I think for christmas 2007 the PS3 will show important sales victories in Europe, Australia, Japan (duh!) and other asian countries. For North America I expect sales to go neck to neck, mainly due to the release of Halo 3.

I expect the PS3 to surpass the XBox 360 total hardware sales somewhere late in 2008 and finally when a slimline version appears and the PS2 is retired to dominate significantly over the XBox 360.

The PS3 won't surpass the 360 in Worldwide sales. So never would be the answer to the topic starters question.

erm, I don't know if you noticed this but:

1) PS3 isn't exactly lighting Japan on fire right now. In fact, if it wasn't for the Xbox360 taking up the words, "dismal failure" would come to mind

2) Casual gamers don't buy Playstation "Brand". They buy games that they want and they buy the mass market console. That will be the Wii first, the 360 second, and the PS2 third. The reason the PS2 was the casual friendly console last gen was because it had the biggest userbase, the most games, and the better price (excepting the Gamecube, but the difference was very small). Now, the 360 has all those thee things over the PS3, and all the PS3 has left is its brand. Which is good for the first few million but it won't get the casuals on board.

The reason the 360 is not smoking the PS3, but only soundly beating it, is because it is not mass market friendly either. 

While a price cut and game releases may boost PS3 sales, the 360 has those things coming also, with Halo and an already cheaper price point, so I think it's very unlikely that the PS3 will ever catch up.

 QFT, totally

I would agree with that if it wasn't for the fact that the japanese seem to have basically booted Sony out of their market.  85%+ of Japanese software and hardware sales are Nintendo. With DQ on a Nintendo system and the Japanese not really caring that much about FF anymore (FFXII sales in Japan were horrid) I would say they will never recover the Japanese market.  Leaving them only Europe and America to really combat the 360 with.  I say if they get a 150-200 dollar price drop this year they will pass the 360 before the end of the generation.  If not, then they will never pass them.  The PS3 will never hit the casual purchase range though (under 300 bucks) and the 360 won't until it's too late to make a difference against the Wii.  The Wii will end the generation with 50% + of the market share.

1.) PS3 will sell decently in Japan when games arrive. X360 will not sell even with games. I'm pretty shocked so many people doubt in PS3 success on this market because of some failure especially when it's extremely easy to explain low interest of consumers.

2.) Don't underestimate the power of PS brand Everyone knows Playstation and for totally uninformed fathers it's a synonym to electronic entertaiment. Believe me it will work perfectly with combination of low price. If you think all people who already bought PS3 made it because of brand you are totally wrong. Gamers who buy a system on launch day exactly know what to expect and gives credibility to manufacturer not because of brand but because of some previous positive experiences.

1.) They already had Gundam, which was supposed to be a huge Japanese killer ap, AND a holiday (golden week) and the sales never budged an inch.  The Japanese market is lost to Sony and Microsoft both for the remainder of the generation.

2.)  That's right.  It is synonymous to fathers who are uninformed, and when they go to a game store and ask about it, they get informed in a big way.  $599.  Then, as a casual consumer, they say "well, what's a cheap game system I can get."  The store clerk then replies "yeah, we have a PS2 here for $130 with lots of great games, or there is the Wii, which is really popular right now for $250."  This is why Wii shortages are boosting PS2 sales, and why the PS2 will never meet it's resting place till the Wii is meeting demand.  Where is this low price combination you are hoping for?  Mass market has been proven time and time again to be under $300.  Sony is never going to make it there this generation.  By the time they are that low Wii2 will be out for the same low price with much better features, graphics, and some new Nintendo stuff that we can only dream of.

You can believe what you want, so do I. Time will tell. PS3 has a lot of time to change everything.

Agreed