually see it?

multimedia trophies instead of MUD style achievement points?? 

and uh most people think a life-like 3D avatar that walks, talks, bears a resemblence to you, and carries around a boom box playing your favorite toons asking people if they think they can hang in some Motorstorm , sounds pretty damn cool!!


dont hate! you know Home is going to blow people away !!

Ampillion, it seems you and Albhum were the only ones that read my post. The pricing issue is never going to go away for the PS3. Unfortunately for Sony its the biggest problem.

Ckmlb, its not just about current trends but past patterns as well. The PS3 has several traits that have doomed prior consoles to failure. The biggest of which is its price. If the PS3 was the same price as the 360 a lot of its smaller problems wouldn't be much of an issue. The problem is, as I explained in my prior post, the PS3 will never been the same price as the 360.

At current sales rate from the aligned numbers.

PS3 will NEVER surpass 360. with this fall being the release of the greatest exclusives for 360 (Halo 3 etc.) chances of PS3 EVER surpassing even if it's sales rate were to go up dramaticly is absolutely zero.

 Also unless people stop buying Wiis it will not be surpassed at speed of sales and should beat out 360 sales totalsright befor Halo 3 launch. Of course after that i expect 360 to pick up some more.

I don't believe the PS3 will ever surpass the 360. Nope, just ain't gonna happen.

Why PS3 will surpass?
600-400=200 difference
Both consoles will have a price-drop this year or next year. They won't drop equally with $200 for example. It's possible for PS3, but it's to huge for 360. So 360 could cut with $100. The difference will be smaller overtime.
400-300=100 difference

Ofcourse 360 will be the first at a magical price point of $199. Then again there are no singstar, buzz or that sort of games for massmarket. And there is very very strong competition from Wii. It will be hard to make new franchises for this genre.

When MGS4, FFXIII, KZ2, GT5, Getaway3, HS, Tekken6, DMC4, GTA4, Uncharted, LBP, KH3, WKS, 8days, Wardevil will be released. =)
PS3 will have some chances to surpass x360 worldwide sales.

 You focused on price and not cost.

Cost  

 XBox 360 + wireless adapter +  2 years online = PS3 (with a bigger HD)

X Box 360 + HDVD player = PS3 (again with bigger HD)

If you look at the cost to get up and running they are nearly the same.  It wont take much of a price cut to get 

the PS3 to be a BETTER value then X Box 360.  Its been said in this thread, but Sony needs to put out  a 20GB , no wireless, no memory stick reader version out for $400-$450 immediately.  This model would sale near current xbox levels RIGHT NOW!  (with the right marketing) well and a game that interests the Japanese.