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Forums - Sales Discussion - My unpopular prediction: The Xbox 360 Will outsell the PS3 - Q3/Q4

I think the PS3 line up will be a bit weaker than 360´s this holiday. Its biggest game left is MGS, which will have lost it´s selling power in november.
It is quite clear from Sony´s sales estimates that the PS3 won´t see a pricecut.

I don´t see the Xmote doing much, but a pricecut will definitely help a lot in the US. I think 360 will be the HD winner there.

But outside the US the PS3 is much more popular and I don´t think 360 can outsell it worldwide ever again.



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1. Doesn't it have that already? It does. It's the ongoing cry the 360 "has the games".

2. Rumors. This is beyond a predicition now, it's a prayer to God. A+B+C = PS3 since november 2006.

3. Not confirmed either. And it will take more than a controller and "Miis" to cater to the Wii audience (read: games able to compete with Nintendo games, and IMAGE, mental positioning) and that's counting with this controller being designed "perfectly" and improved significantly over the Wiimote. If it's just a lame copy or a little different it will be worthless.

4. Based on rumors #2 and #3, it doesn't make a strong case for predicting pricing. Boy you're grasping at straws here if you think MS is going to add features and drop the price. Asking for the drop alone is a lot (as God is certainly telling you by now) MS is in the middle of reducing costs and preparing to manufacture a better chipset for the 360. They're also into profitability, so they won't cut the price just when they get the chance to make better profits from it. In the not-so-long run the new chipset will surely allow them to cut the price, but it's naive to think making possible to produce the better chipset didn't come with a substantial money investment in the first place.

5. RROD elimination is irrelevant. They are still selling, and more than last year, aren't they? It's not like MS will start advertising : "Now with 0% RROD New X360!" and casual gamers will go: " WoW! Xbox 360 with Xmote, wifi, larger HDD for just $50 more than Wii! And I get 0% RROD guaranteed....err, what's RROD?"

Won't happen.



Squilliam said:

My prediction is that from Q3 until the end of this year the total sales for the Xbox360 worldwide will exceed the PS3.

Here are my reasons for this prediction:

1. The Xbox360 games library to be released this year is both of high quality and it is diverse in genres and scope. The Xbox360 will be stronger in the RPG, Action, Shooter and Strategy genres. It will make a compelling choice for any gamer especially those that like the Action or RPG genres as they have not been catered to well so far. The games being offered encompass a wider market share and some do not have competing offerings in the competitions lineup so far. Standout games like Fable 2 or Too human are perfect examples of this.

The lineups seen pretty even to me.  Also, wait for the games to come out before bragging about how great they are.  (see Haze)

2. There have been many rumors floating about with regards to things such as:

A: Wireless support.

B: Increased HDD size.

C: Blu Ray.

All 3 will increase, not decrease console cost.  MS need to drop their price.

3. The Xmote. Since it has practically been confirmed that it is real I think this adds to my case. The Xmote serves as friendly remote for media centre use and as a game peripheral. As a game peripheral, it will be supported. There are too many games where it would be a "No-brainer" to include support for it. Strategy games, Flight Simulation games - Scifi in space or contemporary, practically any PC port you want to throw at it would count also. It makes sense to include it in games like GOW2 and once that happens, support will be universally included in the Unreal Engine.

Most games that support motion control will not have the 3mote be mandatory. They will be designed for the standard controller, and just have motion controls tacked on after completion.  I can almost guarantee that Gears2 will not have motion controls.  Even if it does, no one will use them.  Gears2 will be designed to work perfectly with the standard controller,  the Xmote will not be a better control option.

Since the Wiimote works so well, theres no reason to suspect that motion controls won't work well on the Xbox360. I would go as far as to say that it would work better, because the Xbox360 isn't as limited in scope by the performance of the machine than the Wii. They also have the benifit of hindsight.

Learning from the Wiimote, sure, that makes sense.  Better graphic meaning better motion controls? Not sure why they would.

The Xmote works on three levels. It makes a straight cross shop between the Wii and the Xbox360 Arcade possible as they would use the same controls. It expands the control options for existing and future games, and makes ports between the Wii and Xbox360 more realistic. Lastly, it provides a point of difference between the Xbox360 and the PS3. An edge when they essentially compete for the exact same market.

Here come the waggle Minigame/PS2 ports!  Seriously, how many non-nintendo motion control games from the Wii would you like to see come the 360?  Maybe 3: BoomBlox, Z&W, NMH.

4. Heres how I believe they are going to change their pricing and specifications.

Arcade: Add Xmote and wireless, (maybe add a 20gb HDD) keep the price or drop to $250.

You are adding $240 in retail components: (1) wireless adapter - $100 retail (2) 20GB HD - $90 retail (3) Xmote  - ~50 retail, and dropping the price by $30 as well??  After MS dropped the price only $20 in their first 30 months?  Good luck with that.

This is their Wii competitor, and value option for people who just want to play games and aren't likely to go online. The price depends on how much an Xmote costs them to bundle, and whether or not they decide to add a HDD. They may keep the price higher and use the Xmote as a way of differentiating the Pro and Arcade SKUs.

Nintendo has the casual gamers wrapped up for this generation.  MS should just focus on what they do well.  (Online, hardcore)

Pro: Increase HDD size to 60gb, Add wireless and drop the price to $300

So, for $50 more than your arcade version, you would get 40GB more and no Xmote.  Not a good deal. 

This is the bread and butter machine. The specsheet tweaks are needed because this is meant to be a workhorse media centre/gaming platform. It can't do that without access to media, nor a place to store it. The increase to 60gb is also psychological, I used to work it computer retail and the unwashed masses are still more impressed by bigger numbers. A slightly cheaper price and an increase in specifications should push this system to even greater sales numbers. The extra profit from Live activity should more than offset the costs involved to increase the specifications. This needs to be a solid system, it seems a little weak when compared to the PS3 offerings currently. A lower price should help bring more people into the market who could otherwise not or would not buy the machine at $350.

Elite: Add wireless, Blu Ray, keep the price at $450.

This is the Halo machine, not literally. It gives Microsoft a direct competitor for consumers who want Blu Ray and it gives people the impression that the Xbox360 is an equal machine in Pro/Arcade configuration to the PS3. The difference being Blu Ray. The problem of just having a lower price is that it makes the product seem less valuable, one of the lessons Nintendo seems to have learnt also.

MS should avoid Blu-ray.  Let Sony be distracted by pushing their HD movie standard.

5. RROD eliminated. There has been a cloud hanging over the Xbox360 brand ever since the problems started being reported. With the Jasper/Falcon updates I am confident that the machines manufactured now are reliable. When word filters down about this, and console owners are definately media/internet savvy the word will slowly spread and those people who had been put off with nagging doubts can finally put them to rest.

Done.

MS needs a console redesign (slim version), and needs to publicly state that the RROD is a thing of the past.  Internet rumors that your console is more reliable will not sway consumers. 


 



there are some other high profile games on the PS3 even after MGS comes out:
FFXIII and Versus XIII
Gran Turismo 5
Infamous
White Knight Chronicles
Afrika
Tekken 6
and many more

Please take note that some of these games will be delayed until 2009(or later)



^After MGS? Are you kidding with that list right?

Before those add : Resistance 2, Motorstorm Pacifica Rift, Socom Confrontation and the ultimate family/casual/anygamer game: Little Big Plantet.

These are games with an audience and will move consoles.



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this is a pretty flawed analysis, but it's already been picked clean by everyone else. this definitely will not happen.



DMeisterJ said:
Err....

Your whole post is based off of speculation.

Speculation that the PS3 won't receive a similar price drop
Speculation that Blu-Ray will be in the 360
Speculation that the HDD size will be upped.
Speculation that the X-Mote is real
Speculation that wireless will be added to the 360
Speculation that they'll add wireless and more hdd space to certain skus, but actually DROP the price
Speculation that the X-Mote will be well received
Speculation that none of the 360 games will be pushed back
Speculation that sony will sit on it's Arse and not announce anything coming this holiday season for the PS3

Etc.

So, basically, your whole post is speculation, and based off of no factual evidence.

Try again.

 Sceculation is the definition of PS3 fanboys...



why does the 360 which is almost half price of ps3, not sell more consoles worldwide than ps3?

my prediction is that more people want a ps3 than a 360



...not much time to post anymore, used to be awesome on here really good fond memories from VGchartz...

PSN: Skeeuk - XBL: SkeeUK - PC: Skeeuk

really miss the VGCHARTZ of 2008 - 2013...

darthdevidem01 said:
I hope you noticed

That Q4 LAST YEAR PS3 OUTSOLD Xbox 360 despite.....360's huge games..

oh but your forgetting the "x-mote" :P



My feeling is we'll know if MS is serious about this generation or not at E3. If MS fails to introduce a new hardware design at E3, then that will be the signal they have given up this generation.

They only way they are ever going to get rid of the RRoD baggage is to introduce a new design. There are people who associate the current box with RRoD, even if the internals are changed. In addition, the current model is starting to look clunky and dated. They really need a smaller, quieter, sleeker model desperately.

If they don't introduce a new model, then they are content to be this generation's Gamecube. Which isn't necessarily a horrible thing. But they will need to learn from their mistakes if/when they come out with a third generation console.