I have collected all the relevant information from VGchartz and got a breakdown of the whole figures to create a trend analysis, based on the past figures, which is a solid and totally objective method to estimate the future sales but with one flaw, that is, its static (not dynamic) and unaffected from future developments like price-cuts etc. But the estimates can be improved after each new weekly data to be even more accurate.

I base my trend analysis on different time frames to get "time intervals" (so that the figures will be more reliable) which are all weekly data based on

- last 1 month average sales

- last 2 months average sales

- last 3 months average sales

- 2007 average sales

for each given region seperately and combined.

Here are the figures...

The blackened parts depict regions where PS3 will never surpass Xbox360 at the given rate. The red parts (namely Japan) depict region where PS3 has already surpassed Xbox360. On the first 2 columns, we see average Xbox360 and PS3 sales and on the third column, how many weeks PS3 needs to surpass Xbox360 in each region and worldwide (The negative red values mean "already surpassed"). This estimate may change depending on what you base it on, whether last months data or quarterly data or yearly etc.

If everything else the same, the figures say, in the given rate, PS3 will surpass Xbox360 approximately,

in at least 176 weeks or never worldwide,

never in America.

in at least 45 weeks or never in Europe and the rest of the world

The "other total" also includes Europe, and this is a static analysis that has to be renewed regularly, so things might change in the future. Also We notice a deceleration in the PS3sales rate and the European launch has disturbed the general tendency, so Its actually too early untill 2008 to say that PS3 will ever surpass Xbox360. However, the estimates will become much more accurate by time as the data are renewed weekly (though I may publish this comparison monthly to provide a meaningfull difference).

You can also find the details for all important European markets. The first country that PS3 is gonna surpass Xbox360 is Spain followed by Italy (excluding the other small market).

The PS3 will most likely surpass the 360 when the next Xbox is released, and the PS3 is still the only Sony console out there, giving it some time to catch up the few million the 360 is still ahead by.

Sorry but this analysis seems pretty pointless to me, except as a purely academic exercise... The PS3 will never surpass the 360 unless events change dramatically, in which case those numbers are pointless anyway.

Hmm, good question... Right now situation looks pretty gloomy for PS brand but this is just a start. To answer this question we have to wait until at least end of this year. Without knowledge about influence of big titles on sale of PS3 we really can't tell anything. Everyone should remember that combined sale of this gen for sure will exceed 100 million mark so this is really very beginning. Anyway I think PS3 will not only surpass X but also Wii.

I believe that what your data is actually showing is that as we get closer and closer to present trends. It will become impossible for the PS3 to pass the 360 unless as NJ5 said, "events change dramatically".

EDIT - retarded post, forget it.

Your comparison is not completely accurate. Don't forget that the PS3 just came out in Europe, so it has a positive influence on the sales, especially the "3 last months" sales.

It seems obvious that it will never surpass the 360 in US, as for the Europe, like I said, it's hard to determine since it just came out and it's normal that it sells more because of that. And for Australia, I doubt the PS3 will still sell in 20 years.

so where's the "When Will PS3 surpass Wii?" thread? It's the only one left =)

Personally, I don't think the PS3 will ever surpass the 360 WW.

to NJ5:

You are right at this early stage but I prepared it as an early scheme and will update it every month, and it will make more sense by time.

to JHawkNH:

"It will become impossible for the PS3 to pass the 360 unless as NJ5 said, "events change dramatically"."

Exactly! This is what I am showing in this graph, but there are a couple of points to mark...

- Xbox360 finally surpassed PS3 sales in France after Germany and the UK, the biggest European markets. So PS3 is in real trouble in there. But Its far from the end in Europe, because even a small glitter will sparkle PS3 from the ashes and its relatively far easier for PS3 to catch Xbox360 in continental Europe (excluding the UK) compared to the US and the UK. If PS3 comes in range to a reasonable price soon, it will definitely surpass Xbox360 in Europe, in monthly sales and possibly in overall sales somewhere around 2008 or 2009 because European people respect the "playstation" brand a lot more than xbox/ms. However the world domination over Xbox360 may never come due to strong American Xbox360 sales and the lost momentum.

X360 can't win against PS3 because of few factors but the most important is Japanese market (30 million to divide) and fact Playstation brand is much more casual players friendly than Xbox. When prices of all systems drop I believe PS3 will attract casual gamers on much larger scale than X. Current situation of PS3 is awful but it's a result of highest price and lack of software. I believe even with current price PS3 will start to outsell X everywhere when titles worth name of next-gen arrive.

Also fact steamed and much cheaper X360 doesn't trample defenseless PS3 right now means something.