When will PS3 Surpass Xbox360?

[freedquaker]

I have collected all the relevant information from VGchartz and got a breakdown of the whole figures to create a trend analysis, based on the past figures, which is a solid and totally objective method to estimate the future sales but with one flaw, that is, its static (not dynamic) and unaffected from future developments like price-cuts etc. But the estimates can be improved after each new weekly data to be even more accurate.

I base my trend analysis on different time frames to get "time intervals" (so that the figures will be more reliable) which are all weekly data based on

- last 1 month average sales

- last 2 months average sales

- last 3 months average sales

- 2007 average sales

for each given region seperately and combined.

Here are the figures...

The blackened parts depict regions where PS3 will never surpass Xbox360 at the given rate. The red parts (namely Japan) depict region where PS3 has already surpassed Xbox360. On the first 2 columns, we see average Xbox360 and PS3 sales and on the third column, how many weeks PS3 needs to surpass Xbox360 in each region and worldwide (The negative red values mean "already surpassed"). This estimate may change depending on what you base it on, whether last months data or quarterly data or yearly etc.

If everything else the same, the figures say, in the given rate, PS3 will surpass Xbox360 approximately,

in at least 176 weeks or never worldwide,

never in America.

in at least 45 weeks or never in Europe and the rest of the world

The "other total" also includes Europe, and this is a static analysis that has to be renewed regularly, so things might change in the future. Also We notice a deceleration in the PS3sales rate and the European launch has disturbed the general tendency, so Its actually too early untill 2008 to say that PS3 will ever surpass Xbox360. However, the estimates will become much more accurate by time as the data are renewed weekly (though I may publish this comparison monthly to provide a meaningfull difference).

You can also find the details for all important European markets. The first country that PS3 is gonna surpass Xbox360 is Spain followed by Italy (excluding the other small market).